Decisions, decisions (SIRI)

[Thomrich]

Greetings again,

LEXR looks to have touched lower channel today,with earnings being released after hours.Sandisk reported upside and was rewarded,will LEXR do the same?Seems to have bounced off 5.15.

Any thoughts ?

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Concerning LEXR,down big after hours,could be a repeat of last earnings,which provided a run from 4.40 to 6.00.

After doing some chart work ,both a P+F and a measured move from the wedge break,target 8.50 on SIRI,sound plausible?

BTW your call on ERF sounds great,and checking on a P+F it targets 57.Unfortunately on ZICA it targets 0,I was stopped out at 2.75,and now feel somewhat lucky,your thoughts on P+F charts,along with ZICA and LEXR?

cordially Tom

[Websman]

I admit that I love SIRI, especially since I doubled my investment from it last year, but I don't have a lot of faith in a big run up this year. I honestly think that most of the big news is already priced in.

Also you have to consider the large number of outstanding shares SIRI has. It'll take a lot of action to make it move big. I can see a move to $8.50, but that's about it.

Just my opinion...

[spikefader]

Greetings again,

LEXR looks to have touched lower channel today,with earnings being released after hours.Sandisk reported upside and was rewarded,will LEXR do the same?Seems to have bounced off 5.15.

Any thoughts ?

cordially Tom

LEXR yep channel long today, perhaps 4.92 double bottom? While 4.73 holds, it's OK. But stop under that since the bigger channel, while bullish is so wide, and the channel from the recent top is downward. Bulls gotta step up now! Good luck.

[spikefader]

Greetings,

Concerning LEXR,down big after hours,could be a repeat of last earnings,which provided a run from 4.40 to 6.00.

After doing some chart work ,both a P+F and a measured move from the wedge break,target 8.50 on SIRI,sound plausible?

BTW your call on ERF sounds great,and checking on a P+F it targets 57.Unfortunately on ZICA it targets 0,I was stopped out at 2.75,and now feel somewhat lucky,your thoughts on P+F charts,along with ZICA and LEXR?

cordially Tom

Yes, today provides a bargain entry on this gap down. It's a valid long here with great R/R!

ZICA is a frustrating stock. I'm still bullish on it, but gee I wish it would hurry up To your stop out, good discipline dude. Go back to your entry and there's your answer as to what went wrong. Once you miss a move, know when you've missed it and be patient for the next. Best to ya.

[spikefader]

..your thoughts on P+F charts,along with ZICA and LEXR?
cordially Tom

oh, and P&F, I don't trade off them, but occasionally look at them as a piece in the larger puzzle.

[Peter Hansen]

IBD Comments on SIRI!

SIRI scheduled to release results Tuesday......Analysts expect revenue to rise 278% to $50.1 million while its pro forma loss rises to 15 cents per share from 11 cents. Hopefully Siri wii beat Analyst's figures, or we could be in for a drop .......set your stops!

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Stop set for 6.73,it bounced off of 6.81 all day,with next week being the start of a new month,I look for a rally on monday.

Does anyone know when Howard Stern is moving to SIRI?


cordially Tom

[skiracer]

Here's what B.J refers to (good spotting ))



Ya know folks, if ever there was a chart screaming long, and screaming long-term long, it's SIRI right now. This is the type of setup I encourage looking for; multiple time frames pointing north. It's so ripe it's about to fall off the tree. You just have to reach out and catch it as it falls. Oh, and by the way, it's poking its head up through the weekly 200 EMA with rising green money flow

As with all things, plan for failure and keep any downside within sensible r/r limits and all is well. There are never 100% guarantees, but SIRI looks about as good as it's going to for a long term entry.

Regarding the ascending triangle definition according to Bulkowski's book there are a few things in the chart of SIRI that I overlooked and probably do alot because when I'm looking at a chart and see a pattern it's a toss up whether or not I go to the book and read up on exactly what constitutes a true chart pattern. In this case SIRI. When I first looked at the chart an saw the ascending triangle all that I saw was the horizontal top line and the up-sloping bottom line. I never paid any attention in this case to the definition of what it should contain and by doing that missed a couple of points that could make a difference. Here are a few observations after the fact which I've noted on the chart.



