The Columbus Day Top 5

[spikefader]

Spike, those are really pretty charts. Which Web site or software produces them? I assume they have a volume option, though it appears you may have recently attended the Runner School of We-Don't-Need-No-Steenking-Volume.

LOL yup, it does look like I have attended that School! heh. In reality I still think volume is key; I just haven't figured out the volume thing.

But anyway, glad you like 'em. They're from http://www.voodootrader. To get the size I wanted I right-clicked the tiny chart that appears on that page, get the image location, then put that in my address bar and change the size and filter settings. I have set up a 28 different chart/filter settings on an EditPad Pro html unpublished page, and for each new ticker I want to look at I do search and replace. After all the new tickers are in place I then open the html page to view it in Firefox to look at the results. All 28 charts open and load and I right click any chart I happen to like, and click "upload to imageshack" (see imageshack's tools for that thing, which you install on your PC). Then I put the imageshack links in the MM posts (or my site) to show them. One can hotlink to the voodoocharts image location, but that's rather rude, since you're stealing bandwidth. But the way I do it is a real quick way to get a fast overall picture of daily/weekly/monthly charts with various settings, and that voodootrader.com page actually automatically inserts those trendlines/channels/triangles, which is brilliant. And it only takes me a couple of seconds to do the find and replace thing for the 28 different charts with different filter settings, another second or two for the page to load and then it's just a quick glance to get the 'big TA picture' for that issue. Took a bit of fiddling to get it set up, but once I did it I was glad.

[Gatorman]

What in the world happened to ZONS today. I don't see any news that would prompt such a selloff.

[Runner]

Spike, those are really pretty charts. Which Web site or software produces them? I assume they have a volume option, though it appears you may have recently attended the Runner School of We-Don't-Need-No-Steenking-Volume.

THIS CHART IS FOR ROB...hehe


NOW PLEASE EXPLAIN WHAT THE VOLUME TELLS YOU....

[studentofthemarket]

volume volume who has some volume.

THIS CHART IS FOR ROB...hehe

chart snippage.

NOW PLEASE EXPLAIN WHAT THE VOLUME TELLS YOU....

Well, volume can tell you a lot. Like how many shares are trading each day.

LOL ok. I'll be serious.

the main thing I look for is the proportion of price moves to volume changes. The bigger the volume spike, and the smaller the move the more likely the stock will then move higher. Typically because the price point hit a sell price for the people that had bought at a higher price. The larger volume spike means that more of the peeps bailed out. Some stock that just showed up on a screen of mine showed 3 separate places where it rose too and then sold off. the volume spike wasn't very big. and it fell down hard as people apparently chased the recent high price down.

I will have to check on which chart that was and let you know, so you can see what I mean.

student.
I have less volume, I've lost 28 pounds in teh last 8 weeks

[skiracer]

LOL yup, it does look like I have attended that School! heh. In reality I still think volume is key; I just haven't figured out the volume thing.

But anyway, glad you like 'em. They're from http://www.voodootrader. To get the size I wanted I right-clicked the tiny chart that appears on that page, get the image location, then put that in my address bar and change the size and filter settings. I have set up a 28 different chart/filter settings on an EditPad Pro html unpublished page, and for each new ticker I want to look at I do search and replace. After all the new tickers are in place I then open the html page to view it in Firefox to look at the results. All 28 charts open and load and I right click any chart I happen to like, and click "upload to imageshack" (see imageshack's tools for that thing, which you install on your PC). Then I put the imageshack links in the MM posts (or my site) to show them. One can hotlink to the voodoocharts image location, but that's rather rude, since you're stealing bandwidth. But the way I do it is a real quick way to get a fast overall picture of daily/weekly/monthly charts with various settings, and that voodootrader.com page actually automatically inserts those trendlines/channels/triangles, which is brilliant. And it only takes me a couple of seconds to do the find and replace thing for the 28 different charts with different filter settings, another second or two for the page to load and then it's just a quick glance to get the 'big TA picture' for that issue. Took a bit of fiddling to get it set up, but once I did it I was glad.

Spike,
I've been trying to go to those last two links about the CREME and the Voodoo Trader site and everytime I get "cannot find server etc.. I don't know if it's my end or yours. Anyone else having trouble getting to those links?
Nice charts and the explanation of the other application for the charts is great and time saving for anyone who does a few charts. I particularly like the time saving aspect of one click and it installs all of the signal lines you preset and to be able to interchange them is another good one. Would it work with Internet Explorer?

I took a look at one of the stocks in MM's top 5 and I really don't know anything about them and what they even do or look like fundamentally but the daily chart is suggesting to me that over the very near short term it is going to drop dramatically. This is how I see it and what has and is developing with it.

