Hello and welcome to my homepage last

updated January 26, 2020

 

Hi, I'm Ernie Barsamian and thanks for dropping by my homepage. As you can see, I am a novice at creating a webpage but it has been a fulfilling experience nonetheless.

So who is Ernie Barsamian ?? (and who really cares???)……………

I was born and raised in West Roxbury, MA and graduated from the Roxbury Latin School in 1977 and the University of Pennsylvania in 1981 (BSE in Chemical Engineering but don’t ask me any thermo questions). At Penn, I was a member of Sigma Nu fraternity. Following Penn, I worked in Sudbury, MA, Enfield, CT, Keasbey, NJ and Danbury, CT for the Union Carbide Corporation. I was in their Linde Division which is now its own company è Praxair. During my time with them in NJ, I played semi-pro football for the New Jersey Oaks. Following all of that fun getting dirty in the plants and on the football field, I went back to graduate school and received an MBA in Financial Management from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1987. After all that nonsense, I was married to Jeanine Hearne in 1988 and we now have 3 sons ages 29, 28 and 25.

Since then I was employed with Hess Corporation in a variety of different functions. One of the most interesting was a 2-year stint at their refinery in St. Croix, USVI shortly after we were married!  I recently retired from Hess after a 28 year career.  Now I have my own company:

www.thetanktiger.com

Let me know what you think about it!

I invite any fellow alums, former worker buddies and old friends to drop me a line and let me know what you're up to.

All in all, it’s been great so far!

So what do I do for fun …here are some of my Hobbies and Interests:

 

         OTHER HOBBIES

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The one hobby that has turned into an addiction is :

$$$ INVESTING $$$

….$$$ My Worthless Commentary $$$ ….

First of all, I’m just another investor like you. I’m not a licensed securities professional or a financial advisor (nor do I want to be) so in no way should this be construed as me providing information to anyone. This is not investment advice, just a reflection of what I’m doing presently in the market. So take it for what it’s worth => PLEASE è everyone looking at this website should do their own homework. Anyway:

 

 Here are all of, what will be, my 14 open positions for stocks that I bought using my quantitative investment model which I describe below, I will be adding to the  open positions during the course of the year.  Read more about $$$MR. MARKET$$$ here:  www.mrmarketishuge.com

                       
  These are all of my open positions:                
                       
  STOCK DATE IN  PAID    NOW   GAIN TARGET  S&P Purch Date   S&P Now  S&P GAIN    
  COHR 2/2/2018        259.77        165.06 -36.5%     299.11       2,762.13         3,295.47 19.3%    
  ESNT 7/11/2019          48.91          51.33 4.9%       56.73       2,991.91         3,295.47 10.1%    
  CASH 12/6/2019          35.80          37.69 5.3%       41.23       3,145.91         3,295.47 4.8%    
  ATKR 1/24/2020          40.76          40.93 0.4%       46.94       3,295.47         3,295.47 0.0%    
                       
                       
  And here is a listing of ALL of my closed trades entered since April 2016:        
                       
                       
                       
