MY PICK IS ELN

[kingofthehill]

well Spike You make sense, bbut im looking at this as a new investor, i made enough money from elan last year to more than cover the downdraft on feb 28 ...but i agree its a tough call

Motley fool had a well balanced argument today on Elan

[kingofthehill]

Biogen's share price has fallen nearly 50 percent since the end of February when it suspended sales of Tysabri after a patient died of a rare viral infection of the brain. Two patients since then have also been diagnosed with the disease. The drug was expected to generate annual sales of more than $1 billion and fuel growth both at Biogen and its Irish partner Elan Corp .

The company is conducting an investigation into what might have caused patients to develop the infection, and still hopes to bring Tysabri back to market if the cause and the level of risk can be accurately assessed.

"Tysabri still may come back very strongly, albeit with more patient monitoring," Kellogg said.

Since the infection typically takes hold of people whose immune functions have deteriorated, such as AIDS patients, it may be possible to prescribe Tysabri only to patients whose immune systems are normal, Adelman said.

Adelman added that Biogen remains committed to the Elan collaboration. However, he said, if Tysabri is not returned to the market, "Elan's fortune's will change and so will the nature of our relationship."

In the meantime, the company, which sells the multiple sclerosis drug Avonex, Amevive for the skin disorder psoriasis, and shares the blockbuster non-Hodgkin's lymphoma medicine Rituxan with Genentech Inc. , is looking hard at developing drugs in new therapeutic areas.

"We have had some internal discussions and recognize that neurology also means pain management, headache, epilepsy and Parkinson's disease," Adelman said. "We are actively looking into these areas."

The company may also expand into treatments for gastrointestinal and pulmonary conditions as long as it can find products likely to generate high enough sales.

"The stakes involved with entering a new therapeutic area are daunting," Adelman admitted.

[kingofthehill]

FWIW: This is my summary of the agenda for the seven April 12 - 13, 2005 session presentations regarding Tysabri at the 2005 Amer. Association of Neurology conference. The AFFIRM (Ty monotherapy)trial presentaions are on TUES. the 12th and the Sentinel ((Ty in combo with Avonex vs. Avonex alone)are on WED. the 13th.

Each presentation is ONLY 15 minutes! So I do not expect anything new about the AFFIRM trial results being revealed on the 12th.

BUT, because of the interest in the PML incidents, I have a feeling that 2 AFFIRM presentations on the 13th might run together.

Therefore, I believe that the important day is the 13th, because of the Sentinel presentaions and the GLANCE (Ty + Copaxone)trial safety presentation.
**************

http://am.aan.com/pdfs/2005_abstracts_Tuesday.pdf

April 12, 2005

4:15 PM AFFIRM - Efficacy & Safety
4:30 PM AFFIRM - Safety
4:45 PM Natalizumab in MRI
*********************************************

http://am.aan.com/pdfs/2005_abstracts_Wednesday.pdf

April 13, 2005

3:45 PM Sentinel - Safety & Efficacy
4:00 PM Sentinel - Safety & Tolerability
4:15 PM Glance - Safety
4:30 PM Natalizumab - Effect on Immune Cell Adhesion & Migration
******************

[kingofthehill]

Tuesday is a big day for ELN , buy the stock with a stoploss you might get rewarded.this PML stuff is turning out to be preventable and the drug will show huge improvement in patients with MS...the rollercoaster is about to continue ..next move is up
..
Important post repeat

{Elan’s Big Day Out: AAN April 12

There will be three separate presentations on the 2 year Trial results of AFFIRM at the AAN meeting at Miami, Florida, on Tuesday 12 April. The presentations will be made by three separate doctors from the studies. They will not be made by representatives from Elan or Biogen. The headings and timings on the day are:

4.15pm. The Efficacy Report: Clinical Results from AFFIRM: A Randomized Double-Blind, Placebo-controlled, Multicenter Trial to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Natalizumab (Tysabri) in Patients with Replapsing Multiple Sclerosis

4.30pm. The Safety Report: Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity of Natalizumab (Tysabri): Results from the AFFIRM Trial.

4.45pm. The MRI Review The Efficacy of Natalizumab (Tysabri) on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) measures in Patients with relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (MS): Results from the AFFIRM Trial}

[kingofthehill]

Elan is up 50 cents after hours heavy volume the news is good take a look !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[spikefader]

Nice King! Hope you clean up.

FYI: I see 5.00 is the channel and 5.53 is the price resistance. That fits for wave 4 completion, ready for 5 down (sorry for the negativity but it is what it is until it isn't )

[kingofthehill]

thanks SPike i have a few hundred calls for April $5.00 bought them for 5 cents each maybe i will get lucky

[kingofthehill]

well the april calls are dead the May calls were up 133% and i sold them also


If bought down here you're up 33% on your investment in 2 weeks
KM last told us that they met with the FDA and agreed to review all 3,000 pts on Ty trials with MRI scans and neuro exams. It has only been 6 weeks so far!!! Once they have assembled the data, they can go to the FDA and discuss the results.

Next, they would be silly to meet with the FDA without having a reasonable hypothesis about why these 3 people developed PML. Pt #3 is an easy one (major immunosuppression). The first two may be slightly more complex.

