Jiesen tries to take over the world

[New-born baby]

I apologize

Newborn, allow me to cross-examine your analysis please. First, I know only a little about technical analysis, and so I'm in no way attempting to make anyone think I'm some T/A guru. While I do like looking at charts and patterns and trying to determine what recent price and volume trends are saying—if they're saying anything—my take is colored almost exclusively by what my own wits and intuition tell me, because I've done only marginal reading on the subject.

So now to my question. In this chart you point out on the price-by-volume overlay that there is very little volume at the neck line and reason that this indicates little support at that level. Now my own instinct is saying to me: The reason there is so little volume there is because the price shot right past it so fast there was hardly any time to accumulate a lot of volume there. But look at all the volume above that level! How can you discount all that buy interest?

If you look at a 2-year daily on BBD, there was a clear head-and-shoulders pattern that formed between ealry Feb. and late March of '05, and it proceeded to blow it out of the water! Looking at that same chart, though, look at how the stock repeatedly finds support at the 50-day SMA. To me that support at the 50-day is pretty hard to ignore. As Bill O'Reilly likes to say, "Am I wrong?"

Rob,
I completely missed your post! I apologize for this. I in no way meant to ignore you.

Back to price by volume: support is where people have purchased the stock. When the price rises past the purchase point, and then retraces to that same point of purchase, people often add to their positions right there. Perhaps they had bought at $20, sold at $25, and now that the stock has retraced to $20, they buy it again. Now if the price by volume is thin, that shows that the support at that price level is thin, too. And if a stock is swamped with sellers, there are few buyers at this level. Thus the stock can fall through that price area rather quickly.

[jiesen]

sold MSFT

I exited my MSFT position today for about what I paid minus dividends received over the couple years I've held it, but I sold it to my wife, so there's no transaction cost.

I needed funds for the bonus pick, and my wife wanted to buy what I wanted to sell, so why not?

I'm still bullish on MSFT long-term though, I'll just buy the shares again on the open market in 4-6 weeks, but 15-20% more of them.

[IIC]

Hey Spike...Could you please explain that again in one sentence or less?...IIC

[New-born baby]

Msft

I looked that chart over today. I have to say that is quite a long tail upstairs. It dropped from $25 to close at $23.50 or so. That's a big move for this stock. On the positive side, the RSI is so oversold that the chart almost has hit zero. the STOs suggest that you could enter here. Sooner or later Gates has to run out of sellers, I would think. And believe it or not the PnF thinks this stock has $39 potential. (That thing lies from time to time ). Negatively I do not see a lot of growth potential in this stock. Jiesen knows what he is doing, so I will not criticize, but it is not a stock a want at this time.

[jiesen]

I don't doubt that MSFT will be at $39 sometime in the future, but I think it'll take awhile for the market to get over the major disappointment with the recent guidance revision. I believe I'll still be able to get it in the $20's for several months to come... but not forever. I could be wrong, and I'd hate to have lost these shares to the open market, but if my wife makes money off of my mistake, I've no problem with it.

[jiesen]

sold SSRI at 24

got out of my SSRI position (~2%) today at 24.0. Roughly doubled my money in this one over about 2 years. I hear Buffett's no longer in silver, so I guess it's probably not the value it used to be a few bucks ago.

[jiesen]

bought MFLX for 50!

picked up another 1% of MFLX at 50.0 in AH today. don't know why the stock should drop $9 on this earnings report....

[Lyehopper]

picked up another 1% of MFLX at 50.0 in AH today. don't know why the stock should drop $9 on this earnings report....

woah!.... Join the crowd dude. I had PARL crap out on me today too.

[New-born baby]

Whoa!

picked up another 1% of MFLX at 50.0 in AH today. don't know why the stock should drop $9 on this earnings report....

Who knows? You'll probably find out in a few days, but it actually fell $9.96. Dow Theory says you can add another $10 onto that for the bottom. Check out the option chain and sell a few $55 calls. If I recall, you bought the first load at $60, and now $50, so you have $55 in it. Most likely she dips down into the $30's, so a little extra income might make you feel a little better until she recovers.

this isn't the only stock where the news was good and the selling was strong. CCJ split 2:1, and when that news came out, $15 was lopped off of the price. It split at $70 ($35 per), and now had become about a $45 stock. Still don't know why the selloff on such good news.

[Lyehopper]

picked up another 1% of MFLX at 50.0 in AH today. don't know why the stock should drop $9 on this earnings report....

Nice read there "J"....

[jiesen]

thanks, Lye! we'll see how it plays out...

[New-born baby]

Nice read there "J"....

First you say you like the charts, and you are going to start believing them. Then you say this. Tisk, tisk.

[jiesen]

bought MFLX (again) at 42.8

added 1% more to my MFLX position (now at 5% total). The price just keeps getting better and better! This is all I'll add, though, unless we do see Spike's $21 target someday...

Nothing has changed fundamentally, since the merger was announced, and I don't the market for Razrs will disappear so fast that this drop could be justified. MFLX is still a HUGE buy imo.

[jiesen]

I just finished my first (and likely only) marathon today (~4:25) so I'll stop being as busy and stressed out as I have been lately, and it'll hopefully leave me a lot more time for analyzing, trading, and all that good stuff. Ok, now let's make some money, shall we?

[peanuts]

I just finished my first (and likely only) marathon today (~4:25) so I'll stop being as busy and stressed out as I have been lately, and it'll hopefully leave me a lot more time for analyzing, trading, and all that good stuff. Ok, now let's make some money, shall we?

WOW!!! congrats... have a seat and check out some stocks