ParkTwain's Parlor

Was checking out the "Tag and Bag" pages at Clearstation.com. Under the "Oil and Gas Operations" industry, out of the top 59 stocks listed (sorted by RS), only 13 stocks are more than 10% below their respective 52-wk highs (and several of those 13 aren't significant because they are thinly traded). This whole sector is obviously about to skyrocket again due to international tensions over Iran.

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/Itechnicals?TB=1&Industry=71&IndustryName=Oil%2b%26%2bGas%2bOperations&Ordering=RSRATE&SortDir=-1&hidepenny=TRUE

[IIC]

What's this world coming to??? First 2 of the stocks on my checkout list this morn DRQ and QSII show up on Steck's lists...Then ADBE shows up on PT's list...Whoa...Am I getting good...Or are they????...LOL

New ATH breakout candidates list for a long position based on 1/13/06 new highs list:

ANX, AXE
BRY
CWEI
HYDL
KEYS
MYE
STXS
XTXI
WHQ

Most of these are oil exploration or oil services companies.

OXPS popping up again, new 52-wk and all-time high.

Adbe

Park,

Wow!! I wasn't expecting such a comprehensive answer to my question.

Thanks alot.

I will be watching ADBE closely and will set some alerts in my Ameritrade account.

Hi there,

Yahoo's "max" chart for ADBE shows the ATH occurring in late year 2000, but I can't tell very specifically what that high was. I can use stockchart.com's beta charting tool to view a specific range of data. (Their regular site with free access goes back only 3 years of data.)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Using a 2000 to 2003 timeframe, I can see that the high was actually a double top that occurred in Oct and Nov 1999 at 42.50. Today's close for ADBE is 39.50.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ADBE,uu[h,a]daolyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ll14]&pref=G
(paste this entire URL into your browser's URL field)

As of today, in addition to noticing an uptrending RSI that is between 65 and 70 (perfect!), the few momentum-oriented technical indicators that I watch via stockcharts.com (acc/distr., Chaikin Money Flow, and Wilder ADX) are right now corroborating a nice setup situation for this stock. The breaching of the ATH on the upside will be the culmination of the setup. I prefer for the RSI to be below 70 if possible when the pps is just reaching (that is, a % or two below) the ATH pps. But that preference isn't necessary for me to act.

If you trade using an online broker (you should), use their facilities to set a price alert for ADBE at 92% to 95% of that previous ATH. When that alert triggers, if the same momentum technicals still look favorable at that time, you can (1) go long at around 5% below the previous ATH, or (2) begin watching it and its momentum technicals further while also seting a new alert at 101% of the previous ATH so that you are alerted for the actual ATH breakout.

NOTE: A stock that is strengthening right now like ADBE is can "pop" above that previous ATH at any time (on high volume, preferably), especially after it has drawn within 5% or so of that point. So you might prefer to start watching these kinds of candidates at a pps of 90% or so of the previous ATH instead of my usual 95%.

If the overall market, including (for the case of ADBE) the market for large-cap tech stocks, is acting strong when the first alert (95% of the previous ATH) triggers, it might be OK to open a partial long position in ADBE. However, you must also keep watching the stock for whether it fails (over the course of a timeframe that you must decide on and be comfortable with) to breakout. After the alert on the actual ATH breakout triggers, you can add to your position.

In a market environment when you feel you have a reason to be more conservative about adding a new long position (even for ATH breakouts), you should certainly wait to buy until AFTER the ATH breakout has occurred, BUT make sure that you make the buy within 105% of that previous ATH price.

After the breakout has happened and after only a few % of gain, for some stocks there is a retracement to (or near) the previous point (or a nearby range) of the previous ATH resistance. You want to be watching to ensure that, after your buy, this point starts serving as actual SUPPORT for your position. If it does not, then you must exit the position. Don't accept more than a 7% or so (that is, be aware of the stock's recent volatility) loss in the total position, including the buy after the ATH breakout. By being a little more aggressive and buying a partial position at a price under the ATH, you are giving yourself a little more wiggle room as to what your stop loss point (whether mental or actually placed as an order) should be.

