MYGN, the Next AMGN

[New-born baby]

Gaps Down

Hi, Ski! Glad to see you back in town!

Now about your comments, here is my view:

Those gaps down to $21/22 range haven't been anywhere near filled.

That's exactly right. I am thinking that they are runaway gaps. I could be wrong. :d

Todays volume of 2,812,874 wasn't exactly amateurs bailing out.

I am not sure if they were amateurs or not. I do know that 1.4 million shares were sold, and 1.4 million shares were bought, but I don't know any of the buyers or sellers. But my point is that MYGN bounced off of support and that kept the cup and small handle on the weekly intact, and the chart formation is still valid. Support is a great place to buy, but we don't know if it will hold in the future or not. The old rule that 'support is support until it isn't' still applies. If this support breaks, we had to re-evaluate the chart and the proper course of action.

The issue of gaps is a difficult one. If the stock has sufficient momo, the gap down is a buying opportunity. MFLX is a great example; damaging article/news, a strong pullback, and an even stronger bounce. Those people that sold turned out to be wrong; those that bought were correct. Last fall ACI was a momo stock that ran to $70. Damaging downgrade resulted in a one day drop to $65. Turned out to be a great buying opportunity as the stock ran to $88. BBD: you are buying on a recent plunge down. The news that is punishing that stock is inflation. But you are buying because it is a momo stock that you think has sufficient power to overcome the news. I think you are correct.

SO the question: does MYGN have enough momo to overcome? The chart says so, and this is what I am attempting to read. The uptrend is still officially in tact because: 1. didn't bust the 50 day; 2. cup still intact; 3. known support held. But of course, nobody knows. And we just have to buy the stock and have an exit plan in case we are wrong.

[New-born baby]

MoMo

Ski:
I think if you look at these three charts you'll see why I think MYGN still has the momo.

Here's a look at MoMo for comparison:

[NY4Ever]

Myriad flays media claims
Reports that breast cancer test is flawed are false, company says
By Bob Mims and Carey Hamilton
The Salt Lake Tribune



Myriad Genetics Inc., backed by market researchers, fired back Wednesday at published claims the biopharmaceutical company's test for breast cancer genes is flawed.
It was initial news reports about a University of Washington study that were misleading, Salt Lake City-based Myriad said. Analysts from Merrill Lynch and JMP Securities agreed, noting that coverage underplayed the fact that the UW research was done on a rare group of women at a particularly high risk for breast cancer.
How rare? The UW study group - 300 existing cancer patients, all of whom also had at least four or more close relatives with breast or ovarian cancers - would comprise just three-quarters of 1 percent of the tens of thousands of women who take Myriad's BRCAnalysis test annually, the company said.
"This happened in a fraction of those individuals . . . who had extremely high burdens of cancers in their families," said Gregory C. Critchfield, president of Myriad Genetics Laboratories.
The UW study, published Tuesday in The Journal of the American Medical Association, found that Myriad's test for predisposition for breast cancer missed genetic mutations linked to the disease in 10 percent to 12 percent of the study group. Women with those seldom-occurring mutations have an 80 percent chance of developing breast cancer in their lifetimes - eight times the rate for women in general.
The study was seen in some circles as increasing the pressure on Myriad Genetics, which has been the focus of critics who say its patents give it a monopoly on the test, for which it charges as much as $3,000. They argue that more thorough testing methods should be developed.
Director Saundra Buys says her High-Risk Breast Cancer Clinic at the Huntsman Cancer Institute in Salt Lake City has offered the BRCAnalysis test since its beginnings in 1996. The clinic also has provided it to many of the 1,200 people enrolled in its Breast Cancer Family Registry, 31 percent of whom were found with breast cancer mutations.
"You might feel betrayed if all you did was put out your arm and have a genetic test done for $3,000," Buys said in reference to the UW study. "But people need to have this testing done in the context of counseling and education and not in a vacuum. They should walk out of counseling and know that if the test is negative that doesn't mean they're not at high risk."
Vickie Venne, a genetic counselor at the institute, said she talked on Wednesday to four women concerned about the test. Two of them participated in the study and hadn't yet learned their results.
"We don't know everything yet. That's why we're still doing research," Venne said. "For all intents and purposes, it's still the best we have."
Analysts from both Merrill Lynch and JMP Securities echoed Myriad's concerns Wednesday as the company's stock closed


