ParkTwain's Parlor

All-time high watch: EYE and HMT

OH MAN! Look at BRCM tonight after hours!!!!!! OWWW, no position! OWWWW!

[IIC]

Bought small position this morning in RMIX. Good action today. All-time high and then some.

At end of session today, my trading account is up 15.7% YTD 2006. This includes an open position with >33% gain in DDD.

Also, the market liked OXPS's earnings news this morning. New ATH breakout on great volume.

DDD...your pick of the year...nice...Doug(IIC)

Bought small position this morning in RMIX. Good action today. All-time high and then some.

At end of session today, my trading account is up 15.7% YTD 2006. This includes an open position with >33% gain in DDD.

Also, the market liked OXPS's earnings news this morning. New ATH breakout on great volume.

Generally useful, 4-page article about looking for and trading a breakout from a trading range:

http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/articles/general_articles/range-breakouts-and-trading-tactics/

This article somewhat reiterates what I had posted earlier on this thread regarding watching a breakout for a regression back to, or below, the top of the establishing range (or previous resistance point). A reasonable approach is to establish perhaps one-half of your intended total position at the time of the breakout, then watch for any any retracement to the previous resistance point (which should eventually serve as support after the breakout occurs), then when the breakout trend is confirmed, follow through by entering the remainder of your intended total position.

As I have posted before, I believe you can anticipate with good accuracy when there is a better than even chance for a breakout to occur, by observing (1) a preceding upward trending in the stock's RSI plot before the pps reaches the pivot, and (2) a strongly diverging +DI and -DI plots in the Wilder DMX plot (see stockcharts.com).

Sold OXPS Fri. morning for close to a 20% gain. Checked in later in the day and was shocked to see how it had dropped. I sold after watching it struggle while approaching 30.00/sh. OXPS earnings annoucement is out 01/26.

Sold ANX Fri. morning at a 2% loss.

My present long positions: QCOM, DDD. Trading account up 12.7% YTD 2006.

DDD continues to power ahead in a down market.

My present long positions: OXPS, DDD, QCOM, ANX. Trading account up 13.0% YTD 2006.

The chart. Recent breakout above 4.00/sh, but retracement yesterday and today. Tried to get the dip this morning, which would price it within 5% above that pivot. Early morning dip was quickly recovered (candlestick "hammer" I believe it's called), indicating strength, probable end of dip. I had identified this one several days ago in a previous post. All-time high (about 5.00/sh) was made very early in the stock's life (Jan 2001) and on low volume.

[grebnet]

Anx

Can I ask why you are buying ANX ?? Thanks

Buying some ANX this morning.

In today's news re: Iran:

//
"The Iranian nuclear issue is driving the market. Traders are short-covering because they know if something happens in Iran the market would be in confusion," said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo. "The issue poses a threat of supply disruption in a major oil-producing country."

Russia and China on Monday joined the U.S. and its European allies in demanding that Iran fully abandon its nuclear program. The powers called for an emergency board meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Feb. 2-3 to discuss the issue.
//

Turmoil manifest in spot oil prices could continue thorugh Feb. 2-3. Fasten your seat belts!

In Schwager's Market Wizards, here are some quotes from Bruce Kovner (currency trader):

"The first rule of trading--there are probably many first rules--is don't get caught in a situation in which you can lose a great deal of money for reasons you don't understand."

"Tight congestions in which a breakout occurs for reasons that nobody understands are usually good risk/reward trades. ... If everybody believes there is no reason for corn to break out, and it suddenly does, the chances that there is an important underlying cause are much greater."

"The more a price pattern is observed by speculators, the more prone you are to have false signals. The more a market is the product of nonspeculative activity, the greater the significance of technical breakouts. ... The general rule is: The less observed, the better the trade."

"The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis."

In Schwager's Market Wizards, here are some great quotes from Paul Tudor Jones:

"When you are trading size, you have to get out when the market lets you out, not when you want to get out."

"When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion."

"One of the things that Tullis (famous cotton market trader, New Orleans) taught me was the importance of time. When I trade, I don't just use a price stop, I also use a time stop. If I think a market should break, and it doesn't, I will often get out even if I am not losing any money."

New to my bookshelf this week:

Stock Trader's Almanac 2006
Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators, by Gregory L. Morris
The Professional Commodity Trader, by Stanley Kroll
Ten Years in Wall Street, by Wm. Worthington Fowler (1870)
Street Smarts (High Probability Short Term Trading Strategies), by Connors and Raschke

Currently reading:

Market Wizards, by Jack Schwager (GREAT STUFF)
Battle for Investment Survival, by G.M. Loeb (1957)

I just finished Schwager's chapter (interview) with Larry Hite. Check out these quotes:

"I have noticed that everyone who has ever told me that the markets are efficient is poor."

"What makes this business so fabulous is that, while you may not know what will happen tomorrow, you can have a very good idea what will happen over the long run."

"The truth is that, while you can't quantify reward, you can quantify risk."

"I don't trade for excitement, I trade to win."

"If you do not manage the risk, eventually they will carry you out."

"If you argue with the market, you will lose."

"Most people think that a losing trade was a bad bet. You can lose money even on a good bet. If the odds on a bet are 50/50 and the payoff is $2 versus a $1 risk, that is a good bet even if you lose."

(in response to a question about backtesting trading methods) "It is incredible how rich you can get by not being perfect. We are not looking for the optimum method; we are looking for the hardiest method."

"In trading, you can define three categories of players: the trade, the floor, and the speculator. The trade has the best product knowledge and the best ways of getting out of positions. For example, if they are caught in a bad position in the futures market, they can offset their risk in the cash market. The floor has the advantage of speed. You can never be faster than the floor. While the speculator doesn't have the product knowledge or the speed, he does have the advantage of not having to play. The speculator can choose to only bet when the odds are in his favor. That is an important positional advantage."

[IIC]

Was checking out the "Tag and Bag" pages at Clearstation.com. Under the "Oil and Gas Operations" industry, out of the top 59 stocks listed (sorted by RS), only 13 stocks are more than 10% below their respective 52-wk highs. This whole sector is obviously about to skyrocket again due to international tensions over Iran.

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-b...hidepenny=TRUE

I don't know about the tensions...But looking at the charts...I believe you are right...Doug