However, I have found that for stocks with these setup characteristics, the number that fall back quickly after the ATH breakout is relatively low. That's the "setup formula" that I've been looking for all these years.

Adbe

Park,

Does Adobe fit your criteria? It looks like it is ready break out to an ATH.

If you're an oil and gas sector believer, you could do a lot worse than GSF these days. ATH being made recently.

QCOM - nice intraday ascending triangle setting up ...

Bought 300 sh QCOM this morning. Looking for significant near-term upside.

Other open positions: OXPS, DDD.

Trading account 2006 YTD: +10.4%

[billyjoe]

Park,
I was a member of "the street" I think when it was free. Also paid for a year or so. Cramer soured me on them . Always thought there were some good guys over there, but didn't hang around long enough to figure out who. I'm sure Cramer has some valuable info. , but sorting it out from the garbage proved impossible for me.

billyjoe

After finding links to archived columns by Gary B. Smith (until recently a columnist at TheStreet.com), I was surprised to read that he is a breakouts-only trader who based much of his practice on ideas similar to mine. (Trading breakouts means that you believe in market "inertia" that lasts more than a few minutes or couple of days.) He recently resigned his gig at TheStreet.com; don't know what his next step is. I had never subscribed to TheStreet.com.

Because he will trade long or short and doesn't restrict himself to all-time highs (my preference) or lows, he must use some technique for finding basing behavior (30 to 60 days long, usually) that he considers a setup to a breakout, either upward or downward. (Would he be scanning for a near-term volatility figure, or perhaps Bollinger Band width, that is less than some threshold? I haven't found the answer yet.) He also prefers to take a 10% profit per position and to limit the time-in-market for each trade. He sees his trading bankroll as "inventory" that he wants to turn over as quickly as possible. As Van K. Tharp teaches ("Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom"), your trading profits are a function of your win/loss rate, your profit/loss margin, and your number of trading opportunities per time period.

These columns date from 1998 and later, so today he may trade using newer criteria.

"How to Read GBS: A Primer" dated May 3, 1999 (TheStreet.com)

http://www.thestreet.com/comment/techtake/742048.html

I found there to be a lot of good, practical stuff in these columns. They describe an approach to trading that isn't all that TA-intensive to work with and therefore tends toward the "low maintenance" end of the trading styles spectrum.

Building on my posted research from a couple of day ago ...

Going into tomorrow, best bets among those stocks researched: AGYS, WIRE, QCOM. Leaning toward QCOM right now (night before) due to recently rising daily volumes and strengthening momentum indicators, unlike the other two. Hoping it acts like BRCM did so far this week.

Other alerts set, to prepare for new positions:

- Alerts high (trigger on new ATH breakout): CLZR, PDFS, RMIX, GNTX, SNA, SPSS, LMT, NOC

- Alerts low (trigger on bounce down to prev ATH, after recent fade from recent new ATH breakout): AOS, HLF, SIRF, APH


Next best runnersup: ACTG, THOR, EYE, BDX, DAKT, RHAT, THQI

[IIC]

Bruce uses a Modified CANSLIM approach...it is well suited to Intermediate Term Investors who do not want to take or don't have the time to constantly watch everything...And still make a decent ROI which should consistently beat the markets.

I don't subscribe...but I am very familiar with his methods...I'd rate his site a very good value...Plus he is a very nice guy...Doug

My investing book of the week: "The Battle for Investment Survival" (3rd ed., 1957) by G. M. Loeb, which I purchased in hardcover for $1.00 at my local library. Was originally published in 1935. Lots of nuggets in this book. He doesn't believe in diversification for an individual's account. He is also of a contrarian mind. For example:

"Except in cases of panic or near panic prices, the fact that a stock is widely held by investment trusts is not a good reason for buying, as such stocks are generally of the high-grade kind difficult to buy cheap. Since the aim is rather to buy an issue which is unpopular, the hope is, on the contrary, that while the investment companies do not hold much or any now, they will later, at a higher price, become interested and add it to their portfolios. The distinction of being the stock most frequently listed in published institutional holdings simply means not only that the price is probably high rather than low but also that there is a large number of potential sellers should the situation take a turn for the worse."

This week I ordered my copy of Stock Trader's Almanac for 2006.