MY PICK IS ELN

[lak]

Our small positions could turn into huge positons overnight.

Indeed.... I seriously thought about picking up some more....... but I am happy I am in at all.... And I like the small risk I have staked.

[Tormentos]

Hello, I'm new to posting here, but I have been following this site for quite some time.

I entered into ELN on 6/2 around 6.60, sold last week when it peaked around 7.50 for an Ok gain. I re-entered at 6.69 this past Monday. I am taking very small positions, but like webs mentioned this could pop at any time.

[kingofthehill]

BiogenIdec has agreed to sell its Oceanside (California) biologics manufacturing plant
to Genentech. At this stage both parties have signed a purchase and sale agreement
and the sale is expected to close as early as 23rd June 2005. Originally Oceanside (in
addition to RTP (North Carolina)) was to be used for the production of Tysabri.
• Before the withdrawal of Tysabri, the production process at RTP was expected to yield
sufficient drug to meet the demand of c.70,000 patients. We understand that this
production process is been optimised to increase the yield of Tysabri approximately 4-
fold (i.e. sufficient production to meet demand from c.280,000 patients). Elan indicated
that good progress has been made in improving production yields.
• Given that our peak forecasts assume c.50,000 patients a year on Tysabri, the level of production at RTP is expected to be several fold in excess of the demand of our current estimates. In addition, the Denmark facility which is currently under construction and is
expected to be available from 2008, could be used for Tysabri production.
• Post the withdrawal of Tysabri, BiogenIdec continued to manufacture the drug albeit at
a slower rate and at the end of this month will complete the current Tysabri production
cycle. They will then await the results of the safety review before determining the next
manufacturing steps. Should Tysabri be re-launched, we expect that sufficient drug has
been produced to meet the near-to-medium term demand.
Orla Hartford +353 1 611 5844 [email protected]

[kingofthehill]

Betting On Elan's Second Resurrection


Betting On Elan's Second Resurrection
Ken Kam and Gary Franklin, Marketocracy, 06.17.05, 2:17 PM ET

Elan's shareholders have had a wild ride this year. The stock hovered near $28 at the beginning of the year and plummeted below $6 in late February. The sharp drop occurred when Elan and its partner Biogen Idec voluntarily withdrew from the market their multiple sclerosis drug, Tysabri, after two patients developed a rare and often fatal brain infection called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML.


After bottoming at about $3 in March, the stock has lately been trading between $6 and $8. Is this a good time to gamble on Elan, or is it wiser to sell into the bounce? We believe it's time to buy Elan.

Even without Tysabri, Elan has annual revenue of about $400 million and could be at break-even earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by the end of the year, according to the company's chief financial officer. Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) also has other assets with good potential over the next several years in the areas of drug delivery and Alzheimer's research. Their Alzheimer's research is a collaboration with Wyeth (nyse: WYE - news - people ) where they look to use the patient's own immune system to remove beta amyloid plague. This is a second-generation effort that is currently in Phase II.

With regard to multiple sclerosis, Tysabri has demonstrated its effectiveness. MS is believed to be an autoimmune disease where the immune system attacks the insulation of nerve fibers in the central nervous system of the brain. While it is not fatal, it significantly impacts the lives of patients and can lead to paralysis. About 400,000 people in the U.S. (2.5 million worldwide) have the disease, and existing drugs do not work for about 25% of them, according to the company.

Tysabri is a monoclonal antibody that is thought to work by blocking specific T-cells that cross over the blood-brain barrier to attack the insulation of nerve fibers (myelin).

After one year of phase III clinical trials, Tysabri-treated patients had an annualized relapse rate of 0.25 compared to 0.74 in the placebo group. That equates to a 66% relative reduction rate and a significant improvement in patients' lives. Approximately 94% of these clinical-trial patients had never been treated with currently marketed products. On the basis of such strong clinical trial results and unmet medical need, Tysabri was given FDA fast-track approval in November 2004.

By February 2005, two cases of PML were confirmed, and the drug was taken off the market to protect patients and gather more information. Since then, one additional case of PML has been confirmed, and another two possible cases have been reported but unconfirmed, and all cases involve Tysabri and combination therapy with Avonex, or in combination with immunosuppressive therapies.

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Elan and Biogen (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ) are reviewing every single patient that has ever taken Tysabri to try to establish the risk/benefit profile for the FDA, doctors and patients. This review is almost complete. The good news for MS patients and Elan investors is that there aren't any reported PML cases associated with Tysabri monotherapy thus far.