  STOCK DATE IN DATE OUT  PAID   SOLD  GAIN ANNUALIZED GAIN  S&P Purch Date   S&P Sale Date  S&P GAIN  
1 SMMF 4/14/2016 5/2/2016          16.82          19.38 15% 309%         2,082.78      2,081.43 0%  
2 HBCP 5/13/2016 11/11/2016          28.00          32.43 16% 32%         2,046.61      2,164.45 6%  
3 THO 7/29/2016 11/22/2016          76.32          88.13 15% 49%         2,173.60      2,202.94 1%  
4 PATK 7/7/2016 12/7/2016          63.56          73.49 16% 37%         2,097.90      2,241.35 7%  
5 CNNX 11/18/2016 1/25/2017          21.96          25.43 16% 85%         2,181.90      2,298.37 5%  
6 AMAT 12/2/2016 2/21/2017          31.26          36.45 17% 75%         2,191.95      2,365.38 8%  
7 WD 2/24/2017 5/3/2017          40.13          51.57 29% 153%         2,367.34      2,388.13 1%  
8 MPX 12/30/2016 7/12/2017          13.73          16.09 17% 32%         2,238.93      2,443.25 9%  
9 ATHM 7/26/2017 8/11/2017          49.05          58.53 19% 441%         2,477.83      2,441.32 -1%  
10 TSBK 8/14/2017 9/26/2017          26.70          31.44 18% 151%         2,465.84      2,496.84 1%  
11 LRCX 8/31/2017 10/16/2017        165.94        192.15 16% 125%         2,471.65      2,557.64 3%  
12 LGIH 10/24/2017 11/21/2017          56.92          66.36 17% 216%         2,569.13      2,599.03 1%  
13 IPGP 12/1/2017 1/16/2018        228.48        263.95 16% 123%         2,642.22      2,776.42 5%  
14 ANET 11/17/2017 1/19/2018        232.80        268.92 16% 90%         2,575.85      2,810.30 9%  
15 EDUC 1/23/2018 3/19/2018          20.00          23.06 15% 102%         2,839.13      2,712.92 -4%  
17 MASI 3/7/2017 8/2/2018          93.69        108.75 16% 11%         2,378.25      2,827.22 19%  
18 NSP 6/19/2018 8/23/2018          99.82        115.00 15% 85%         2,762.59      2,856.98 3%  
18 NVEE 8/10/2018 11/9/2018          82.34          94.97 15% 62%         2,853.58      2,781.01 -3%  
19 NXST 2/23/2019 3/12/2019          91.39        105.88 16% 340%         2,792.67      2,791.52 0%  
20 MTCH 10/12/2018 4/23/2019          53.12          61.86 16% 31%         2,767.13      2,933.68 6%  
21 PAGS 5/31/2019 6/20/2019          32.19          37.34 16% 292%         2,767.13      2,954.18 7%  
22 SEDG 5/16/2018 8/7/2019          67.85          78.12 15% 12%         2,722.46      2,881.77 6%  
23 CZZ 6/28/2019 9/12/2019          13.12          15.36 17% 82%         2,941.76      3,009.57 2%  
24 CRUS 5/19/2017 12/10/2019          64.51          74.38 15% 6%         2,381.73      3,132.52 32%  
25 PAYC 8/23/2019 1/13/2020        256.56        296.84 16% 40%         2,847.11      3,288.13 15%  
26 NVR 12/29/2017 1/24/2020     3,509.57     4,043.03 15% 7%         2,673.61      3,295.47 23%  
                       
                       

 

 

Wow! Is that 26 CONSECUTIVE profitable closed trades in excess of 15%?    That's ridiculous.  I am amazing.  I am HUGE!!    I am unconscious!! I am $$$MR. MARKET$$$.

The market is very volatile right now but you have to believe that the odds favor some upward movement once all uncertainty shakes out. No matter what happens in the market, there are HUNDREDS of stocks setting new highs every day. Pay attention to earnings earnings earnings. Drop me a line if you want to share some investment ideas or if you want to hear about my latest hot stock pick.

 

HOW MY STOCK PICKING MODEL WORKS

 

 I developed a stock-picking model when I was in graduate school to take advantage of the bullishness the market was exhibiting at the time. The premise was to invest in high beta stocks while trying to limit my downside exposure in the event of a stall or downturn. By using the quantitative steps in the model, stocks are selected that are experiencing sustainable price momentum. Over the years, my model has evolved to make it more effective and easier and easier to use by anyone.  The model is a multistep screening and high-grade process that goes something like this:

  1. First, create a universe of about 200 stocks that have demonstrated strong price appreciation and earnings growth in the last 12 months. You can find some pretty good free and easy to use screening tools on the Internet.  I use Fidelity's screener.    On the day I run my quantitative model, I use the following screening criteria to build my universe of stocks:

Screen #1: Stocks making new highs with IBD EPS rating of 90 or higher

Screen #2: Stocks within 2% of their 52 week high with a 52 week price appreciation > 300%

Screen #3: Stocks within 5% of their 52 week high with a 52 week price appreciation > 150% and EPS growth of 25%

Screen #4: Stocks within 5% of their 52 week high with a 52 week price appreciation > 125% and P/E < 50

Screen #5: Stocks within 5% of their 52 week high with a 52 week price appreciation > 50% and P/E < 15

Screen #6: Stocks highlighted on IBD's "screen of the day".

Screen #7: Stocks with Investors Business Daily Ratings greater than 95 EPS and 95 RS (from the previous Friday publication weekly review).

Screen #8: Stocks with Investors Business Daily Ratings greater than 90 RS and PE less than 20 (from the previous Friday publication weekly review).

 

  1. Each screen will yield about 10 – 50 stocks.   List the tickers of all of the stocks in an Excel database.  Delete duplicates as there will be overlap between the 8 screening criteria.

  2. Copy and paste the ticker symbols into a Yahoo portfolio that you create (maximum 200 symbols).   During bull markets, you'll have more than 200 symbols and you'll have to devise your own method to cull down to 200.  During bear or sideways markets, you'll usually have fewer than 200 symbols.

  3. Print out the charts on all of the stocks using the "Detailed" view on Yahoo.  If you use the "small text" display on Explorer, you should get about 4 charts per page, with a total of about 50 pages.

