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Tech Rally Coming?
According to an article which appears in the Free Smart Profits Report 9/11/08 #557 Paul Moore says the following . Will this hold up .....when you lay your money down ......who knows? If you believe the Nasday will rise between September -December of 08 .....simply bet on Profunds Ultra QQQ which gives you Double the upside if the Nasdaq rises, but also remember it will give you DOUBLE the Down side should the Nasdaq fall! Without further discussion ...here is the article and interesting chart !
" The End-Of-Year Tech Rally
Right now, the Nasdaq Composite index is down about 11% on the year. But history shows that this trend doesn’t necessarily continue until the end of the year.
As you can see, there have been six instances over the past 10 years where the Nasdaq Composite’s returns over the first eight months of the year were negative.
But on all six occasions, the index promptly rallied into the end of the year. Not only were the returns positive, they were impressive, notching up an average of 14.6%.
This unusual occurrence could be due to several factors…
The benefit of stocks being oversold
Optimism about the coming year
The expectation for outperformance as companies experience budget flush
Fund managers putting more capital to work in order to aggressively chase year-end performance
Regardless of the cause, a correlation exists. "
Composite Return
1-8 month 9-12 Month Annual
2008 -10.7% Inncomplete Incomplete
2007 +7.5 +2.2% + 9.8%
2006 -1.0 +10.6 + 9.5
2005 -1.2 +2.5 + 1.2
2004 -8.2 +18.54 +9.7
2003 35.6 +10.74 +50.0
2002 -32.6 +1.6 -31.5
2001 -26.9 +8.0 -21.1
2000 +3.4 -41.3 -39.3
1999 +24.9 +48.6 + 85.6
1998 -4.5 +48.3 +39.6
" The End-Of-Year Tech Rally
Right now, the Nasdaq Composite index is down about 11% on the year. But history shows that this trend doesn’t necessarily continue until the end of the year.
As you can see, there have been six instances over the past 10 years where the Nasdaq Composite’s returns over the first eight months of the year were negative.
But on all six occasions, the index promptly rallied into the end of the year. Not only were the returns positive, they were impressive, notching up an average of 14.6%.
This unusual occurrence could be due to several factors…
The benefit of stocks being oversold
Optimism about the coming year
The expectation for outperformance as companies experience budget flush
Fund managers putting more capital to work in order to aggressively chase year-end performance
Regardless of the cause, a correlation exists. "
Composite Return
1-8 month 9-12 Month Annual
2008 -10.7% Inncomplete Incomplete
2007 +7.5 +2.2% + 9.8%
2006 -1.0 +10.6 + 9.5
2005 -1.2 +2.5 + 1.2
2004 -8.2 +18.54 +9.7
2003 35.6 +10.74 +50.0
2002 -32.6 +1.6 -31.5
2001 -26.9 +8.0 -21.1
2000 +3.4 -41.3 -39.3
1999 +24.9 +48.6 + 85.6
1998 -4.5 +48.3 +39.6