I'm still holding the position with a stop at 6.75. I'm going to be watching this one very closely Monday AM to see which way the wind will be blowing.
Thomrich made an interesting statement about Monday being the beginning of a new month and the hedgies an institutional guys like to put their money into play in the beginning of the month so there might be a bounce just on that.
The fact that it has gone lower from last weeks entry, for me 6.98, on lower volume as it moves closer to it's apex, where the converging top and bottom lines intersect, on lower volume is normal and should not be misconstrued as a failure yet but what stocks do when in this type of chart pattern. So still holding and watching. Except for the price crossings between the top and bottom lines at least twice the pattern looks to be real good. Only time will tell. Honor your stops. You can always re-enter later. Just like MM stated in an earlier post today or yesterday, the gain is the main thing regardless whether it is from 10 to 15 or 20 to 25 etc.... Just as long as you realize the gain.

[Runner]

The way I see SIRI is 6.77 offered a buy signal with stop just below 6.50.

If you bot at 7.00 you bot right into resistance. But heck who on earth knows this stocks fate is? The more I try to figure this out the more this market proves how foolish I am.

As for SIRI my view is still bullish down to 6.50, if the market structure low is violated then I would not wish to hold these shares...

[skiracer]

The way I see SIRI is 6.77 offered a buy signal with stop just below 6.50.

If you bot at 7.00 you bot right into resistance. But heck who on earth knows this stocks fate is? The more I try to figure this out the more this market proves how foolish I am.

As for SIRI my view is still bullish down to 6.50, if the market structure low is violated then I would not wish to hold these shares...

Runner,
Check your mail please.

[Runner]

Runner,
Check your mail please.

Ski, I got your e-mail last night. Did you send another one?

[spikefader]

Yes Ski, some interesting stuff there. That chart (and the ascending triangle) has obviously failed with Friday’s price action. I intended to chase the channel turn up early but thankfully got called elsewhere so I didn’t take it until 6.84 after I reassessed the chart and posted here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...&postcount=470

At that time it was clearly bullish, and the intraday pattern that developed later was bullish too: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...&postcount=480

I'm still bullish while that neckline holds. Price is at the neckline, so it's do or die. Who knows; the market might gap up, SIRI takes off gaps up and we're all happy. I know one thing is certain. I'll be watching SIRI as soon as premarket trade opens in the event it sells under the neckline.

On your thoughts on the ascending triangle, here’s what I think:
You're trying to nail down exactly what makes for a pure ascending triangle. That's OK. Go for it. Make it as complicated or as simply as you want. Making reference to books and other chartist's opinion is cool.....never too old to learn a new good rule, ya know?! I'm certainly not 'the authority' on ascending triangles. My views might be childishly simplistic and laughable to Mr. Bulkowski and others. I'm sure my counts give purist EWers quite the chuckle

But bottom line is that I prefer to keep things simple; very simple. Obviously, there are many times that my simple interpretations are proven incorrect. Some may even suggest it's because I'm too childish in my charting; I'm not studying all 'the rules'. But on the other hand, many times I correctly interpret and anticipate a move and I make some nice money. Whether it's luck or good charting God knows. I like to think that I have some interpretive charting talent, but it's actually not that important in the grand scheme of things I think. I think the edge is having the discipline to manage risk and reward really well, and to use sensible money management.

That is what will help more than any study of someone else's interpretation of ascending triangles and what makes them really perfectly 'valid'. Frankly, their opinion isn't going to make the trade successful. Your own discipline will do that; and nothing else. And that is whether it's a winning trade or a stop out loss. It's what I'm always harping on about, and I'll do it until I keel over and die. If a stop out was part of the plan, and you stopped out, then you’re a legend and you’re on your way to success. In hindsight, I would much rather have really appreciated that point FIRST, then learnt about profit generating setups. It took me a long time to learn that discipline is the most important thing in trading; not finding a good system. For without great discipline, there will be no long-term victory. Look at Mr. Market. If he wasn’t so wonderfully disciplined with his model and his trades, he’d be an utter failure. He certainly wouldn’t have 71 consecutive winners. Whether you’ve got a model like MM and you’re a long-term trader who uses no stops, or you’re a short-term trader who uses stops every day, DISCIPLINE is the key to victory and glory.