Tysabri could still become a significant MS therapy with its proven efficacy, well-tolerated monotherapy side effects, and convenient monthly infusions instead of daily or weekly injections. Tysabri compares well to the IMS leader of new prescriptions in MS therapy, Copaxone.

In that drug's largest published two-year clinical trial of 251 relapsing patients, Copaxone only reduced the relapse rate by 29% compared to placebo. By comparison, Tysabri, in the largest MS clinical trial ever undertaken of 942 relapsing patients, reduced the relapse rate by 67% compared with placebo.

Furthermore, Tysabri has proven to reduce the risk of disability progression by 54% compared with the placebo, while Copaxone, in its largest published clinical trial, didn't show any statistical difference in percent of patients who were progression-free while on Copaxone or placebo.

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Tysabri also showed that extended use could lead to further reductions in relapse rates, as it declined from an annualized rate of 0.25 at one year to a rate of 0.22 at two years.

It's not often you get the opportunity to invest in a drug after clinical trials have already proven its efficacy and a company with a great pipeline without having to pay a large premium. In our opinion, the combination of significant upside potential and good downside protection makes for great investments.

It's a good time to buy Elan.

Ken Kam is the president and CEO of Marketocracy, and the portfolio manager of the Masters 100 Fund (MOFQX). Gary Franklin is a long-time member of Marketocracy's M100 and has one of the best track records investing in Elan. Accounts managed by an affiliate of the publisher of Marketocracy MarketScope own Elan stock. For a detailed trading diary of the M100, chick here for the MarketScope newsletter.

More Adviser Soapbox Columns

Send comments and questions to [email protected]

[Websman]

Hello, I'm new to posting here, but I have been following this site for quite some time.

I entered into ELN on 6/2 around 6.60, sold last week when it peaked around 7.50 for an Ok gain. I re-entered at 6.69 this past Monday. I am taking very small positions, but like webs mentioned this could pop at any time.

Keep posting! I hope we make a killing with ELN.

[Websman]

Forbes article on ELN was extremely positive. Maybe the rest of the press will catch on.

[kingofthehill]

Elan has always sadi that the real payday will come from thier
Alzheimer's "vaccine" for patients

Very brief mention of Elan in this article.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8270741/site/newsweek/page/2/

"There are other ways to clear A-beta, at least in theory. In 2002, doctors Norman Relkin and Marc Weksler of Weill Cornell Medical Center discovered that the immune system makes antibodies against amyloid, but that Alzheimer's patients have lower levels. What if you could raise them? In a pilot study, Relkin gave eight patients six monthly injections with a natural blood product called intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg), which contains the antibodies. His goal was simply to boost antibody levels, but he says the patients' family members found them more alert, engaged and articulate. "It was like turning back the clock a year," he says. Elan Corp. and Wyeth are now testing a bioengineered version of an amyloid antibody. They have started human trials, but approval is still at least four years away."

[Websman]

From the Yahoo boards. Probably a made up story, but still interesting.

HMMMMM.... June 28
by: bartlett38122 (55/M/TN)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 06/19/05 10:07 am
Msg: 695811 of 695821

The secretary at my neurologist's office called with a mysterious request. This has NEVER happened before.

The doctor wants me to come in at 9:30 AM on Tuesday, June 28. I asked why and he did not tell anyone, not even his nurse. Just be there. Hmmmmmm.....

I DO know that the contract nurse he hired to give Tysabri infusions only works on Tuesdays and Thursdays and she starts infusions at 9:30 AM.

DOUBLE HMMMMM ! ! !

[lak]

Looks like the bleeding stopped today with low volume and a postive move......... perhaps a turn back up this week.

[Websman]

I bought some more ELN right before the close.

[lak]

So that small position is growing?

[Websman]

So that small position is growing?

Yea...I couldn't stand the thought of having only 400 shares, so I picked up another 600 to make it an even 1000. I could buy more, but I'll stop there.

[New-born baby]

Cheapskate

Yea...I couldn't stand the thought of having only 400 shares, so I picked up another 600 to make it an even 1000. I could buy more, but I'll stop there.

I tried to buy 100 at the close for 6.97 but didn't get the job done.

[Websman]

I tried to buy 100 at the close for 6.97 but didn't get the job done.

bummer. My shares average out to $6.89.

If your willing to buy and hold until the end of the summer, I believe the pay off could be huge.

[New-born baby]

Move Over!

bummer. My shares average out to $6.89.

If your willing to buy and hold until the end of the summer, I believe the pay off could be huge.

Move over, King! Here I come to junk up your thread!

Bile--

One way or another, a big move is coming.