Portfolio of the Week

[skiracer]

Lye, I got to hand it to you, you were spot on with that call. ALDA came tumblin' down like a house of cards after today's earnings report. So here is what their rev. & earnings history looks like with the addition of today's numbers:

Will she bounce? Or will she continue to burn? Somebody can make some money here ... but, uh, in which direction?

Rob,
It drops $8.22 in the after hours on what was a terrible earnings report. I can't see what could possibly generate any interest to the upside, but stranger things have happened. Low volume stocks. It doesn't take much volume to swing them either way but I always felt that they fall much faster than they go up. This qtr. 06 vs same qtr. 05 was a comparible disaster. If it were my play I would let it drift a little higher an if it does I would short it. That's a bear flag formation happening and very similar to UFPI on Runner's thread. Wonder what it will open at tomorrow?

[skiracer]

Talk about Sweet Little Sixteen ... ol' Chuck Berry never saw a sixteen lookin' as sweet as that 16% on Skiracer's gain column! How far you figgerin' on ridin' that BVX, Ski? Looks like there could be some tough moguls and ice patches up ahead!

Rob,
There are a couple of ways that I'm looking at this one. Here is a chart of the daily with a EW count. I think that the 5 still has a bit to go to about $9.50/10 area. I think it will hit that before a pullback. Also good news today that their newest little dodad, a process to remove sutures, has been approved by the FDA and that they are going to bring it out to market this September.


The 2nd chart is of the weekly. I'm seeing the wave count as near the top of a 3. In this case the chances of a pullback, or a 4th wave down, is very good and could happen tomorrow or the next day. I like the strength of the FDA approval on that suture to drive it to the $10 range before it pulls back but I'm up pretty good with the trade from my entry at this time an I'll probably place a stop somewhere around $8.50 in the morning to protect the gains to date. I think it stands a great chance to go to $12/15 before it's done with this uptrend. I would exit or get stopped out at $8.50 and re-enter after the pullback happens. Isn't that weekly a beautiful chart. If you look close between Feb. 05 and Nov. 05 it made a nice base and handle and took it's time building momentum before breaking out. I've been in an out twice from $3.50 range for short swing trades. From this point I would wait for the 4th wave down before thinking about any entry. If that takes it back down to around $7 / 7.50 range that would be a nice entry again.

[IIC]

Whatever the standings...LYE had a one day start on ALLI vs. what I was lookin' at...Nice call LYE...Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

Lye, I got to hand it to you, you were spot on with that call. ALDA came tumblin' down like a house of cards after today's earnings report.

Thanks Rockin'Rob.... And thanks for supper tonight dude!, You are HUUUUGE!!!!.... Always nice for the Mrs Lye and me to get together with you and your lovely wife for a nice meal and fellowship.... We shall do it again soon and next time I'll treat.

Whatever the standings...LYE had a one day start on ALLI vs. what I was lookin' at...Nice call LYE...Doug(IIC)

Thanks Doug.... btw, I own the stock. If anyone likes it you should be able to buy it under $7.80 if you are patient (gapped up today on not-so-great volume) ALLI reports earnings on 08/03/06.... Keep an eye on it.

[IIC]

Thanks Rockin'Rob.... And thanks for supper tonight dude!, You are HUUUUGE!!!!.... Always nice for the Mrs Lye and me to get together with you and your lovely wife for a nice meal and fellowship.... We shall do it again soon and next time I'll treat.


Thanks Doug.... btw, I own the stock. If anyone likes it you should be able to buy it under $7.80 if you are patient (gapped up today on not-so-great volume) ALLI reports earnings on 08/03/06.... Keep an eye on it.

Well...I have no problem admitting that I didn't see it coming...Nice eye and good luck on it...Doug(IIC)

[peanuts]

The Flaming Brain, Photon, who holds PMTI in a long position should see a nice gain today with record earnings being announced for the company.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060727/neth004.html?.v=63

This company has also made my IBD and CANSLIM screen

[Rob]

Thanks Rockin'Rob.... And thanks for supper tonight dude!, You are HUUUUGE!!!!.... Always nice for the Mrs Lye and me to get together with you and your lovely wife for a nice meal and fellowship.... We shall do it again soon and next time I'll treat.

Cool, Daddy-o. Sorry the guacamole wasn't up to snuff, but I wouldn't know, 'cause I've never liked guacamole anyway, even when it's "good."

[peanuts]

Dear Mr. Rob, Sir:

I don't think EGN has anything left in it for the week. I want to sell it and buy ALDA in hopes for a price pop from earnings announcement today. Thank you

This may go down in history as the single most stupid thing I have ever written.... ALDA down 40+% today!!!! So much for catching DMK.

I day traded ALDA this morning. I watched it closely, and on the first tick up, I bought market order 500 shares- got them at 15.14, and sold at the first tick down at 16.06... about 3 minutes, $460... that was even more fun than my NGA short yesterday... but now I have 2/5 round trips... 3 more and my account is frozen for a while.

edit, for any doubters here's a screen shot from my ameritrade account:

[jiesen]

POTW Weeks 17-29 Cumulative Results

Here are the K-data (based on previous 13 weeks of POTW) results for weeks 17-29. It's ranked by "special K", or Cumulative Gain (%) / Weeks played.



Weeks 5-17 (and 3-15)
Weeks 7-19
Weeks 9-21
Weeks 11-23
Weeks 13-25
Weeks 15-27

Nice job, Spike!

[billyjoe]

Rob,
Cover my NTRI short and I'm out. Gotta get that % up. Thanks

-------------billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Lye, I got to hand it to you, you were spot on with that call. ALDA came tumblin' down like a house of cards after today's earnings report. So here is what their rev. & earnings history looks like with the addition of today's numbers:

Will she bounce? Or will she continue to burn? Somebody can make some money here ... but, uh, in which direction?

ALDA has a nice gap @ $6 that might fill in due time....

Rob, I've seen stocks with a P/E of 2 crash.... and crash.... and crash. In 1997 I traded a company called National Steel (ticker symbol at the time was NS) It had a P/E of around 4. I bought it and held it till it's P/E was around 2.... and I finally sold it for a huge loss.... After I sold, NS kept crashing.... and then it reported some really screwed up numbers and the P/E all of a sudden was about 50!.... It was bought out eventually for about 10% of the price where I first bought it....

Once a stock is out of favor and the big boys dump, it's mighty hard for it to come back fast.... and most likely the "dump" is telling you there are troubles under the surface that "we" can't see just yet.

btw.... ALDA hit it's 61.8% retracement and stopped pronto.... Here's a chart of ALDA showing how Fibonacci Retracements are a reliable indicator to target a stop point when a stock takes such a tumble as ALDA has.

[Rob]

Allion Healthcare (ALLI)

. . . Maybe Rockin'Rob can run one of those special earnings and sales growth charts for us here?

You mean like this?

ALLI's relatively short history suggests to beware of EPS in quarters 2 and 4. But again, that is based on a brief history only.

[Lyehopper]

You mean like this?

ALLI's relatively short history suggests to beware of EPS in quarters 2 and 4. But again, that is based on a brief history only.

Thanks Rob! You are HUUUGE!!!!

[Rob]

Week 30 (4), Day 4

I've been working outside in the heat today. I'm dog tired, and my brain is only about half awake, so forgive me for not having a lot to say right now.

Kong is still in the lead, although with a slightly tamer score. Ski's Bovie gave back some today, yet is still looking quite healthy with 10%. And Billyjoe jumps to third with a cover on his NTRI.

Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday

[IIC]

out BRLI.......in WITS...IIC