MY PICK IS ELN

[jiesen]

AMLN drug approved- stock down!

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050429/def012.html?.v=8

[noshadyldy]

out this AM for a fast 15%. Too cautious to go back in right now. Waiting to see if Spikey ol boy, ol buddy, ol pal is right again. Not bad if he ain't. Devasting if he is. So i'm waiting it out for awhile.

I'm SO glad you're here, Spike!

[spikefader]

I'm glad you're here too!

Hey, I may be wrong; and the proof of that will be if it forms an W bottom at 3.00 and it holds, and/or an inverted SHS on the weekly, and breaks a neckline. Until then, it's at solid resistance areas and it's a great place to take profits

[kingofthehill]

Elan shares leap as investors take bet on MS drug
Fri Apr 29, 2005 11:55 AM ET
DUBLIN, April 29 (Reuters) - Shares in Elan Corp (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 19 percent on Friday as traders said investors with high-risk appetites were betting that its suspended Tysabri multiple sclerosis drug could ultimately make a comeback. "There's no specific news but it looks like people are betting on the possibility it will return to the market," said one Dublin-based trader. "You can very easily have a $8 share price if you put some Tysabri sales back into the models."
Shares in Ireland-based Elan (ELN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 18 percent at 4.20 euros ($5.43) in Dublin by 1536 GMT, outperforming a 0.4 percent higher Irish market index but 80 percent below their 2005 high, having collapsed following Tysabri's withdrawal.

Elan (ELN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) halted sales of Tysabri on February 28 after a patient died from a rare brain infection. The company is currently conducting safety studies to establish whether there is a connection.

Davy analyst Jack Gorman, whose company acts as a stockbroker for Elan, said in a research note that both Elan and its U.S. partner Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) sounded confident this week that Tysabri could find its way back onto the market.

"Our view is still that the Elan share price is assuming little or no chance of a return for Tysabri, and that a trading opportunity is thus available despite the limited near-term visibility on the product's fate."

Gorman said that while the risks were high, giving the drug a 10 to 50 percent chance of returning to the market with peak annual sales of $400 million to $1.6 billion would add as much as $5 to his $3.82 per share sum-of-the-parts valuation.

The stock was 14.9 percent higher at $5.39 in New York.

Posting first-quarter results on Thursday, Elan Chief Executive Kelly Martin told Reuters in an interview that he believed the treatment would ultimately return.

"I certainly believe that, given the unmet medical need and given the efficacy of Tysabri, that this will ultimately be back in the hands of patients and their doctors."

But analysts believe it could be months before Tysabri's fate becomes clearer with safety studies due to conclude in late summer at which point Elan will begin discussions with the Food and Drug Administration in the U.S. to determine its future.

"You've got to have a high-risk appetite but obviously if Tysabri comes back to the market there's still a lot of upside for the shares," said another Dublin-based analyst. "Both Elan and Biogen management have certainly sounded pretty upbeat."


© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.

[kingofthehill]

I hope you guys made some money this week on ELN

[spikefader]

Nice 1 King - congrats dude. Will you be holding tight for $20 and ignore the resistances?

Bullflag intraday offers the chance for a run up to a gap fill, but it's got to bust the channel short first....

Chart has conflicting interpretation right now. 2 options as I see them: Gray channel turn up, pink channel boom, gap fill potential, intraday bullflag yesterday, are all bullish. The flip side is the bearish EW count, with 4 completion area at current levels looking for the 5th down, and strong blue channel short. Also intraday 5 wave completion yesterday to closing price. Will either fill gap and bust the channel, opening the door to inverted SHS on the weekly as opposed to the 5 wave scenario. Gap may fill and the sell to 4.00ish to form the other shoulder leading to a neckline break and chance to fill the larger gap to 25.00+
The other option is it sells next week to finish the 5th wave down new new lows below 3.00.
Personally, I will look to play the channel short on Monday, because it's a very valid setup and it'll have great r/r if I can try for intraday double top. I think short is the right side to be on for new positions. Existing positions long should take profits now to wait for resolution of the chart, or sit back and take profits at gap fill, to reenter during the formation of the shoulder and maybe to coincide with a channel long day.
Interesting days for ELN, and worthy of watching for more charting lessons

[New-born baby]

So tactful!

Spike,

Are you working on the art of deft understatement? If so, you are becoming a grand master. Look at the chart you posted. Now THAT is a lot of resistance!



I would have to say that these ELN affectionadoes and SIRI affectionadoes have one thing in common: they stand by their stock. Look at ELN's volume! It is starting to rival SIRI's volume. Simply incredible.

The other thing about ELN: it has been, is it, and I suppose it always will be, a wild stock. I never could figure out what it was going to do next. When I figured my taxes out this year, I saw where I made some money on ELN, and I lost some money on it, too. I think that in the end King has some of my money in his account now.

[kingofthehill]

will I hold till $20.00 good question, I dont know but my buy ing and holding and selling will be based on my take of FDA news & Élan science not stock charts, We have all seen this stock defy any charting sense, the big money will be made the day these fking hedge funds realized how big this drug will be .

here is an article from this weekend it lays out the case for the drug very well, this is easy money at this price level, as the stock moves higher i will continue to pay insurance by buying put options.

