HG ==> The Heat Wave Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 6106

    HG ==> The Heat Wave Winner

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    Remember when you were a little kid and you heard all these horrible stories of people missing when they went through the Bermuda Triangle? Well, Bermuda isn’t all bad. In fact, there is a great insurance company headquartered in Bermuda. Today I bought stock in Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd (HG) at $34.71. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at $40.10. Here’s why I like HG:

    Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, operates as specialty insurance and reinsurance company in Bermuda and internationally. It operates Hamilton Global Specialty, Hamilton Select, and Hamilton Re underwriting platforms. The company offers casualty reinsurance products, such as commercial auto, general liability, healthcare, multiline, personal motor, professional liability, umbrella and excess casualty, and worker's compensation and employer's liability reinsurance; property reinsurance and insurance; and specialty reinsurance solutions, including accident and health, aviation and space, crisis management, mortgage, financial risks, marine and energy, and multiline specialty. It also provides accident and health, cyber, energy, environmental, financial lines, fine art and specie, kidnap and ransom, mergers and acquisitions, marine and energy liability, political risk and violence, professional liability, property binders, property direct and facultative, professional lines, space, upstream energy, excess casualty, war and terrorism, allied medical, products liability and contractors, management liability, medical professionals, general liability, and small business casualty insurance plans, as well as surety and treaty reinsurance products. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.

    While everyone was tracking Taylor Swift’s wedding seating chart at MSG to see why Blake Lively got snubbed, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ was busy doing what he does best: printing absolute, unadulterated generational wealth. Hamilton Insurance Group isn’t some speculative AI vaporware startup promising to revolutionize "data center compute" in the year 2040 while burning cash like a loose Tesla battery. This is a cold, hard, free-cash-flow-generating specialty insurance and reinsurance machine. We are looking at massive multiple expansion as the street wakes up to their accelerating earnings momentum and fortress-tier balance sheet.

    Let’s look at the Q1 2026 print that absolutely blew past the ANAL-yst’s pathetic estimates. Wall Street expected a meager $1.08 EPS. What did Hamilton deliver? A massive $1.64 EPS. That is a $0.56 beat. Pure domination. This stock is cheap…why? ANAL-ysts are are whining about. “Oh, but $$$MR. MARKET$$$ what about the $14 million unfavorable prior-year reserve development from the Baltimore Bridge collapse?” Are you kidding me? CEO Giuseppina Albo and CFO Craig Howie completely handled it. The Baltimore Bridge was a single, isolated, historic event from years ago. It’s a one-off. Meanwhile, the current catastrophe environment is beautifully quiet. Last year, the industry got absolutely wrecked by California wildfires and crazy aviation claims. Q1 2026? Zero catastrophic losses. It’s like people are still wearing masks when they are outside driving their convertibles. The risk is way way overestimated! And check out their premium strategy. Gross written premiums grew 11%, but net premiums only grew half of that. Why? Because management is brilliant. They are taking advantage of weaker reinsurance pricing to cede about $300 million in premiums over time through a brand-new casualty reinsurance sidecar. They are literally letting other people hold the bag while they collect sweet fee income.

    As CEO Albo said on the recent earnings call:

    "Growth for growth’s sake is not the objective, at least not ours. Margin preservation, attachment points, and terms and conditions matter far more."

    That is discipline. That is called having the fortitude to walk away from bad business. They rejected medical and professional lines because the pricing didn't match their royalty requirements. They aren't chasing trash layers.

    While other financial firms are sweating bullets over illiquid, opaque private credit deals that could blow up any second, Hamilton has built a beautiful, bulletproof, barbelled $5.9 billion investment portfolio. Half of which is in zero-default government and related securities. Their corporate bond exposure has an elite A- average rating. Liquid, high-quality, investment-grade credits. Let’s talk about history. Since their IPO, Hamilton’s book value per share plus accumulated dividends has grown approximately 70%. They are compounding intrinsic value at an exponential rate.

    And they love sending money back to the winners. In February, they declared a massive $200 million special dividend (paid in March). They bought back $20 million of stock in Q1 2026 alone, and they still have $159 million left under their share repurchase authorization. CFO Craig Howie openly stated they have the flexibility to do both elevated buybacks and special dividends for the rest of the year.
    Yet, the stock trades at a ridiculous valuation. Back in late 2025, it was trading at just over 3.5x EBITDA and a P/E ratio of 6.5. Even near its 52-week highs, it's still wildly undervalued given a return on equity of 23.19% and projected annual EPS north of $4.12.

    The big investment houses are already starting to capitulate to my genius. Wells Fargo just upgraded their price target from $37.00 to $39.00 with an Overweight rating. Citizens JMP raised theirs to $38.00. Wall Street Zen upgraded them from a hold to a straight buy. Once the Q2 updates roll in, the multiple expansion is going to hit like a freight train.

    Hamilton survived the worst hurricane seasons on record in 2017 and 2024 while remaining highly profitable. Unless they are insuring a fictional alien invasion in the next month, this downside is totally protected by $2.7 billion in shareholders' equity and top-tier financial strength ratings (A by AM Best, A by KBRA, A- by Fitch).

    Cheap stocks that make money? I’m all in. Take me to the CASH window…I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    www.mrmarketishuge.com

    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
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