Jiesen tries to take over the world

[jiesen]

selling the market today

I'm moving about a 2% position out of mutual funds into bonds today. I believe from this point, a 5% return is likely to do better than the overall market- at least in the short run. We could easily see another large correction (I'm pretty sure that one will occur before the NAS gets to 2500), and if we do see a 10% correction this year, I'll put the money back to work again. Until then, I'll be happy with my 5% on this chunk of change.

[jiesen]

Bought USG today

Took a 2% position in USG at 91.1- saw Spike take it long in the POTW. The asbestos settlement should keep this running for at least a couple more days, so I figure I'll try to use Spike's TA to scalp a few bucks off of the run. Of course the minute I buy it, I see he's flipped over to the short side. oh well! the news still says this stock goes up this week. But I won't argue with the chart either on this one, and if it drops to 85 I'm out.

[spikefader]

USG man, what a pop today huh. That was Creme of the Crop Superstock ya know - just closed it Friday and missed that 20% pop today lol

I saw it makes a c long and then a little triangle breakout and it looked set to continue booming on the daily and weeklies. I actually got very aggressive with my long entry and got caught in a bulltrap Doh! Then the 'c' failure and my -4% stop, so I figured shoo, that ain't a good sign - so did the old spikefade play looking for intraday pivot of 79.65. Not sure if I'll close it there or not yet, but that'll give me green POTW which I need lol

Good luck with it long dude. If you're lookin' to add, I'd suggest 86.00 price support, then 79.65, then yesterday's low. Under there, I wouldn't be holding a long for it myself.

[jiesen]

thanks for the TA input, Spike! And for bringing this to my attention in the first place. Win or lose on this one, I'm going to learn something- that's for sure.

[jiesen]

sold USG for a 3.6% gain

just sold at 94.4. Was hoping to get a good $5 or $6 out of it by the end of the week, but with $3 profit already in hand, why risk holding it overnight if I don't have to? I'll be happy with this, and not whine tomorrow when it's over $100.

Thanks again, Spike. I'm going to ponder this trade tonight to figure out exactly what was going through my head when I did it...

[jiesen]

how to REALLY make some money

An interesting tidbit about Buffett and USG:

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7080974&tid=brka&sid=7080974&mid=314492

This a.m. USG announces it has reached settlements on its asbestos issues with everybody involved and will be out of bankrupcy soon. Berkshire gets a $100M fee for "backstopping" USG's $1.8B "rights offering." BRK's 6.5M shares of USG are also up $9/share to $89/sh so far in pre-market. Buffett bought USG for ~$15/sh a few years ago. So it's now worth close to $600M. Just your typical six-bagger.

As the usual amazing Buffett twist, WEB bought his entire position in USG for about $100M. Now, a few years later, Berkshire gets a $100M FEE from USG this morning for backstopping its rights offering.

[ParkTwain]

Buffett has behaved as an "insider" type investor (a "control investor" a la Marty Whitman's books) since the early 1960s, I believe. He gets access to information inside the target company that the typical "outside passive minority investor," or OPMI (a la Marty Whitman's books), like you and me doesn't have access to. (That's why I've felt for some time that the financial journalists are doing the individual investor a great disservice by encouraging "copying" Buffett's investing modus operandi.) He had all these terms arranged at the time of his investment in USG. He was buying "damaged goods" and knew how to make arrangements that made for a high probability of a successful transition of the business to become "worthful goods."

Here is an EXCELLENT synopsis of Whitman's book "Value Investing: A Balanced Approach," including why it's just great <cough> to be an OPMI:

https://www.traderslibrary.net/moreinfo.asp?item=10491&SID=OZDEQTFXPOUE70BC279778536725DBDE&excerpt=yes&lc=cart

(For best results, print this article in landscape orientation.)

This synopsis is much easier to read than the book itself. Very high-caliber stuff. Whitman is not the greatest writer, but his ideas and knowledge are first rate and world class. Any serious investor should read everything ever written by Martin J. Whitman, one of the supreme value investors of all time. Anyone can let him do most of the work by placing funds in one of the Third Avenue Funds (http://www.thirdavenuefunds.com/taf/index.html).

[jiesen]

great link, there, PT! I'm replying so briefly only because I'm too busy reading this synopsis...

[jiesen]

Sold &lt;1% XING position at 7.6

I'm down to about a 1.5% position in XING now. Happy to get 7.6 for this sale. I'm planning to put this into BBD, when it looks too cheap to pass up.

[New-born baby]

The Genius

I'm down to about a 1.5% position in XING now. Happy to get 7.6 for this sale. I'm planning to put this into BBD, when it looks too cheap to pass up.

Calling Jiesen, the Fundamental Analysis Genius. Calling Jiesen: the Fundamental Analysis genius . . .

Okay, tell me why I should buy BBD--and when. Sure, MM had a great write up. Anything you could add?
Thank you!

[jiesen]

Calling Jiesen, the Fundamental Analysis Genius. Calling Jiesen: the Fundamental Analysis genius . . .

Okay, tell me why I should buy BBD--and when. Sure, MM had a great write up. Anything you could add?
Thank you!

Great questions, NBB! You'll really make me do my homework on this one. I like that. And yes, $$MM's writeup was fantastic. In fact it covered everything I knew and loved about BBD plus much more. So I'm digging deeper tonight to find out more about this one before I add to my position.

