Screen Statistical Analysis

[Deaddog]

(I'm Canadian) P.S. I actually trade with Questrade but I found that their screens were rather limited... or maybe I just don't know how to use them.

Hey Fellow Canuck!!

I have a small account with Questrade and I've never looked at their research tools. I took a quick look and their Bulls Eye tool might be of some value. I'll take a harder look I have time.

[mrmarket]

I ran through 5 screens on the weekend using TD Waterhouse (I'm Canadian) and most matched with the MM dump. I had to approximate the remaining 3 screens as best as I could using the tools that I had and the results were different. Is that bad? I would think not necessarily. Even with the discrepancies between dumps, if you go through the rigorous exercise that follows after to narrow down the top 5, the final results will probably have potential, even if they aren't the same top 5 that MM. Assuming that the tools being used on both sides are reliable (albeit different), would I be wrong to assume as such?

I suppose I could pick my own winners on paper and monitor the results over a long period of time and see how well my picks perform. MM isn't going to be around forever... or maybe he will be. Maybe he will be.

P.S. I actually trade with Questrade but I found that their screens were rather limited... or maybe I just don't know how to use them.

I think you are spot on. Keep up the good work and by all means let's see your picks (and write ups!).

I see a lot of smart numbers guys posting a lot here on the forums so I am throwing this idea out for conversation.

I am not trying to diminish the value of any one of the eight MM screens however I think it would be interesting to see which screen(s) produced each entry in the Top 5. Each pick will have one or more screens in which it appears.

After months and years this data could eventually provide some interesting insight as to whether hits on a particular screen or combination of screens produces more Top 5 entries and Mr Market picks. It could also be used to see if there is any correlation on MM pick success vs losses.

One potential issue I foresee is when I run my IBD screens I don't always get the same hits that Mr Market gets in his dump. Possibly since I use IBD and he uses Fidelity. e.g. South Beach Top 5 entry "CMXX.OB" did not even show up in my IBD 8 screen dump.

I ran through 5 screens on the weekend using TD Waterhouse (I'm Canadian) and most matched with the MM dump. I had to approximate the remaining 3 screens as best as I could using the tools that I had and the results were different. Is that bad? I would think not necessarily. Even with the discrepancies between dumps, if you go through the rigorous exercise that follows after to narrow down the top 5, the final results will probably have potential, even if they aren't the same top 5 that MM. Assuming that the tools being used on both sides are reliable (albeit different), would I be wrong to assume as such?

I suppose I could pick my own winners on paper and monitor the results over a long period of time and see how well my picks perform. MM isn't going to be around forever... or maybe he will be. Maybe he will be.

P.S. I actually trade with Questrade but I found that their screens were rather limited... or maybe I just don't know how to use them.

[Karel]

...

After months and years this data could eventually provide some interesting insight as to whether hits on a particular screen or combination of screens produces more Top 5 entries and Mr Market picks. It could also be used to see if there is any correlation on MM pick success vs losses.

...

I am all for this kind of stuff, not being as H U G E as His Hugeness. But count on years and several back-and-forths between bull, bear and otherwise markets. Some screens look like they are ready to pick red hot candidates in roaring bull markets, others to provide safe ones when the bears are on the loose.

Regards,

Karel

[Deaddog]

Wealth is overrated. Happiness is not.

Very true. Anyone can be happy, not everyone can be wealthy.

They say money can't buy happiness. But you can rent such a reasonable facsimile that most people can't tell the difference.

[mrmarket]

It's a great story and I know it will end with:

"And he became wealthy beyond his wildest dreams and lived happily ever after."

Wealth is overrated. Happiness is not.

[Deaddog]

I think you can access the premium tools for free during the trial. I am using a trial account and seem to be able to use the tools to create the MM screens.

There looks to be a free trial for 3 days but I'll need something I can access for a long time. I'll probably continue with eIBD for fundamentals and use stockcharts for scanning.

I'm not above stealing ideas from MR Market but would like to become independant just in case His Hugeness stops sharing.

[Deaddog]

At the end of the day..a stock trading at its high is a stock which has been "discovered" by the market. If fundamantals are very good and its valuation is not extended, its stock price should continue to climb at a rate faster than the over all market.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

It's a great story and I know it will end with:

"And he became wealthy beyond his wildest dreams and lived happily ever after."

[hhansen]

Thanks. After seeing the cost for premium tools I might have to create my own screens.

I'll see if I can't come up with something simpler that a lazy dog like myself might use.

We are looking for stocks making new highs that have excellent fundies.

Might be a bit of work but if one builds his own data base of top stocks and compares it to a list of new daily highs there should be some excellent candidates.

I think you can access the premium tools for free during the trial. I am using a trial account and seem to be able to use the tools to create the MM screens.

[mrmarket]

Thanks. After seeing the cost for premium tools I might have to create my own screens.

I'll see if I can't come up with something simpler that a lazy dog like myself might use.

We are looking for stocks making new highs that have excellent fundies.

Might be a bit of work but if one builds his own data base of top stocks and compares it to a list of new daily highs there should be some excellent candidates.

At the end of the day..a stock trading at its high is a stock which has been "discovered" by the market. If fundamantals are very good and its valuation is not extended, its stock price should continue to climb at a rate faster than the over all market.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[Deaddog]

Oh right, now I remember that it can be a pain to find the first time.
Once you login to the site:
Click on "Stock research"
You will see the Screen of the day which is MM Screen #6

Then click on the drop down for "Premium Tools"
Then select "Custom Screen Wizard"
Once there you can click "Create New Screen" and create /save the other 7 screens.

Thanks. After seeing the cost for premium tools I might have to create my own screens.

I'll see if I can't come up with something simpler that a lazy dog like myself might use.

We are looking for stocks making new highs that have excellent fundies.

Might be a bit of work but if one builds his own data base of top stocks and compares it to a list of new daily highs there should be some excellent candidates.

[hhansen]

Point me to the IBD screener please. Like I said I'm new to IBD and have found screens but don't know where to look to design custom screens.

Thanks DD

Oh right, now I remember that it can be a pain to find the first time.
Once you login to the site:
Click on "Stock research"
You will see the Screen of the day which is MM Screen #6

Then click on the drop down for "Premium Tools"
Then select "Custom Screen Wizard"
Once there you can click "Create New Screen" and create /save the other 7 screens.

[Deaddog]

MM has 8 screen definitions to create each data dump. 3 of them use IBD proprietary criteria, and the other 5 can be screened at most of the free places. Since you have access to the IBD screener then you can just do all 8 right there. I hope that helps.

Point me to the IBD screener please. Like I said I'm new to IBD and have found screens but don't know where to look to design custom screens.

Thanks DD

[hhansen]

Of my last 22 picks, only 2 are losing money. So...I guess it really doesn't matter...I always win!!! I am HUGE!!!

Ohrioght. I forgot about that part.

[hhansen]

I just started a trial subscription with IBD. You mentioned you were using 8 different screens. Is there a screening tool I'm missing?

MM has 8 screen definitions to create each data dump. 3 of them use IBD proprietary criteria, and the other 5 can be screened at most of the free places. Since you have access to the IBD screener then you can just do all 8 right there. I hope that helps.