Twenty Thirteen Two Baggers

[mimo_100]

Thank you, Mimo, for making the effort to run the contest. I have four biotech type stocks I was interested in when we began the contest. So far CADX, the one I left out altogether, is doing the best. ATEC, my conditional pick, is next best. The two I picked for the contest are both solidly underwater. All of which confirms what I have seen before, that when it comes to comparing stocks side by side I am missing something.

I believe the prices of stocks rise when there is more buying than selling. And prices go down when there is more selling. VOLUME is one big big key. So we are constantly monitoring deltas in price and volume in the past.

As Riverbabe has in her signature,

"When money flows in, the market goes up. When money flows out, the market goes down." Jesse Livermore

http://www.jesse-livermore.com/

What's so interesting
About Jesse Livermore?
Time Magazine described Jesse Livermore as the most fabulous living U.S. stock trader.

His progress from office boy to Wall Street legend - his trading lessons - his triumphs and disasters - is probably the most fascinating of any of Wall Street's stories.

Some more of his guidance:

Don't become an involuntary investor by holding onto stocks whose price has fallen.
A stock is never too high to buy and never too low to short.
Markets are never wrong - opinions often are.
The highest profits are made in trades that show a profit right from the start.
No trading rules will deliver a profit 100 percent of the time.

[Louetta]

As of the market close 5/1/2013.

noshadyldy takes over the lead. Two in the top 5 - WOW!

 player           stock      long/    begin        gain/
 name           symbol      short    price    current    loss
noshadyldy    ONVO        3.25    4.35    1.1    33.85%
stocks54    P        11.02    14.25    3.23    29.31%
      mimo    VG        2.5    2.92    0.42    16.80%
Lucavia123    NCT        9.76    11.25    1.49    15.27%
noshadyldy    GRPN        5.19    5.98    0.79    15.22%
      mimo    SIRI        3.16    3.355    0.195    6.17%
   Louetta    ATEC*        1.72    1.79    0.07    4.07%
Lucavia123    STSA        20.98    20.89    -0.09    -0.43%
     billy    ELLI        25.26    23.8    -1.46    -5.78%
  Phoenix7    DDD        40.23    37.67    -2.56    -6.36%
   Louetta    CORT        1.9    1.7    -0.2    -10.53%
     River    VRNG        3.34    2.93    -0.41    -12.28%
     River    AMRN        8.37    7.2    -1.17    -13.98%
   Louetta    ATRS        4.29    3.65    -0.64    -14.92%
  mrmarket    HOV        6.49    5.35    -1.14    -17.57%
  mrmarket    MTLK**        0.99    0.8101    -0.1799    -18.17%
     billy    SHLD    SHORT    41.301    50.04    -8.739    -21.16%
  Phoenix7    AEZS        2.57    1.79    -0.78    -30.35%
stocks54    ZIOP        4.49    1.6    -2.89    -64.37%

*Conditional pick - I kept it around just for fun
**Rule Violation - I kept it around just for fun

Thank you, Mimo, for making the effort to run the contest. I have four biotech type stocks I was interested in when we began the contest. So far CADX, the one I left out altogether, is doing the best. ATEC, my conditional pick, is next best. The two I picked for the contest are both solidly underwater. All of which confirms what I have seen before, that when it comes to comparing stocks side by side I am missing something.

[mimo_100]

As of the market close 5/1/2013.

noshadyldy takes over the lead. Two in the top 5 - WOW!

 player       	stock	  long/	begin		gain/
 name	       symbol	  short	price	current	loss
noshadyldy	ONVO		3.25	4.35	1.1	33.85%
stocks54	P		11.02	14.25	3.23	29.31%
      mimo	VG		2.5	2.92	0.42	16.80%
Lucavia123	NCT		9.76	11.25	1.49	15.27%
noshadyldy	GRPN		5.19	5.98	0.79	15.22%
      mimo	SIRI		3.16	3.355	0.195	6.17%
   Louetta	ATEC*		1.72	1.79	0.07	4.07%
Lucavia123	STSA		20.98	20.89	-0.09	-0.43%
     billy	ELLI		25.26	23.8	-1.46	-5.78%
  Phoenix7	DDD		40.23	37.67	-2.56	-6.36%
   Louetta	CORT		1.9	1.7	-0.2	-10.53%
     River	VRNG		3.34	2.93	-0.41	-12.28%
     River	AMRN		8.37	7.2	-1.17	-13.98%
   Louetta	ATRS		4.29	3.65	-0.64	-14.92%
  mrmarket	HOV		6.49	5.35	-1.14	-17.57%
  mrmarket	MTLK**		0.99	0.8101	-0.1799	-18.17%
     billy	SHLD	SHORT	41.301	50.04	-8.739	-21.16%
  Phoenix7	AEZS		2.57	1.79	-0.78	-30.35%
stocks54	ZIOP		4.49	1.6	-2.89	-64.37%