I'm finding a lot of good info summarized in their latest 4Q05 Conference Call:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060222/spw099.html?.v=2

So far, I haven't been able to get the sound working (I'll try again from a different computer later) but the charts and figures in the presentation speak pretty much for themselves. Check it out.

With a book value around $10 and earnings of $2.5 last year rising to $3 this year, there's a very hard floor to support the stock price in case the market decides to dump it into the basement. If they continue to execute like they have been (and I expect they will) they will be increasing the BV by 25%-30% per year. Growth in the earnings should continue to be rewared by an expanding P/E multiple from the current 14, and as time goes on, the floor of BV will continue the steady march up, eventually forcing the stock price higher, just by the value of the assests behind the company.

Now as for your question about when to buy, I'd say if you don't own this stock, now is as good a time as any to buy it. By the fact that it's passed $$MM's screen into the top 5, it's likely to be one of the best stocks that you can own right now- and of these 5, it looks to be the safest, most likely stock to hit the 15% target. By virtue of its being a large bank, the numbers are very easy to examine and compare to other banks, and the plans are drawn out clearly enough for maximum comfort with this investment.

If you've got some already now, like I do, then putting a target for a second or even third position in the $30-35 range may be a good idea, just in case the market gives us a really great deal on this stock. I'll probably pick up another third to half of my position somewhere in that range if it gets down that low, though I'm not holding my breath for that- and may just add some more right here around $37-38. It'll depend somewhat on how much I like what I read about the business plan, and where I see this company headed. So far, I'm liking what I see very much.

[New-born baby]

Thanks, Genius

Jiesen, you are a genius! Thank you so much.

I have not entered this stock just yet. The reason for that:
Chart did not say "enter now."

Here's the daily chart. What is now forming is a head and shoulders top--or maybe not. You see, what is required is that BBD break the pink neckline in order for it to be a head and shoulders top. That neckline coincides with a support level--if support holds it is a beautiful buying opportunity. But the support level is pretty thin right there--weak support. HHmmmm. If you buy here, you must put the stops in here because there is no option chain to save you. I'd say support holds for one hammer stroke for sure; maybe twice. She cannot be hammered three times and hold. The chart formation makes me wonder if some insider knows things are not right inside the numbers. Your bullish writeups and this chart don't agree. Sure, it could be some Brazilian drug lord taking his cash out in order to expand inventory . . . but we will have to wait and see. What we need is a volume jump off of support.
So if you want to add to your position, look for volume at the neckline. If the neck breaks, we could see $28-30.

[jiesen]

Thanks, NBB. Despite your insistence to the contrary, XING is sure making me feel like a moron today... I could have probably sold today for 10% more at the 52-wk high!

Oh well, them's the breaks. At least I'm still holding onto another piece of it.

[jiesen]

Jiesen, you are a genius! Thank you so much.

I have not entered this stock just yet. The reason for that:
Chart did not say "enter now."

Here's the daily chart. What is now forming is a head and shoulders top--or maybe not. You see, what is required is that BBD break the pink neckline in order for it to be a head and shoulders top. That neckline coincides with a support level--if support holds it is a beautiful buying opportunity. But the support level is pretty thin right there--weak support. HHmmmm. If you buy here, you must put the stops in here because there is no option chain to save you. I'd say support holds for one hammer stroke for sure; maybe twice. She cannot be hammered three times and hold. The chart formation makes me wonder if some insider knows things are not right inside the numbers. Your bullish writeups and this chart don't agree. Sure, it could be some Brazilian drug lord taking his cash out in order to expand inventory . . . but we will have to wait and see. What we need is a volume jump off of support.
So if you want to add to your position, look for volume at the neckline. If the neck breaks, we could see $28-30.

Ok, well let's see if we get a lucky triple-hammer neck-break, so I can load the boat at $30! That'll more than make up for my poorly-timed exit from XING, with the extra 33% profit in the end.

[Rob]

TA on BBD

Here's the daily chart. What is now forming is a head and shoulders top--or maybe not. You see, what is required is that BBD break the pink neckline in order for it to be a head and shoulders top. That neckline coincides with a support level--if support holds it is a beautiful buying opportunity. But the support level is pretty thin right there--weak support.

Newborn, allow me to cross-examine your analysis please. First, I know only a little about technical analysis, and so I'm in no way attempting to make anyone think I'm some T/A guru. While I do like looking at charts and patterns and trying to determine what recent price and volume trends are saying—if they're saying anything—my take is colored almost exclusively by what my own wits and intuition tell me, because I've done only marginal reading on the subject.

So now to my question. In this chart you point out on the price-by-volume overlay that there is very little volume at the neck line and reason that this indicates little support at that level. Now my own instinct is saying to me: The reason there is so little volume there is because the price shot right past it so fast there was hardly any time to accumulate a lot of volume there. But look at all the volume above that level! How can you discount all that buy interest?

If you look at a 2-year daily on BBD, there was a clear head-and-shoulders pattern that formed between ealry Feb. and late March of '05, and it proceeded to blow it out of the water! Looking at that same chart, though, look at how the stock repeatedly finds support at the 50-day SMA. To me that support at the 50-day is pretty hard to ignore. As Bill O'Reilly likes to say, "Am I wrong?"