On the daily it is sitting just above it's 20 ma at 67.33. FMD closed at 67.70 yesterday down .16. Right below the 20 ma is the 20 ema. at 66.06. These are two important support lines that if broken leaves the stock open to 57 level at the 50 ma. From Sept. 18, the day it spiked and gapped up, this stock has been in a steep uptrend. These steep spikes up always suggest that there are alot of people in at specific levels. Alot of those levels are way below the close yesterday at 67.70.

This is only my own observation and is meant only for the immediate short term. If you look at the daily the uptrend is definitely flattening out and starting to roll over. This is where I see the large amount of traders holding stock at much lower levels starting to sell as they see in advance that this could definitely go lower. The exiting/sell-off begins and the domino effect begins and the stock falls to another lower support level. This time at perhaps the 20 ema at 66.06. Once it breaks through it's 20 ma at 67.33 which is only .37 below it's close yesterday it can easily find it's way down to the 20 ema and somewhere lower between the 20 ema and the 50 ma at 57.32.

Just my observation of the chart and the way I think I see it developing over the next few days or so. This stock is very close to that domino effect starting because of the large and concentrated amount of stock sitting right below this level of support. Which once broken now becomes resistance. On top of all that it has been clearly heavily overbought and shows that in by the long period of time it has spent above the 70 line (overbought) on it's RSI on the daily.

If you have the time to take a look at the weekly chart you will see that since last March there have been 2 other run-ups that experienced the exact same consolidation and pullback after each run-up. The stock is showing the same exact pattern that it experienced at each of the other reversals. It looks very much like it is getting ready to go off to the short side.

I only happened to come upon this stock because it came up in this Ernie's top 5 but right now I'm looking at it as a great short prospect over the immediate short term. This is not to say that it will not go on to accompolish Ernie's target.

[Rob]

Ski, on the voodoocharts link, just add the .com to the end.

[skiracer]

Ski, on the voodoocharts link, just add the .com to the end.

Very clever Rob. Now why didn't I think of that.

[Rob]

NOW PLEASE EXPLAIN WHAT THE VOLUME TELLS YOU....

Runner, as studentofthemarket already pointed out, the volume tells you a lot about how seriously convicted the latest price movements are. If you see a stock run up fast on fairly light volume, that's usually a good sign it's about to fall right back down. When a stock that normally shows volume of, say, about a million shares a day suddenly shows 10 or 12 million, that typically signals that institutions are getting active in that issue. How can you possibly gauge the genuineness of price movement on a chart without looking at the volume? Obviously there are some charts where the volume is not going to tell you as much as it will on others, but even then it does tell you something, e.g. whether the volume is increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same.

[Tatnic]

What in the world happened to ZONS today. I don't see any news that would prompt such a selloff.

that's just what I'm talking about. This stock was way over-extended, and based on what exactly? Certainly the fundies don't support such a parabolic chart IMO.

[Tatnic]

I'm only looking for a 15% gain..therefore the rate price appreciation, along with the consistency of this appreciation is what is important. If I bought any of these companies 6 months ago, I still would only take a 15% gain. So it really doesn't matter when I buy it, as long as it has another 15% left...comprende?

If you are still confused, go back and read about how my algorithm works, which is well defined on my homepage.

I haven't looked recently at your algorithm but I have before and if I recall its a momentum screen along the lines of Navellier. One thing I've noticed about these types of screens is that the majority of stocks they spit out are up considerably over the past year or so. In that large batch that you found there were only a handful trading near their 40 week moving average, most were up over 20%~30% above their 40 week and most of the charts were very strong. Nothing wrong with that if you're only looking for a 15% move and the market is at your back...which it is currently. As a side note, I ran the 5 choices thru navelliers stock grader and fmd got the highest rating(AAA), pspt and zons were the next highest rated (AAB), pcln (AAC) and lastly, mtex was BBC. So there's some reinforcment of your top 5 picks.

[Rob]

FMD MTEX PCLN PSPT ZONS

Which one do you like the best..and why?

Out of those I would have to go with FMD. Students need to borrow money. The price of higher education is outpacing the cost of living by an astounding rate. First Marblehead's revenue and earnings growth, while slowing a little, is still pretty impressive. The P/E of 18 is neither low nor high, but at 67.70, FMD only needs to hit 77.86 for a 15% gain, which looks like a reasonably good probability at this point.

[skiracer]

I don't know or care so much about what it does over the next 6 wks. or longer but it don't look good to me right now or over the immediate short term. I posted this earlier this morning.

I took a look at one of the stocks in MM's top 5 and I really don't know anything about them and what they even do or look like fundamentally but the daily chart is suggesting to me that over the very near short term it is going to drop dramatically. This is how I see it and what has and is developing with it.