*Conditional pick - I kept it around just for fun
**Rule Violation - I kept it around just for fun

[mimo_100]

stocks54 takes over the lead and the basement- louetta's ATEC "conditional" is a winner. DDD 3D printing definitely out of favor now.

 player       	stock	  long/	begin		gain/
 name	       symbol	  short	price	current	loss
  stocks54	P		11.02	14.16	3.14	28.49%
   Louetta	ATEC*		1.72	2.11	0.39	22.67%
      mimo	VG		2.42	2.89	0.47	19.42%
Lucavia123	NCT		9.76	11.17	1.41	14.45%
noshadyldy	GRPN		5.35	6.12	0.77	14.39%
noshadyldy	ONVO		3.25	3.68	0.43	13.23%
Lucavia123	STSA		20.74	21.69	0.95	4.58%
   Louetta	CORT		1.97	2	0.03	1.52%
      mimo	SIRI		3.16	3.08	-0.08	-2.53%
     billy	ELLI		25.72	24.05	-1.67	-6.49%
     River	VRNG		3.44	3.17	-0.27	-7.85%
  mrmarket	HOV		6.40	5.77	-0.63	-9.84%
     River	AMRN		8.62	7.41	-1.21	-14.04%
   Louetta	ATRS		4.25	3.58	-0.67	-15.76%
  mrmarket	MTLK**		0.99	0.82	-0.17	-17.17%
     billy	SHLD	SHORT	40.95	49.97	-9.02	-22.03%
  Phoenix7	AEZS		2.74	1.88	-0.86	-31.39%
  Phoenix7	DDD		60.35	32.24	-28.11	-46.58%
  stocks54	ZIOP		4.49	1.83	-2.66	-59.24%

*Conditional pick - I kept it around just for fun
**Rule Violation - I kept it around just for fun

[mimo_100]

I updated the prices on DDD for the 3 for 2 split.

[mimo_100]

shadylady still in the lead, her GRPN advancing fast

largest moves down from 1/27 - CORT, DDD, MTLK**
largest moves up from 1/27 - ZIOP (stocks54), GRPN (noshadyldy)

I will adjust the price for DDD 3 for 2 split next week.

 player       	stock	  long/	begin		gain/
 name	       symbol	  short	price	current	loss
noshadyldy	ONVO		3.25	4.06	0.81	24.92%
Lucavia123	NCT		9.76	10.86	1.10	11.27%
stocks54	P		11.02	12.11	1.09	9.89%
      mimo	VG		2.42	2.62	0.20	8.26%
noshadyldy	GRPN		5.35	5.72	0.37	6.92%
Lucavia123	STSA		20.74	22.09	1.35	6.51%
stocks54	ZIOP		4.49	4.5	0.01	0.22%
   Louetta	ATEC*		1.72	1.72	0.00	0.00%
      mimo	SIRI		3.16	3.05	-0.11	-3.48%
     River	AMRN		8.62	8.24	-0.38	-4.41%
  Phoenix7	DDD		40.23	37.97	-2.26	-5.62%
  Phoenix7	AEZS		2.74	2.58	-0.16	-5.84%
     River	VRNG		3.44	3.2	-0.24	-6.98%
  mrmarket	MTLK**		0.99	0.92	-0.07	-7.07%
   Louetta	CORT		1.97	1.81	-0.16	-8.12%
  mrmarket	HOV		6.40	5.45	-0.95	-14.84%
     billy	SHLD	SHORT	40.95	47.19	-6.24	-15.24%
   Louetta	ATRS		4.25	3.46	-0.79	-18.59%
     billy	ELLI		25.72	19.53	-6.19	-24.07%

*Conditional pick - I kept it around just for fun
**Rule Violation - I kept it around just for fun

[riverbabe]

River, Do you know how they screen the bloggers? Some of these people are dangerous.

-------------billy

There are some guidelines. I posted a comment there once and it had to be screened by the editors prior to appearing. A few pages of "rules": http://seekingalpha.com/page/editorial_principles Sounds pretty loose to me.

[billyjoe]

River, Do you know how they screen the bloggers? Some of these people are dangerous.

-------------billy

[riverbabe]

More on SA

FWIW: There are both bashers and boosters on Seeking Alpha. It doesn't take long to distinguish between them and the true blue intelligencia who tell it like it is and are proven to be trustworthy. 'Ya just gotta read between the lines (and the bios) for the possible ulterior motives. I have a healthy skepticism of it all, but find it helpful anyway. Especially read the Comments on the articles and all becomes quite clear quite quickly.

