Jiesen tries to take over the world

[New-born baby]

Bear Flag

So does today's NGPS close on an uptick mean it's now going to $40? Or do you wait until we're at $35 again to make that call?

(not trying to knock your TA, just hoping to spark up some more analysis from the gang)

Jiesen,
From a Dow Theory perspective, NGPS is working on a bear flag on pathetically low volume (the lower the volume, the faster the fall).
She's in the same category as KBH. They are headed South (IMO).

I thought that $6 drop in one day ought to, perhaps, put the fear of God in you when it comes to buying NGPS. But you are the best bottom fisher I have ever seen, so I defer to your knowledge.

Best to ya, Jiesen & Webs.

[IIC]

Well I don't have a clear picture on this one. In fact Most stocks have been difficult to read latley. I wonder why. One day market up and the next down, go figure. I’m Bullish on NGPS as long as the 200dma holding on the daily. Not sure where you entered but I like NGPS above 25.00 for now. Bet this really helped....lol

You are right...MOST have been difficult to read lately...that is a sign of a bad overall market...Doug(IIC)

[New-born baby]

You are right...MOST have been difficult to read lately...that is a sign of a bad overall market...Doug(IIC)

Did you note that the VIX was rising, but the VOX was falling? That means that the S&P 100 was falling (money leaving) while the S&P 500 is rising (money flowing in). Such a mixed signal suggests high volatility in the next few days--perhaps tomorrow on option expiration day.

[New-born baby]

Cashmaker's latest post

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?

[jiesen]

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?

I think it already tanked, and 26 was a great time to buy. 30 is less attractive to me, and if I were looking to buy, I'd probably wait for a discount on a negative verdict, but I wouldn't expect it. I think MRK will walk from this one relatively unscathed. Fear is still pretty well priced into this, and anything less than a $10M verdict (which would get reduced to $2M eventually) will likely send MRK higher as the path to recovery clears up. Needless to say, I'm definitely not selling here, and probably won't sell until at least $40-$50 or so. I had considered buying the $30 puts for 0.3 this week, as that could protect from a truly bad verdict tomorrow AM, but I seriously doubt the jury would be so quick to condemn one of the world's leading producers of life-saving medicine. Jurors may be generally naive, but I give them at least that much credit.

MRK all the way, baby!

[IIC]

Did you note that the VIX was rising, but the VOX was falling? That means that the S&P 100 was falling (money leaving) while the S&P 500 is rising (money flowing in). Such a mixed signal suggests high volatility in the next few days--perhaps tomorrow on option expiration day.

No I didn't...thx

[New-born baby]

Options expiration day

No I didn't...thx

Doug,
As you know, very volatile day this one. I look for some serious red today. Monday will be green, (I hope), but this one looks red to me at 4:49 a.m.

[jiesen]

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050819/vioxx_trial.html?.v=4

See? The jury is actually considering the evidence, and if they do that, rather than just consider a widow's grief to base their decision, it must be a verdict in favor of MRK. So, there's no verdict today, no MRK tanking...

We'll see what happens next week.

[jiesen]

Ok, so I was wrong! I just sold out at $28. Too bad I didn't get back in from lunch 10 minutes earlier, or I would have sold it then.

253M for one heart attack without evidence? They're screwed.

We're screwed, too. There won't be any new medicines for another 50 years, I bet.

[spikefader]

Weekly channel long today. Technical buy opp at the inverted SHS and neckline break at $28.10.

[New-born baby]

Cashmaker

Ok, so I was wrong! I just sold out at $28. Too bad I didn't get back in from lunch 10 minutes earlier, or I would have sold it then.

253M for one heart attack without evidence? They're screwed.

We're screwed, too. There won't be any new medicines for another 50 years, I bet.

Yeah, well Cashmaker is buying shares by the truckload now. . . .

[Websman]

Yeah, well Cashmaker is buying shares by the truckload now. . . .

I'm thinking MRK may still be a good short.

[spikefader]

I'm thinking MRK may still be a good short.

It's hard to deny the monthly and quarterly bear flag for it. Price is breaking down from it.

[jiesen]

Bought OFG

I just doubled up my position in OFG (to about 3% of port now) at 13.2. I may be overweighting myself in bank stocks (OFG, FRGB and CIB now are over 6% total portfolio) but I justify it with the slew of insider purchases of OFG over the past few months, the nice dividend, and a $2/shr EPS. If it drops any further, though, I'll admit I'm wrong and cut my loss at 12 or so, but I think OFG is finally showing a little life here, and probably has found bottom at 13. Besides, my other options (I was thinking about picking up more CMTL or AMLN) have already run away from me, and I don't want OFG to get away, too.

[Websman]

I just doubled up my position in OFG (to about 3% of port now) at 13.2. I may be overweighting myself in bank stocks (OFG, FRGB and CIB now are over 6% total portfolio) but I justify it with the slew of insider purchases of OFG over the past few months, the nice dividend, and a $2/shr EPS. If it drops any further, though, I'll admit I'm wrong and cut my loss at 12 or so, but I think OFG is finally showing a little life here, and probably has found bottom at 13. Besides, my other options (I was thinking about picking up more CMTL or AMLN) have already run away from me, and I don't want OFG to get away, too.

I may consider some OFG myself this week. How can you turn down a bargain like that?