  4. Pick the 2 stocks (of the 4) on each page which have the highest r-squared correlation coefficient.   In essence, you are taking the 2 best looking charts with the straightest lines and least volatility, with respect to time.  Remember, based on the preliminary screens, all of the stocks should have charts where the stock prices are climbing.  If none of the charts on any one page don't look good to you, don't select any of them.  In the end, you'll end up with a total of about 75 - 100 stocks. 

  5. Re-enter the remaining 100 or so ticker symbols into an Excel spreadsheet.  You can use the "download historical prices" function in Yahoo so you don't have to re-type them all.

  6. Rank these stocks separately on both of the following criteria: Price Appreciation, Price Appreciation divided by trailing 12 month P/E.  Assign a ranking value (i.e. #1 stock gets a 100, #99 stock gets a 1) for each criteria.  Sum the two criteria and re-rank the all of the sums.  If you have 100 stocks in the database, the highest "score" any stock can have is "200".  This process favors stocks with more reasonable valuations and strong price momentum and weeds out those with no earnings.

  7. Print out this list of stocks.

  8. Starting from the #1 ranked stock, check to see if it has 3 years of revenue growth and 3 consecutive years of earnings growth.  Eliminate any stocks that do not pass this final screen.    I need stocks that have earnings power.  If a company is growing its earnings and revenues for 3 straight years,  it is unlikely that its earnings will decline.   If its valuation is still reasonable, its stock price has room to grow as well.  Go down the list until you have 5 stocks.   This is the Top 5 which I publish on my http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/ website.

  9. For each of the Top 5 stocks, go to the http://investing.quicken.com/research/ website and determine its numerical value on the Weiss and Hagstrom scales (assign a value of "1" for a "check" and a "-1" for an "x".  Use a value of zero if the stock is not covered by one of them (it will be covered by at least Weiss or Hagstrom). 

  10. For each of the Top 5 stocks, go to the http://www.investors.com/member/checkup/checkUp.asp?t=&ss=YESwebsite and determine its numerical value on the Stock Checkup scale (value of 0 to 99).

  11.  For each of the Top 5 stocks, go to the http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/srs/srsmain.asp website and determine its numerical value on the Stock Scouter scale (value of 1 to 10).

  12. Add up the values for "Hagstrom", "Weiss", "Stock checkup", Stock Scouter" and rank the Top 5 again.  The maximum value any stock could have would be 7 for Hagstrom, 8 for Weiss, 99 for Stock Checkup and 10 for Stock Scouter (total of 124).  Any stock with a value over 110 is usually very good.

  13. Use your noodle.  You've put all of these great stocks through the ringer to figure out which one is the best.  Look at these Top 5 and decide which one you like the best, having taken all these factors into consideration, plus fundamental analysis associated with any events that may not be baked into these revenue, earnings or valuation numbers.

  14. Buy the stock you like best. In a typical bull market, the stock will, on average, achieve a 15% gain within 4 to 6 weeks. Sell the stock and repeat the process. Why sell so soon? Well there are ever changing phenomena going on in the market that could make your selection criteria quite different a month after the signals told you to buy this stock. The theory here is that you are selling a potentially "tired" stock and trading it for a "fresh" one.

What this process is trying to do is to select a hot growth stock that has a little more juice left in it to get you that last 15% without being so hideously overvalued that it could drop like a rock. I don’t think I need to buy stocks with extended valuations to make a quick profit. There are stocks out there with good momentum that aren’t bad to hold if I make a wrong decision. I think my model finds them. My model has been successful in protecting me from real lemons. Preservation of capital is always important. Buying companies with real earnings protects me in the down markets. We all work hard for our money. It makes no sense to give it away. That’s why I believe it’s important to buy stock in companies with real earnings.

If you really like what you see, you may want to consider joining my free and fun investment discussion group and message board where we talk in detail about all of my hot stock picks.  Here is the link:

My Awesome $$$MR. MARKET$$$ site == Discuss $$$MR. MARKET$$$ hot stock picks!!

Tell me what you think of my model. I’d be happy to answer any questions about this process if you send me an E-mail.

Here is a link to my professional financial advisor…he’s really an awesome guy:

Here's Austin

The internet's all about communication. Now that you've had a chance to see the world's worst webpage, if you are an old friend, fellow alum, want to be a new friend or if you want to hear about my latest HOT HOT HOT stock pick, how about sending me some E-Mail===>> CLICK on my head to talk to Ernie:

 

 

  did you really like my webpage?  Good... now send me money ===>      ain't the internet great???

 

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