Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Greetings,
Spike this may sound like a weird question,but it go's like this.
Im in the automotive repair field,and when monitoring fuel economy we use a term" fuel trim".Its given a positive or negative value,and the first thing you look at to determine if youve fixed a problem is short term fuel bias.It immediately tells you which direction fuel enrichment is headed,and is absolute.
Could you give an indicator which best points to something similar when judging the direction of a stock?
When Fuel trims switch from negative to positive,fuel usage must correspond,and it can be seen empirically on an automotive scanner.
Can you give an indicator that you value the most?
cordially Tom

Interesting question. I'll have to ponder that one some more, but my first thoughts would be any of the momentum Oscillators, CCI, Momentum, RSI, Stochastics or Williams %R. These indicators are known as leading indicators and use various formulas to measure price changes. Generally speaking, the faster the price movement/change, the larger the increase in momentum. These indicators will predict/forewarn of a movement early, but they generate a lot of signals, so one must be careful. They work best in rangebound markets, but will work well in a trending market as long as you trade in the direction of the bigger trend. The tricky part is knowing which market you're in. And as with every indicator out there, there is a trade-off between the sensitivity of the signals and the resulting consistency. Finding the right time frame for your indicator and your style of trading is something that will only come from a lot of live testing and research.

My favorite momo indicators are stochastics and CCI. I really like divergences (regular and hidden), and zero line crosses and rejects.

But having said all that, in my opinion there is no single indicator that performs so well that it makes trading easy and profitable. And a search to find one is generally met with disappointment and frustration. There are times when they work great....and others when they chop you to pieces. I think they can be very useful when considered with other things, such as channels, support resistence and volume, and waves. Bottom line is consistency over the long haul, in every type of market. This is where risk management becomes so important, and working out whether the risk you're going to have to take is worth it compared to where your target is.

[Thomrich]

Thomrich,

If I were you, I would not sell PWI. Let me give you several reasons:

1. The price of oil continues to increase and most likely will not drop back to $30 anytime soon. The Cans will continue to profit and with unhedged oil will likely increase dividends soon. That means the share price is going to continue to increase. If you sell, you'll have to buy back in at a higher price.

2. That .30 dividend is going to pay for any drop is share price. Think of it: .30 per month! Talk about safety!

3. With the crummy market we currently have, savy investors are leaving the non-dividend paying stocks to safer havens so that they can garner some profit: PWI is giving a 16% dividend AND an increase in share price. Double gravy!

4. You may not be aware of it, but you own a piece of paradise. Don't sell it!
Take a look at BEL and compare how blessed you are to own PWI.

5. Remember, the stock market has averaged a 10% gain per year for fifty years, but 6% of that gain has been dividends. In bear markets, dividends are what you should be seeking.

6. I would guess that no one's portfolio on this forum ("Mr. Market is Huge") is up more than 16% this year (2004) who is not a dividend hunter. Sure, some have made some very nice trades this year; but I would think portfolio wide 16% has not been realized by even the exceptional traders on this forum. The market is that bad. You are experiencing a vicious bear market.

In conclusion, you've found the gold mine; don't sell it. Make it pay you.

"Only the best investing to you always!"

I have to agree,while it was pretty consistent swings a few months ago,its buying back higher now.

After seeing T Boone Pickens on Bloomberg this weekend,I cant see selling till 25ish.He knows the oil biz better than anyone,and doesnt think 35 is ever coming back,and likely to see 60 before 40.

Only problem with PWI is its weighted mostly in NG,about 67%.I think NG should go with oil,especially if we have a cold season.

Do you have any that are more light sweet crude pumpers?

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

Light Sweet Crude

Thomrich,

I really like the natural gas plays better than the Light Sweet Crude. The reason is that NG demand is increasing, and while we currently produce 99% of USA consumption right here, that cannot last much longer. NG futures are already over $9, compared to $2-3 just 4 years ago. Furthermore, with NG you have a winter income; with oil, it is more of a summer income. If a Can is 50% oil, 50% gas, you're sitting in the best spot.

With PWI, you're sitting on a gold mine: enjoy. Why sell at $25 if the oil price doesn't drop? Why not hold till the oil market has most definitely peaked? With PWI, you've got your cake and can eat it too. I would advise you to hold that thing and embrace those .30 dividends every month until the oil comes down again. It is possible that oil may remain high for one, two, three, four years or more. Better to own at a lower cost than jump around and have to buy back in at a higher cost. You would lose commisions and in purchase price, too.

I cannot give you much advice about a Can with more of a bent towards crude. I buy my shares on the Canadian side, and Cans like AY.UN, paying %15.6%, and NVG.UN, paying 15%, are more heavily weighted towards oil. BTE pays "only" 13.6% but is an excellent company.

[spikefader]

Goog short with Dec 120 puts @ $0.95

[spikefader]

QQQ short now 35.78.

[spikefader]

Re goog short:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8368&postcount=1234

added more puts at $0.70.

[Thomrich]

tmwd going again,bought back higher,hows it look Spike?

cordially Tom

[Websman]

SIRI closed at $4.01...

I believe people are starting to realize the potential of Satellite radio. I'll continue holding...

[spikefader]

tmwd going again,bought back higher,hows it look Spike?

cordially Tom

Lookin bullish to me. I'm looking for an entry at S1 or S2 intraday on a decent pullback.

[kingofthehill]

Spike great call (ELN) on the pivot being $23.90 ... what are we looking for today ?

[spikefader]

Thnx but can't take credit for pivot prices. They're generated automatically with QT!

Congrats on ELN's performance King....now 26 is the hump it faces. Remember BASSAR!

[tokyojoeskid]

lci

Spike whats your take on LCI I think if it breaks below 10.8 its in trouble
thanks
tjk


Did you ever buy Eln or you still waiting?

[spikefader]

I'm still waiting for ELN. It was too technically iffy for me, what with that wide upchannel, and pushing against the downchannel like it was. But that's OK....I miss many runs by all the haggling I do over price but I'd rather lose opportunity than cash any day. Patience and discipline wins in the end. I'll take another position in ELN again soon enough. Right now, I'm gonna wait and see how much profit taking there is from the 26.00 hump, and whether there's a channel turn up from the recent high. If it turns up and closes there, I'll buy it in anticipation of a breakout and assume that gap is a runaway.

LCI channel long today, and bounce near the gap support zone. There's a double bottom on intraday 5 min chart, so long anywhere here at 10.98 or under with a stop loss at 10.64 is the smart bullish play. If you like more wiggle room, stop under 9.50 is the way to go. If it fails there, look out below!

[spikefader]

QQQ update:
Vector firmly bearish, and I'm holding short.

[stocks54]

Comments on AUO

Mr. Spike,

Any comments on AUO? I wish (well) I should have bought WITS instead of AUO...

Regards,