New Kid in Town -- My market strategy for maximizing profits

[stenzrob]

......it don't make a difference to me, as long as the end result is CASH.

Amen, brother.

[The Kid]

I just saw the following quote from Mr.Market himself in a post on his "personal homepage and stock portfolio" thread.

What I do know is that if I sell all of the stocks that drop 8%, I would have made a lot less money than if I had held them to their 15% target.

I do not know if the Huge One voted in my poll in the first post of this thread, but after having read his own statement above, I wonder how he would have voted? Using my 'plan' from this thread's first post, it seems there are many of his picks which do indeed go down below his 'buy' price. Applying my plan would provide even HUGER gains on those stocks. Since we all know (see 44 straight 15% winners thread) that all his selections eventually go up 15% or more, I like my chances of making even bigger gains on the Huge One selections I get in on.

Once again, I realize I may miss a few high fliers, and I note that the recent WSBK pick has not yet (if ever) dropped below the 'buy' price. If you look at the last dozen picks, you will see that virtually all of them did indeed get below the 'buy' price before reaching the 15% sell target, thus enabling you, the investor, to make 17, 18, or 20% on nearly all of them if you sold them at the target price (after buying at below the 'buy' price.)

Once again, I thank the Huge One, Stenz and others to 'raising my consciousness' of these stocks .

Happy and prosperous investing to all,

The Kid

[The Kid]

With proceeds from a biotech company I've been holding which reached an 18-month high today (CRA) and some earlier proceeds from selling some of my CCBI holdings, I purchased LENS today at $11.97. I got around to buying it today after finally having enough time to do my research on Stenz's holdings. I wish I had done my research and picked up the stock about a week ago at %10.50, but c'est la vie. Having sold VLGC at a 21% profit after purchasing it at $1.84 thirteen days earlier, I really wanted to be in on another Stenz special. To me, of his current holdings, it came down to LENS, NTST (which just plain went up too much for me today to buy it. ) and VLGC (again.)

Beacoup kudos to Stenz for his VLGC pick which is doing great since I sold it.

Happy and prosperous investing to all,

The Kid

[Mi6op]

Welcome to the LENS bandwagon, every day I read more about this stock and fine it more and more appealing. I was goign to sell around $15 but think it has enough to make it to the 20 range.

[The Kid]

I think it will be a fun ride (that LENS bandwagon.)

In other news, my having purchased at $39.20 (following my plan,) my remaining DHI holdings have now hit a 15% profit ($45.08.) I really, really like the company and the news I've been hearing about the sector over the last ten days. With that in mind, I believe I will hold on until I see a 20% profit -- $47.04, which I feel the stock could reach by the end of this week.

The SSNC I bought (see SSNC thread) is up over 7% in four trading days. While not a Huge One selection (although it was in his most recent data dump,) I hope some of you followed me on that one.

[The Kid]

Who knew? It seems 12/02 or 12/03 would have been a nice little day to trade everything I owned. At that point, everything I owned was up, some almost to 15% levels, others at around 4 - 5% in less than a week. It is factual that if I had sold then, I would have more money in my account than I have now. I am currently down about 8% overall in my entire account in about a week (as one can tell, I can be an aggressive investor.) But unlike in the past, I am not panicking, as all the stocks I own are quality companies. I want to thank the Huge One and Stenz for opening my consciousness to many of these companies. I have full confidence that in the near future the companies they interested me in, along with others I have picked on my own, will be back on track. I thank them for giving me confidence since I now own more quaility stocks than I used to. I've played the fool before. It's a fine role for a court jester, not a good one for an investor.

[The Kid]

I couldn't resist buying more DHI after it dropped off, on what I deem as little if not no news. It fell more than 8% and was below what I originally bought it for. So I sold my remaining CCBI at about a 7 1/2% profit and bought more DHI at $38.95. I aslo sold my PRX for a small 3 1/2% gain just to have some cash around in case I see what I deem is another bargain soon.

[stenzrob]

From cbs marketwatch movers & shakers yesterday,
"Shares of homebuilders declined after mortgage provider Washington Mutual (WM) warned of an earnings shortfall as fourth-quarter mortgage volumes were expected to be half that of the third quarter. Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) fell nearly 8 percent despite reporting late Monday fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that rose above year-earlier levels and topped expectations, and raised its 2004 outlook. Among other homebuilders, Centex (CTX) fell almost 5 percent, Toll Bros. (TOL) dropped more than 5 percent, Lennar (LEN) lost almost 4 percent and Pulte Homes (PHM) gave up nearly 5 percent."

This from today,
"11:39am 12/10/03 Homebuilders extend slide amid mortgage demand concerns (TOL, HOV, CTX, DHI, LEN, WM) By Tomi Kilgore

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Shares of homebuilders continued to slide amid concerns of declining mortgage demand, despite recent better-than-expected earnings reports from sector heavyweights. Toll Brothers (TOL) dropped $1.70, or 4.3 percent, to $37.75 after reporting fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $1.19 a share, a nickel a share above consensus analyst expectations. The stock had slumped 5.2 percent on Tuesday after Washington Mutual (WM) said fourth-quarter mortgage volume was expected to be half that of third-quarter levels. The stock and has now dropped 12 percent since closing at an all-time high of $43 on Dec. 1. Hovnanian (HOV) , which reported better-than-expected earnings late Monday, was last down $4.29, or 4.8 percent, at $84.71, after losing 7.7 percent on Tuesday. Centex (CTX) was down $3.83 at $103.68, D.R. Horton (DHI) gave up $2.18 to $40.20 and Lennar (LEN) lost $3.37 to $92.24, after losing $5.29, $2.09 and $3.89, respectively, on Tuesday"

This is why O'Neill says to pay attention to the individual stock, it's industry, and the market in general. If homebuilders are now out of favor, you're unlikely to see much gain from DHI soon.

[The Kid]

Thanks Stenz, but I did see those reports as I was watching CNBC most of the day. I think dropping 8% was more of a knee-jerk reaction. I knew of the reduction in mortgage demand before I re-upped, buying more shares of DHI. I just really like what I see in the company. I could be wrong here, only time will tell. When I said not much news, I meant specifically concerning DHI. I do, of course, understand that the mortgage news could greatly impact the amount of homes being built etc. I personally think that by the time it may/does, I will have made my fifteen percent. (Unless everybody who has made their money with homebuilders over the last four-five years decides its time to exit at once.... )

[RL]

homebuilders

I also bought mor of DHI today. As long as people buy homes the builders will make money. In many ways It,s a better investment than stocks. Andthere Is no foreign competition.