at $25.69, down 6 percent.
"Contrary to a New York Times article . . . that claimed Myriad's test for breast cancer genes is flawed, Myriad's screen is accurate and detects genetic mutations that lead to a higher risk for breast cancer in greater than 99 percent of patients tested," a trio of Merrill Lynch analysts concurred.
Charles Duncan of JMP took a similar article in The Wall Street Journal to task. "We view the data as applicable to a much smaller population than the article leads on," he wrote, adding that Myriad always has suggested additional testing for high-risk patients who get negative BRCAnalysis results.
BRCAnalysis has been done on more than 100,000 women to date, the company confirms. Using blood samples, the patented test focuses on the BRCA1 and BRAC2 genes, seeking evidence of the most commonly occurring five breast cancer-related mutations.
"We have been looking for some way to test for all [breast cancer mutations], and we're getting close to having that technology available," Critchfield said, noting available scans for remaining, rarer mutations are available for clinical researchers but so far do not meet standards for general medical marketing.
BRCAnalysis tests and other predictive medical products accounted for $23.4 million of Myriad's $27.3 million in revenue for its most recent quarter.
In a New York news conference Tuesday on the UW study, Mary-Claire King, co-author and a geneticist at the Seattle school, underscored the need to develop additional testing methods beyond Myriad's near-monopoly in the United States.
Myriad spokesman Bill Hockett countered that his company's control of the BRCAnalysis test - based on genes Myriad researchers discovered - has guaranteed a decade of quality control.
"There is no better test available today, and open competition would not provide a better test. In fact just the opposite is far more likely," he said.

[b_cadvantag]

What pot shots? I was referring to the gap open lower - that's gotta hurt the longs. Now, care to add anything substantial to the discussion?

I dont think it hurts the longs- support held. good time to buy on add to a position.

But what do I know...At least I dont jump someone's thread and hack on them.

[NY4Ever]

Interesting Reading From Another Board


Old Rivalries

Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 03/23/06 11:08 am

When I read the article yesterday outlining the study conducted by Mary Claire King of the University of Washington I was reminded of the fierce rivalry that has always existed between Ms King and Mark Skolnick of Myriad Genetics. Myriad was created to attempt to isolate the gene causing inherited breast cancer and was in a competition with a group headed by Ms. King to find the gene. As we know Myriad won the race, patented the gene, and created the test for BRCA 1. For a brief period Skolnick and King worked together but the natural competition among rivals made that collaboration impossible.

My point is simply that the study as designed by Mary Claire King was created to show the flaws in the Myriad test. There was an outstanding television show on PBS a couple of years ago called DNA with an episode called "Curing Cancer", which chronicles the race for the gene and the competition between several groups including Myriad and King (while she was at UC Berkely) to locate and clone the gene. Both King and Skolnick were interviwed on the program and there is no love lost between the two of them. The obvious issue presented is the role of corporations and the stock market in the field of medical research for personal gain. An interesting comment was made by James Watson, one of the true pioneers of genetic research, who welcomes the pharmaceutical companies to the field. I think it is obvious that academic insitutions alone will not have the resources to accomplish the necessary research and it is only by creating an appropriate "Risk-Reward" balance will the public interest be served.

Clearly the debate regarding the patenting of genes will rage on with merit on both sides of the argument. I will not hazard a guess as to the eventual outcome but to me it is interesting to see how old rivalries and competitive spirit like that between King and Skolnick impact scientific discovery.

[NY4Ever]

"Panics,in some cases, have their uses; they produce as much good as hurt.
Their duration is always short; the mind soon grows through them and acquires a fIrmer habit than before." Thomas Paine

LOAD UP THE WAGON !