We learned from Phase II testing that Tysabri levels were 30% increased after 6 mos when given with Avonex. Since pt#1 had been on combo for 37 months and Pt #2 for 25 mos, there is the possibility that they had double, triple, or even quadruple levels of Tysabri. This "overdose" may have predisposed to the condition.

I think you'll agree that it would be prudent not to upset the FDA by discussing things openly before meeting with them. Further, it would also be counterproductive to placate the world, competitors and possible takeover vampires by letting them "know" that everything is OK. Isn't that what you want, to know that everything is progressing and OK???

Well, I'll tell you, things are progressing. There is an army of clinicians, researchers, and paid experts in PML, immunology, pathology, and neurology attacking this problem. Tysabri is potentially a $10B product and we learned early in the commercialization that SOME CAUTION must be taken to avoid "over-immunosuppression". Better that we found out early in the game. Believe it or not, this may have been a blessing in disguise.

Right now, most everyone not reading this board and YMB ELN board
believes that Tysabri is dead. If you show just a modicum of patience, I believe you will get the reward you desire. You will not get your hand held along the way though!

Take it from someone who survived the dark days of $1's and did not have the luxury of hand holding in those days either!

It's been a brutal time for everyone except the shorts. Working out the science will take a while but in the end, Ty will have been one of the most thoroughly evaluated drugs in the world. The patients, neurologists and FDA will feel comfortable that risk has been identified and defined. Knowledge is a good thing!

Keep some dry powder for "opportunities" should they present themselves. Stay off margin. Buy more slowly if you feel comfortable. At this point, it's hard to believe that there is still some value of Ty in Elan's current price...

GLTA

[kingofthehill]

remember that anyone with medical training knows that patient 3 was not a ty case and thus ELN should not even have dropped below 7 - as the imminent return of tysabri becomes clearer ELN will not be near these levels and I would think it would be above 10 - as the price rises it will generate more interest and those people will see that patient 3 was an outlier and with a little bit of work could see a drug interaction cause for patients 1 and 2 with an underlying genetic and medical risk - the methods for patient monitoring are several and they are cheap and easy - also a few knowledgeable folks that thought ELN was dead a month or two ago are now telling me "hey, it wasn't the tysabri drug used in monotherapy that had those PML cases in it" and I tell them that they have finally figured it out. I don't expect anything big from BIIB today on T but I do think we will get a more firm time frame for action on T and the removal of uncertainty will do very nicely for ELN - I think all of those analysts that said that ty will not be coming back will be re-visiting their opinions though not upgrading ELN my guess is that there downgrades and bearish comments got them the shares that they wanted at a cheap price - but as more people are beginning to figure it out I think the speculative fever in ELN will begin to grow and that in concert with a firmer idea of a time frame for Ty action with the FDA I think there may be some very good days ahead. I do expect more compelling info from ELN tomorrow independent of Ty, they should be announcing AAB-001 info that has not been reported by them but has been carried by a few sharp media folks, also should focus on strength of drug delivery and potential prialt market, but the shock phase is over and I think the underlying value case will be made very well tomorrow and as you know I think all of the research that I can find supports a pretty convincing case that Avonex added to Ty was the culprit in additional immune suppression and that will make the return of tysabri a slam dunk

[Websman]

You've got me thinking that I might want to think about buying a few shares of ELN while it's beat down.

[spikefader]

Channel turn up today; chase the closing price tomorrow or go for the intraday pivot. The stop is the tricky part Ya want to keep it under 4%, but that means the stop isn't in the best logical place. The price support of 3.80 is over 10% risk. R/R not good enough. In addition, there is still the looming potential of a 5th wave down. I'll pass.

[Websman]

Channel turn up today; chase the closing price tomorrow or go for the intraday pivot. The stop is the tricky part Ya want to keep it under 4%, but that means the stop isn't in the best logical place. The price support of 3.80 is over 10% risk. R/R not good enough. In addition, there is still the looming potential of a 5th wave down. I'll pass.

Dang! You always make a convincing arguement. LOL

[kingofthehill]

from www.briefing.com

09:26 ELN Elan Corp, on call - Q&A (4.25 )

-Update- Co does not rule out Tysabri use in Crohn's patients, they do anticipate that the label will include cautionary language; co points out that many drugs used in Crohn's therapy have a history of causing drug induced PML. Co states that they are still covering some of BIIB sales force costs; co feels that they need to keep sales infrastructure in place. This is based the underlying assumption that Tysabri will return to the market given efficacy and patient need. Co guides Prialt revs to $130-140 mln for full year. Co reiterates that FDA is conducting an inquiry, rather than a formal investigation.

[kingofthehill]

another nice day for ELn, anyone on board the train to $20.00 ??


70% profit from the bottom
nice option moves also

TYSABRI will be back in the fall ....these anal list are sand bagging the public ...the friggin smart funds are buying big here

[spikefader]

another nice day for ELn, anyone on board the train to $20.00 ??
70% profit from the bottom
nice option moves also
TYSABRI will be back in the fall ....these anal list are sand bagging the public ...the friggin smart funds are buying big here

Don't disregard this pattern, cuz it's quite possible. EDIT: actually, 4 completion will probably be at the gap fill 5.60ish area. Should be heavy selling resistance right there.