The JAE16 Experiment

[jae16]

Well I got out of WIRE at 15.40, that was a loss that I was willing to take... the market just is not providing the correct conditions for the magic to happen here...

I sold short FCX at 82.50 and bought to cover this morning at 79.50... so not so great but not to bad aiether...

For now I am gonna get into cash and just watch... I would like to short some ... but my tech analy. is not good enough to do too much of this, at this point...

[IIC]

Well... If the market continues in this downtrend... this play on WIRE will inevitably fail... So I am sticking to my stop loss of somewhere around 15.20, and hoping that the market makes a turn up... However, I am not holding my breathe...

SELL SELL SELL

HOPE is a 4 Letter Word...But we are all guilty to one degree or another.

One thing...And you are one of the people I have thot of recently regarding this...Please don't give up on the Cups w/ Handles and the ones you are trying to find forming a cup...Those types are great in a bull market...even a short term bull.

Good time to study up so you'll be ready for the next move. Try and backtest if you can.

I made a bundle from late April thru late Octboer playing the CwH types...Went back to day trading as the market crumbled but I'll be ready when a new bull market starts...I won't catch the early stages of it...I'd rather wait for some confirmations...And I don't think it will be any time soon either...Meanwhile, day trades have been a bit tough too except for the Ultra ETF's...So I'll concentrate on those until they don't work anymore...WHATEVER WORKS!!!

[jae16]

If the market continues in this downtrend, just about anything long will fail. Bottoms will drop out, breakouts will fail, it will be ugly and painful. Gainers will be few and far between. Sticking to your plan is the best plan.

my strategy is to find short sales now...

Well... If the market continues in this downtrend... this play on WIRE will inevitably fail... So I am sticking to my stop loss of somewhere around 15.20, and hoping that the market makes a turn up... However, I am not holding my breathe...

SELL SELL SELL

If the market continues in this downtrend, just about anything long will fail. Bottoms will drop out, breakouts will fail, it will be ugly and painful. Gainers will be few and far between. Sticking to your plan is the best plan.

[jae16]

Well... If the market continues in this downtrend... this play on WIRE will inevitably fail... So I am sticking to my stop loss of somewhere around 15.20, and hoping that the market makes a turn up... However, I am not holding my breathe...

SELL SELL SELL

[jae16]

Thanks to ski for the answer to my question, and to Jerry for letting us use his thread for a while. (Hi, Jerry )

Hahaha absolutely... and please discuss anything you want in this topic... I just hope we can all learn something from this, especially when it comes to plays that have been made, and why they were made etc...

[jae16]

I hate to predict but I feel this is the beginning of the turn up. there will be points where it will pull back as it trends up. every uptrend has short small pullbacks as it subtly trends up until you realize it has just moved 2 to 3 or 3 to 4 points in a few days or a week or so you almost didn't realize it.
I thought you saw something that I didn't in FCX's chart and then when you switched sides so quickly to the long side I was totally surprised. Look at it now. You had it right with the first trade. A 7% stop and honoring it would have kept you in the trade and look at those gains today. Everyone has to have a plan and a specific strategy or discipline in knowing how they want to trade. I don't think you can daytrade and swing trade successfully at the same time. I think it is hard enough to develope one good discipline and have the control to follow that. And you have to give that some serious thought and put all your energies into developing that if you want to be really successful at this. It takes years to do that and evolve into a successful trading style that when kept to will consistently provide a high winning percentage over the course of time year in and year out. It's what separates the wheat from the chaff.

You know what.... I feel ashamed for making that move with FCX, and I should have stuck to my 7% stopp loss plan.... however instead I jumped the gun and got so excited that the stock had bounced off the bottom wall.... I could have made a nice gain there if I would have stuck to the plan... And you are right about mastering one art at a time...

Trust me... That lesson I learned with FCX right there will certainly not be forgotten... and I think it is good that something like that happened so quickly in my investing career... (not to mention it was just a paper trade)

[billyjoe]

GEHL was a favorite of Lyehoppers many months ago although it may have been because he owned the actual machinery. At the time I remember there seemed to be little fundamentally or technically to catch a person's eye.

------------billyjoe

Thanks to ski for the answer to my question, and to Jerry for letting us use his thread for a while. (Hi, Jerry )

[skiracer]

? I didn't say anything about where you got them. What was that about?

My question or comment was that an analysis just like the one you are doing now, if it had been done in Sept/Oct timeframe, wouldn't it have looked like the stock was forming the right side of a base? I'm talking about a backtesting kind of thing. Would they have looked like a buy to you in Sept/Oct timeframe, before they dropped further? If not, why not?