[NY4Ever]

The stock decline is "a buying opportunity," said Annabel Samimy, an analyst at UBS Securities LLC in New York, in a note to clients Wednesday. "We do not believe this puts Myriad's revenue growth at risk, as the tests remain an important and valid predictive tool."

[skiracer]

I dont think it hurts the longs- support held. good time to buy on add to a position.

But what do I know...At least I dont jump someone's thread and hack on them.

I think it is important to supply some technical or fundamental basis to substantiate your feelings anytime you tout a stock. Most people here usually do provide some solid argument to support their positions. Anyone can make any claim they want but if someone else takes issue with that claim and can back it up with something better than "back up the wagon" after a distribution day of nearly 3 million shares then you can't call that anything except good solid reasoning. Of course it's your money and you can do what you want with it but if you're stuck in a position with no plan or escape route it's easier to rationalize why it's still a great position and to stay in it.
None of us know what MYGN is going to do short or long term but making an educated assumption based on some solid analysis it better than empty words with no sound basis for them.

[Lyehopper]

I think it is important to supply some technical or fundamental basis to substantiate your feelings anytime you tout a stock. Most people here usually do provide some solid argument to support their positions. Anyone can make any claim they want but if someone else takes issue with that claim and can back it up with something better than "back up the wagon" after a distribution day of nearly 3 million shares then you can't call that anything except good solid reasoning. Of course it's your money and you can do what you want with it but if you're stuck in a position with no plan or escape route it's easier to rationalize why it's still a great position and to stay in it.
None of us know what MYGN is going to do short or long term but making an educated assumption based on some solid analysis it better than empty words with no sound basis for them.

He quoted "Thomas Paine" AND "Annibel Samimey" Skiracer! what else do ya need? Load up the freakin wagon dude! jejeje

[New-born baby]

Options

He quoted "Thomas Paine" AND "Annibel Samimey" Skiracer! what else do ya need? Load up the freakin wagon dude! jejeje

Forget the stock; load up on options. JAN 07 calls. BUY the $25 strike for $4.20 and sell the $30 strike for $3.20. So for $1 you stand to gain $5 IF Thomas Paine is right. My only problem: Thomas Paine was a great infidel.

Pictured below is Lyehopper's Relatives with loaded wagon of MYGN shares
I don't know who loaded the wagon--he wasn't very good at it, that's for sure. Perhaps Annibel Samimey

[skiracer]

Forget the stock; load up on options. JAN 07 calls. BUY the $25 strike for $4.20 and sell the $30 strike for $3.20. So for $1 you stand to gain $5 IF Thomas Paine is right. My only problem: Thomas Paine was a great infidel.

Pictured below is Lyehopper's Relatives with loaded wagon of MYGN shares
I don't know who loaded the wagon--he wasn't very good at it, that's for sure. Perhaps Annibel Samimey

I sure there is "goji juice" packed away inside those bundles of straw

[Tatnic]

if your prices are correct, you're conclusion is not. IF the stock closes at $30 or higher on exp, your max gain is $4, not $5. Its impossible to have a gain of $5 on a $5 spread.....if it closes at $25 or lower, your max. loss is $1 (lose the entire $4.2 for the long call but keep the $3.2 for the short). Still a very good risk/reward ratio of 4:1. But, in my experience I've found that very often when such a high risk reward pops up, it never works out...not sure why. The options Gods know more than we do? Good luck, you'll need it with this stock IMO.

[NY4Ever]

Current analyst ratings: 4 strong buy 4 buy 1 hold

Stock is a bargain at current levels. A splendid buying opportunity now that we have shaken out the weak holders.

"Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win by fearing to attempt." William Shakespeare

[NY4Ever]

Just for the record you won't get a lot of stock ideas from me. I only post potential homerun stocks -- not those for a quick in and out trade. In all my years on Wall Street I never knew a technician who made any real money.
The smart money on Wall Street buy stocks in their embryo stage and holds on for the big score such as was achieved by those who bought AMGN in 1988.

[NY4Ever]

Continue to accumulate. Stock is now at 25.59 unchanged on the day after reaching 26. Volume drying up which means selling has dried up. Good week next week for this stock.