I knowmany people who were killedin this stock by overuse of margin.
Millionaires were bankrupted by the drop its a lesson for all investore

///comparing this to SIRI ...make no sense this company will be breakeven ebita by the end of the year ...WITHOUT TYSABRI !!!

READ THIS ARTICLE.....

What's bizarre to Dr. Jeffrey Horstmyer, director of the MS Center at Mercy Hospital in Miami, is that less-effective MS drugs known to kill people have been used for years. "We allow Novantrone," he says, "and yet take Tysabri off the market." Novantrone's side effects can include heart failure and leukemia.

http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_showfast.html?article=54121

[noshadyldy]

I agree with your point, King, about other far more dangerous drugs. Many people haven't survived Chemo and the nadar state of extreme depression to the immune system that it puts a body in, yet it's used all the time.

I have to say, I believe in this drug. Having watched an ex-husband die of complications of MS, I know he would have done ANYTHING to get a chance to try this drug were it available to him.

[kingofthehill]

Spike - it is what it is A BILLION DOLLAR PLUS DRUG....

UP 16% today

[spikefader]

...We have all seen this stock defy any charting sense...

OK, I got a bunch of thoughts on that statement - and it's fun discussing this stuff - and educational too.

I'm not so sure that statement is entirely true. A gap and a triangle was the sense spoken by the ELN chart prior to its plunge.

Sure, ELN tends to act in strange ways; no question there. But as far as charting goes there were fairly clear indicators (to me at least) that prior to its big drop it had weakness down below. I think it was the day before the huge drop I posted that chart about the wedge/triangle and suggested whichever way it broke would be the bias. The way it panned out that wedge breakdown was just bearish jackpot if you were holding it short. Never gave longs a chance to exit nor shorts to jump on board; well, not until after-the fact anyway. But even shorts hopping on the bus after the plunge got a run down from 8.00ish to 3.00. But in short, the triangle was a whisper that it 'could' break down. That's sense to me.

Then there is the gap history. Honestly dude, that gap back at Feb 04 was always whispering sense for what was to happen. Gaps haunt, and bulls that disregard gaps purely on fundies can get a rude awakening and newfound respect for this single technical phenomenon.

And now it is currently heading north to close another gap and I wonder how many people, and even you King, will give that gap the respect it is due. That is one of the more significant resistance points it will hit on its journey north. Smart money sells resistance like that. Additionally there are new gaps below its current bullish move; so again, at least the potential for lower and clear 'sense' that one should consider them in trading it bullishly.

So as far defying all charting sense goes, I think it's probably more accurate to say that ELN is one of the tougher chart to detect the truth from.

Bottom line is ELN has proven that it is sage advise and full of sense to consider gaps and triangles; and not underestimate the power of them.

By the way; congrats on the reward you are getting for holding long. I'm really happy for ya. Take advantage of that, and don't let it slip away cuz bullish joy, greed and denial have led to many unhappy traders. And I'm certainly not implying you are experiencing any of these emotions, but if you are, careful my friend

Best to ya.

[spikefader]

Spike,

Are you working on the art of deft understatement? If so, you are becoming a grand master. Look at the chart you posted. Now THAT is a lot of resistance!

I would have to say that these ELN affectionadoes and SIRI affectionadoes have one thing in common: they stand by their stock. Look at ELN's volume! It is starting to rival SIRI's volume. Simply incredible.

The other thing about ELN: it has been, is it, and I suppose it always will be, a wild stock. I never could figure out what it was going to do next. When I figured my taxes out this year, I saw where I made some money on ELN, and I lost some money on it, too. I think that in the end King has some of my money in his account now.

lol well thank you, but I doubt I'll ever become a true 'master' at this stuff. Just as long as I have an edge that lasts and a willingness to learn (and most importantly learn from mistakes so I'm not labeled a fool) then I'll be content.

There will ALWAYS be times when my interpretation is absolutely 100% off. That's one of the brilliant things about trading; resistances DO get broken; supports DO get busted. Setups DO get proven wrong. It ISN'T easy; speculation can reward BIG time, and HAMMERED big time. If these characteristics disappeared and if I was 100% right all the time, then there wouldn't BE a market. I'm quite content having losing setups and interpretations deemed foolish or naïve by others. Without them I wouldn't have anyone to exploit or fade or provide liquidity. I'll be wrong often enough, and ELN could be one of the charts that proves ME wrong. But if I lose the smartest (by NOT being an affectionado then I'll win the biggest, and have realistic discipline to thank for it, and the generosity of the views that oppose mine.

[kingofthehill]

huge move today ..hard to digest this much upside in 3 trading days ... not sure what i want right now but i did sell 100 contracts of JUly 10 that i paid 10 cents for got 50 cents for them

[spikefader]

huge move today ..hard to digest this much upside in 3 trading days ... not sure what i want right now but i did sell 100 contracts of JUly 10 that i paid 10 cents for got 50 cents for them

King nails a five-bagger! Very nice return dude.

[kingofthehill]

ok SPike what do you see for Tuesday ??

up $1.00+ 43 million shares traded