The fact is that surprises happen every day. We must plan for it, and have no regrets when we are surprised. Even the perfect pattern or perfect chart can fail; it happens all too often. The market CANNOT be perfectly predicted. There are forces going on in every single issue that is traded that we don't see, hear about, and certainly don't understand. Whether it's a basic fundamental change in an issue, or some unexpected piece of news, there is danger of sudden price movement against any one of our trades. I've had sudden movement against enough of mine; and I don't like it by the way! And as a short-term trader it's those moves that have made me really appreciate the concept of discipline. It is through pain that we grow in this business.

Seriously dude, the nature of the market is such that the unexpected will always happen; a perfect chart setup will fail, an imperfect chart setup will succeed. Knowing this, I don't need to search for perfection, but just a better than average setup and great risk reward. Then I can smile in the knowledge that one HAS to lose some battles in order to win the war. Limit the casualties, pick the battles well, manage emotions like a Samurai, and be honest with myself about the risk I took, and whether it was a statistically worthy thing to do.

If I stop out of SIRI on Monday I'm not going to beat myself up over it, and nor should anyone else who traded it. It was a speculative trade, just like all of them, it was planned out, it was a valid long setup (on multiple time frames mind you), it was executed, it was watched, and it came to conclusion. The risk will be within limits, and I know that by making sure that IS within limits, I will live to fight another battle, perhaps even the war If I stop out, I deserve a pat on the back, and not a reference to an author I've not heard of who says my trade was never going to win! haha ~BG~

Best to ya Ski!

[skiracer]

Spike,
It took you a long time to get to that last sentence when you could have said that right from the beginning. The point is that you missed entirely the idea of what I was trying to convey. The farthest thought from my mind was correcting your analysis or knocking it in any way. I had bought the stock before I read your post an after seeing that you liked the stock and trade also made me feel better about the trade.
There was so much talk about ascending triangles afterwards that I went back to Bulkowski's book to read up on them because at the time I didn't know the true definition of their chart pattern. I was only trying to pass on some info for everyone, nothing negative towards you or anyone else.
One thing I'm sure of is that the closer you get to the true definition and meaning of a chart pattern the better chances the result will come out the way you're hoping an expecting them to.
I'm sorry you missed the point and never once said or implied anything negative about your analysis before or after the fact or whether or not the trade was going to be a winner or not.
But I have to thank you for that last statement because it certainly has provided me with the answer to something that has been floating around inside my head for awhile now. BTW Bulkowski is a pretty well known and respected authority on chart interpretation an percentages of how specific chart patterns will turn out so it not like he has no credentials. Best to ya Spike and good trading.

[spikefader]

Gee Ski, I put a big grin and a smiley, and a haha in there....it was a joke!! I was attempting to be light-hearted. I blame that second glass of red wine for its failed delivery. haha

I know you weren't knocking - but rather contributing info. Forgive the failed joke attempt and what surely you perceive as misguided 'ranting' in the face of your helpful supply of tech info on that pattern. I went off on the discipline tangent for whatever reason, and I obviously came off as defensive and self-righteous. Like I said, I'm no expert on ascending triangles. I've always said I can't recommend 'texts' to people. All I have learnt is from experience and net research. Bulkowski may be a respected authority, but I've not read him. There are many patterns I like and use (bullflags, head and shoulders, EW) and every one of them have 'rules' defined by so-called experts who have written a book about it. If I choose to integrate part of their theory into my trading without applying all the rules, and if I can do it effectively, then I'm happy. Say I take a SHS pattern, but it doesn't have what experts like to see in it, such as volume decline in the shoulders and head, if I happen to trade it well, despite the missing ingredient then that's OK. I guess my point in the rant was it doesn't matter what others are doing successfully that is the trick, but it's doing what YOU do successful that is important, whether that is bastardizing someone elses rules or not. I bastardize them and make it work. And the reason is the great R/R and the fact that I don't let the bad ones get away from me.

I really hope I don't come off as sounding like an arrogant defensive ass, because I don't think I am. That last cryptic thing about your floating question leaves me at a loss, but anyway it doesn't matter dude. It's all good, and I just wanted to say that. Thanks for all you add to the boards Ski, and just tell me to shut up with a grin when I'm a raving lunatic. Sometimes I go off on a tangent about stuff that I really believe with all my heart will help people trying to learn trading.