The latest SA post on VRNG by "Modernist" who is a VRNG basher, has the most honest "Additional Disclosure" I have ever beheld! (Buyer beware) "Additional disclosure: The disclosures made are minimal and readers should assume writers have conflicts of some sort." WOW

[noshadyldy]

I tried to find a price on these warrants. At this price, the warrants act like a option, having a certain intrinsic value. I am not sure how to analyse this. If the warrants were exercised, the company would use existing treasury stock to meet the exercise, and would also receive, as noted, $24 million.

I am not sure what effect this would have on the price of the stock, do you?

I might be describing it wrong. What this is is an agreement with investors to buy millions of shares at 80cents. The dilution will cause it to crash like it did before. Last summer (?) Seeking alpha pumped it like mad right before the first set of those warrants were exercised. Take a look at the chart. It went from over $10 to under $2.00. The second wave of warrants are very soon to be available for use. I am out of this until the dust settles.

[mimo_100]

In Seeking Alpha article by D. Mero end of October, 2012.

On its balance sheet, ONVO includes a "warrant liability" that is valued at $80.5 million. This non-cash liability is from the 24.11 million warrants the company issued as part of a capital raise earlier on. Not to be confused, the liability is similar to an IOU only if the issued warrants are exercised. However, these warrants are callable if the company's stock trades over $2.50/share for 20 consecutive days. In this case, investors have the option to exercise their warrant and convert it to a common share of the company at a price of $1.00. If presented with the opportunity, exercising the option would prove to be beneficial for both Organovo and warrant holders. The company would receive $24.11 million in gross proceeds ($1/warrant * 24.11M warrants), while also erasing its warrant liability, which would be converted into equity.



This next piece was taken from an article by same author TODAY. Now that these warrants are due to be cashed in any day now, he makes it sound a bit different. He glazes right over the fact that the price is going to tank when those warrants holders cash out at 80 cents a share.

As the stock price continues to trade over $2.50, investors should keep an eye out for the announcement of remaining outstanding warrants (effects of exercised warrants explained here). Assuming the stock does not see a rapid decline, management should be able to file the warrant call by early February, falling within the next week. Such a scenario would allow management to inquire about up-listing without any evident issues and reward investors with a possible appearance on the NASDAQ CM exchange by Q3 2013.

I tried to find a price on these warrants. At this price, the warrants act like a option, having a certain intrinsic value. I am not sure how to analyse this. If the warrants were exercised, the company would use existing treasury stock to meet the exercise, and would also receive, as noted, $24 million.

I am not sure what effect this would have on the price of the stock, do you?

[noshadyldy]

ONVO Warrants hit next week!!!!

In Seeking Alpha article by D. Mero end of October, 2012.

On its balance sheet, ONVO includes a "warrant liability" that is valued at $80.5 million. This non-cash liability is from the 24.11 million warrants the company issued as part of a capital raise earlier on. Not to be confused, the liability is similar to an IOU only if the issued warrants are exercised. However, these warrants are callable if the company's stock trades over $2.50/share for 20 consecutive days. In this case, investors have the option to exercise their warrant and convert it to a common share of the company at a price of $1.00. If presented with the opportunity, exercising the option would prove to be beneficial for both Organovo and warrant holders. The company would receive $24.11 million in gross proceeds ($1/warrant * 24.11M warrants), while also erasing its warrant liability, which would be converted into equity.

This next piece was taken from an article by same author TODAY. Now that these warrants are due to be cashed in any day now, he makes it sound a bit different. He glazes right over the fact that the price is going to tank when those warrants holders cash out at 80 cents a share.

As the stock price continues to trade over $2.50, investors should keep an eye out for the announcement of remaining outstanding warrants (effects of exercised warrants explained here). Assuming the stock does not see a rapid decline, management should be able to file the warrant call by early February, falling within the next week. Such a scenario would allow management to inquire about up-listing without any evident issues and reward investors with a possible appearance on the NASDAQ CM exchange by Q3 2013.

[billyjoe]

We could put a 15% stop loss in - what do you think?

Mimo, No, I could be eliminated in a week !

------------------billy

[mimo_100]

Mimo, I'm glad we can'tget stopped out. Am confident good things will happen this year for ELLI and bad things for SHLD.

-------------------billy

We could put a 15% stop loss in - what do you think?

[billyjoe]

Mimo, I'm glad we can'tget stopped out. Am confident good things will happen this year for ELLI and bad things for SHLD.

-------------------billy