On the daily it is sitting just above it's 20 ma at 67.33. FMD closed at 67.70 yesterday down .16. Right below the 20 ma is the 20 ema. at 66.06. These are two important support lines that if broken leaves the stock open to 57 level at the 50 ma. From Sept. 18, the day it spiked and gapped up, this stock has been in a steep uptrend. These steep spikes up always suggest that there are alot of people in at specific levels. Alot of those levels are way below the close yesterday at 67.70.

This is only my own observation and is meant only for the immediate short term. If you look at the daily the uptrend is definitely flattening out and starting to roll over. This is where I see the large amount of traders holding stock at much lower levels starting to sell as they see in advance that this could definitely go lower. The exiting/sell-off begins and the domino effect begins and the stock falls to another lower support level. This time at perhaps the 20 ema at 66.06. Once it breaks through it's 20 ma at 67.33 which is only .37 below it's close yesterday it can easily find it's way down to the 20 ema and somewhere lower between the 20 ema and the 50 ma at 57.32.

Just my observation of the chart and the way I think I see it developing over the next few days or so. This stock is very close to that domino effect starting because of the large and concentrated amount of stock sitting right below this level of support. Which once broken now becomes resistance. On top of all that it has been clearly heavily overbought and shows that in by the long period of time it has spent above the 70 line (overbought) on it's RSI on the daily.

If you have the time to take a look at the weekly chart you will see that since last March there have been 2 other run-ups that experienced the exact same consolidation and pullback after each run-up. The stock is showing the same exact pattern that it experienced at each of the other reversals. It looks very much like it is getting ready to go off to the short side.

I only happened to come upon this stock because it came up in this Ernie's top 5 but right now I'm looking at it as a great short prospect over the immediate short term. This is not to say that it will not go on to accompolish Ernie's target.
__________________

[Tatnic]

I don't know or care so much about what it does over the next 6 wks. or longer but it don't look good to me right now or over the immediate short term. I posted this earlier this morning.

I took a look at one of the stocks in MM's top 5 and I really don't know anything about them and what they even do or look like fundamentally but the daily chart is suggesting to me that over the very near short term it is going to drop dramatically. This is how I see it and what has and is developing with it.

On the daily it is sitting just above it's 20 ma at 67.33. FMD closed at 67.70 yesterday down .16. Right below the 20 ma is the 20 ema. at 66.06. These are two important support lines that if broken leaves the stock open to 57 level at the 50 ma. From Sept. 18, the day it spiked and gapped up, this stock has been in a steep uptrend. These steep spikes up always suggest that there are alot of people in at specific levels. Alot of those levels are way below the close yesterday at 67.70.

This is only my own observation and is meant only for the immediate short term. If you look at the daily the uptrend is definitely flattening out and starting to roll over. This is where I see the large amount of traders holding stock at much lower levels starting to sell as they see in advance that this could definitely go lower. The exiting/sell-off begins and the domino effect begins and the stock falls to another lower support level. This time at perhaps the 20 ema at 66.06. Once it breaks through it's 20 ma at 67.33 which is only .37 below it's close yesterday it can easily find it's way down to the 20 ema and somewhere lower between the 20 ema and the 50 ma at 57.32.

Just my observation of the chart and the way I think I see it developing over the next few days or so. This stock is very close to that domino effect starting because of the large and concentrated amount of stock sitting right below this level of support. Which once broken now becomes resistance. On top of all that it has been clearly heavily overbought and shows that in by the long period of time it has spent above the 70 line (overbought) on it's RSI on the daily.

If you have the time to take a look at the weekly chart you will see that since last March there have been 2 other run-ups that experienced the exact same consolidation and pullback after each run-up. The stock is showing the same exact pattern that it experienced at each of the other reversals. It looks very much like it is getting ready to go off to the short side.

I only happened to come upon this stock because it came up in this Ernie's top 5 but right now I'm looking at it as a great short prospect over the immediate short term. This is not to say that it will not go on to accompolish Ernie's target.
__________________

I tend to see the same thing as you at first glance but we have to remember that the market is acting like its on steroids presently and can keep going higher and higher in the near term, taking strong stocks like these with it. Once the bullish % #'s top out then that list could be a good place to pick some short candidates. But we're still a ways from the bullish % numbers turning bearish IMO.

[Peter Hansen]

Fmd

FMD Scored well by Zacks (Strong Buy) and 2nd in Moringstar comparison with the other 4!

[Tatnic]

FMD Scored well by Zacks (Strong Buy) and 2nd in Moringstar comparison with the other 4!

the more I hear about how loved this stock is, the more worried I get about going long. Certainly wouldn't do so without writing calls against it.