Interesting Stocks

[BlueWolf]

My cost of entry after legging in like I did is around $145, so I’m happy. Believe it or not, my main goal was not a quick profit. If that’s all I wanted, there were many other, less risky trades. What I really wanted was a long term position in SPCX at or near $135, which was the original IPO price. I didn’t quite get there, but I’m happy with what I have. I really believe that a year or so from now, I’m going to be happy with my position. I can even see myself adding more shares if it dips a lot. I believe that 2027 is going to be a big year for SPCX.

I’ve also continued to dig into Anthropic and Open AI, and I am started to get a better sense about how they’re both hoping to scale. I’m leaning towards thinking Anthropic has a better path to profitability, but it’s still early in the game. I have substantial fears about what they’re doing, however. Both of them are on the cusp of having their AI do all or most of it’s own coding, which means we might soon have have self-sustaining, self-evolving AI, which is scary. Deciding which company to invest could end up being a moot point.

[jiesen]

You see? Any shares you sold at 205 yesterday could be bought back today at 175. (or tomorrow for 165, probably)

You sees? Now's the chance to get back in at under 160.

[jiesen]

Yeah, robotics has been, and will continue to be a growing industry. We would all do well to dig more into these companies, and find the best of them to own for the next 10 years of advanced robotics. Thanks for the list of examples to look into!

[BlueWolf]

I just saw an interesting video that discussed the fact that Amazon now has 1 million robots working side-by-side with 1.5 million human employees in its warehouse. Moreover, this ratio is rapidly approaching 1:1. So I did a little digging (I plan to do a lot more) to try and find some of the companies that are supplying all these robots. I came across a number of them. One that really impressed me was an outfit called Universal Robots, which makes something called collaborative robots in the form of robotic arms. This company was bought by Teradyne (TER) back in 2017, and it’s become very good for the bottom line, especially over the last year and a half. Take a look at the chart. I don’t think this is likely to be a one off as this industry, which has primarily been operating in larger operations, is growing extremely fast and starting to spread to smaller companies. I wish I had spotted TER earlier, but there has to be other good opportunities out there. There are a lot of companies now making robots or important components for robots. A few examples are CGNX, SERV, GMED, BSX, IRSG, SYM, and ZBRA. I have to do a lot more digging in this area.

[jiesen]

If you have a good-sized gain right now, I would say it's a good time to lock that in at around 200. Don't worry about missing out on more, you should have another chance to get in below $175 again, either soon or once the insiders are able to sell their stock.

You see? Any shares you sold at 205 yesterday could be bought back today at 175. (or tomorrow for 165, probably)

[jiesen]

I sold another 1/3, and I’m going to hang on to the rest for now.

That was a very good call. Congrats on getting the quick profit out of this monster stock, BW!

[BlueWolf]

If you have a good-sized gain right now, I would say it's a good time to lock that in at around 200. Don't worry about missing out on more, you should have another chance to get in below $175 again, either soon or once the insiders are able to sell their stock.

I sold another 1/3, and I’m going to hang on to the rest for now.

[jiesen]

If you have a good-sized gain right now, I would say it's a good time to lock that in at around 200. Don't worry about missing out on more, you should have another chance to get in below $175 again, either soon or once the insiders are able to sell their stock.

[BlueWolf]

I wish I had legged in pre-IPO now. I really think, after the reading I’ve been doing over the last few days, that SPCX is going to be a keeper for the long run.

I still have my doubts about OpenAI and Anthropic, but, hey, maybe I just need to dig a little deeper. I can convince myself of just about anything if I try hard enough .

[jiesen]

Well, with a share price of over 190 you've obviously made a good choice to jump on the SPCX rocket. Even SATS has started to perk up, since it can't help to be boosted along with SPCX... good luck with the rest of the run, and I think it could keep going for a while before any actual selling in size happens!

[BlueWolf]

Well, I now have a position in SpaceX. I took a bit of a risk in the way I entered, though, in order to give myself a buffer. I took a triple position position (to my normal size position), and because I was lucky enough to catch a wave, I sold 1/3 of the position today and booked a little profit. If continues to run tomorrow, I’ll sell off another third, and then move a stop to just below my original entry with the hope of hanging on to a normal sized position. If it doesn’t retrace past my stop, I’ll have a long term position I can hang on to. If it retraces, I’ll book some profit, reload, and try again when the charts look promising. I’m now convinced there’s something worth having here for the long term.

[BlueWolf]

It has been my understanding that a positive EPS is not necessary to achieve GAAP profitability. A company can have a negative EPS while still being profitable under GAAP. The money coming in from the IPO may not be booked as revenue, but it is booked as additional paid in capital, which is income, is it not? I think I may have muddied the waters when I said positive GAAP earnings, when what I meant was simply GAAP profitability. Sorry about that.

You may be correct about the four consecutive quarters, however. I assumed it was a TTM requirement, but perhaps it was 4 consecutive Q’s, which was part of what the S&P declined to waive. Still, I’m sure that if SpaceX wants to be listed on the S&P in 2027 it would be a simple enough matter for them to either structure their income or raise new sources of income in order to satisfy a 4 consecutive quarter requirement.

[jiesen]

Raising money by selling stock doesn't always result in an immediate increase in earnings, but it can allow them to spend a lot more. That spending will likely take time before it shows up as earnings, since it'll be used mostly to build out the AI business and pay for rocket R&D. Perhaps I'm wrong (I've been known to say a few dumb things) but I believe in order for the S&P to take SPCX into its index, the entire company must have positive income per GAAP, not just a part of it, for each of the 4 quarters. Taken as a whole, SPCX isn't likely to have a net positive income for the next few quarters, imo.

Also, google agrees with this:
Asking Gemini: SPCX has had an IPO. will that make its EPS go up?
Gives:
No, the IPO will almost certainly cause SpaceX's (SPCX) reported GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) to go down significantly in the short term, even if its actual rocket and satellite business continues to grow. [1]

[BlueWolf]

[QUOTE=jiesen;n192964]So you believe SpaceX will be profitable over the next year, for each quarter? They have recently been unprofitable, and it seems unlikely to me that they will have 4 quarters of GAAP positive earnings anytime soon. The rockets do make money, but the AI business is burning it up faster.

You’re forgetting that they just did a giant IPO, so yes they’ll have positive GAAP income.

[jiesen]

So you believe SpaceX will be profitable over the next year, for each quarter? They have recently been unprofitable, and it seems unlikely to me that they will have 4 quarters of GAAP positive earnings anytime soon. The rockets do make money, but the AI business is burning it up faster.

Here's what 4 analysts estimate for SPCX earnings over the next 4 quarters:

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-SPCX/forecast/