Stenz,
I'm such an idiot! I took the first post wrong and apoligize. Coincidence that you bring that up because in the chart back in Aug./Sept/Oct. it did start to form a smaller depth and length cup and I saw that. Also looked to want to be starting the right side. I can't say if I would have caught it then because what brought it to me was that it had hit a 52 week low in one of BarCharts scans and in my own. I'm not sure if the low point of the bottom of that early cup would have qualified as a 52 week low and gotten picked up by one of those two scans at that point or price.
If I had seen them then and I cannot remember if I did I don't think I would have been as interested in them then as I am now because of the depth and duration of the cup base at this point in relation to the depth of that cup base and lenth of time. But mainly the depth which means deeper distribution to me. More of a complete selloff drives the stock down farther and allows cheap accumulation from some point in the bottom of the base. Just part of my logic but not the determining factor. The uniformity along with the depth are my basic parameters which I like and look for. These two were classic patterns to me in my own mind and definition. And I have had good luck with them and have refined my own shortcomings to know the ones that have a good chance of working from the ones that have a lesser chance. These patterns and setups have been very good for me. I control the trade with stops and let the gainers go. If you stop the losses early and short but reasonable the percentage of gainers from these patterns will far outweigh the losses. Sorry about the first post. I am going to delete it.

I'm not sure what you mean Stenz. I'm pretty sure I picked them both up from the 52 week low lists at BarCharts.com. or one of my own scans. I know that I didn't get them from someone else here or anywhere. Back in Sept/Oct GEHL was trading within the $25 to $23 range and in a downward trend but that was 3 1/2 months ago. Wire was at $27 in Sept/Oct. and had been range bound at those levels from August. They have both dropped considerably since then. I know that I didn't take get them from anyone else or take them from anyone else if that's what you're implying. But what has that got to do with the call to make the buy right here. I think they are both good calls and trades regardless. I know that I have posted at least a dozen times about how this is my favorite pattern and have had several decent gainers from this type of pattern which I'm sure I have posted the charts and trades on right here at Ernies.
Anyway no big. I just want to see them continue making that right side of their cup. And would hope that some others would see the value in the two charts and trades and maybe feel confident enough to make the plays themselves.

? I didn't say anything about where you got them. What was that about?

My question or comment was that an analysis just like the one you are doing now, if it had been done in Sept/Oct timeframe, wouldn't it have looked like the stock was forming the right side of a base? I'm talking about a backtesting kind of thing. Would they have looked like a buy to you in Sept/Oct timeframe, before they dropped further? If not, why not?

[skiracer]

WIRE & GEHL are looking good today as of now both up 3.4% amongst a see of red on my watch list... Hopefully, these two will keep forming this base, or even turn up and begin to form the right side... Only time and the market will tell...

I hate to predict but I feel this is the beginning of the turn up. there will be points where it will pull back as it trends up. every uptrend has short small pullbacks as it subtly trends up until you realize it has just moved 2 to 3 or 3 to 4 points in a few days or a week or so you almost didn't realize it.
I thought you saw something that I didn't in FCX's chart and then when you switched sides so quickly to the long side I was totally surprised. Look at it now. You had it right with the first trade. A 7% stop and honoring it would have kept you in the trade and look at those gains today. Everyone has to have a plan and a specific strategy or discipline in knowing how they want to trade. I don't think you can daytrade and swing trade successfully at the same time. I think it is hard enough to develope one good discipline and have the control to follow that. And you have to give that some serious thought and put all your energies into developing that if you want to be really successful at this. It takes years to do that and evolve into a successful trading style that when kept to will consistently provide a high winning percentage over the course of time year in and year out. It's what separates the wheat from the chaff.

I think both GEHL and WIRE are good entries and plays right here. You have to believe in the pattern/formation and have the experience of trading it successfully a number of times to get to feel comfortable with them. Low risk and high reward with both of these setups right here. Both trades are laid out for you and are still good entries at these levels.

I don't follow these two, probably because they're in downtrends. I mean no disrespect, ski, but wouldn't the analysis showing a developing base for these also have been the result of such an analysis in Sep/Oct for both of these?

[stojakapimp]

Ggb

What do you guys think of GGB right now? With today's drop, it's price went lower than the previous triangular low. Does that mean that it's broken out of its ascending triangle pattern and shouldn't be expected to go up now, or would you still consider it a nice chart?

[jae16]

I want and expect them to hold this developing cup base J. Yesterday was a good sign of them doing just that. It makes me feel there is accumulation sentiment in both stocks. There was some selling but in the end they both levelled out and closed right at my entries with both. Both are now sitting right below their respective 50 dma's. That is the next line of resistance and if they break thru those lines there is a nice area between there and the next line of resistance at their respective 100 dma's. I'm comfortable with both positions but not the markets. Haven't the slightest idea of which direction they are headed in but farther down seems to be the trend right now so looking for a few short setups seems to make sense.

WIRE & GEHL are looking good today as of now both up 3.4% amongst a see of red on my watch list... Hopefully, these two will keep forming this base, or even turn up and begin to form the right side... Only time and the market will tell...