Karel's Mechanical Fund

[Karel]

In Bedford county VA we call that "Dairy" cattle.... Not "milk producing beef".teeheehee.

Hey! ya'll got any Kraft singles? A very well known cheese here!

I guess that is why I put 'beef' between quotes. Duh.

About Kraft's: do you mean this stuff? Sounds scary. The best processed cheese can aim for is to be actually eatable. Most is not. Now a well ripened Camembert, just cut into, slowly flowing from its rind, ahh, now that's cheese! (Just to mention one of my, errm, aromatic favorites.)

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

Cammembert?

.... Now a well ripened Camembert, just cut into, slowly flowing from its rind....
Karel

Kinda sounds like a good watermelon!

Karel, you and NBB have much in common with this in depth cheese knowledge dude.lol

[spikefader]

Shoo, now we're gettin' into red wine territory...

[Karel]

11/19/2005

The Mechanical fund finished its first week. Are we happy? Moderately so. We lost to SPY (up 1.11%), but we beat the POTW by about 1%

The fund is now worth 1,002,534; or .25% better than at inception.

The top 3 performing stocks were JLG (+9.03%), CELL (+7.98%) and CMCO (+5.74). The 3 worst performing stocks were SNDK, my pick for the POTW (-9.02%), RHAT (-6.67%) and CME (-3.48%).

BTW, what can we expect from this fund? This is hard to say. Average score for the screen was some 30% annualized over the past 30 something years, slippage and commissions not counted. Plus my fund drags some cash around for rebalancing, and to be able to just buy and don't worry about free cash. The best 12 month period was from March 1999 to March 2000, when the screen (not the fund, which is just a week old) scored over 300%. That won't be repeated, I guess. What probably will get repeated is a -30% or worse year (like October 2000 - October 2001). But we are in it for the average return.

All stocks in the fund are still 'on the screen', so we'll leave the fund as it is.

Regards,

Karel

[scifos]

I've just started my own marketocracy fund too:

http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=HkBhAcGlEdIcHkJaMaKiAbDe

[Karel]

11/26/2005

Good luck with your fund, scifos!

Well, the fund finished its second week, beating the POTW again, and the market too. MF - POTW: 2 - 0! Come on folks, you can do better than that! The fund now stands at 1,021,962 a gain of 1.94% (SPY +1.6%, POTW +0.89%). Over the two weeks, the fund still lags SPY by 0.5%.

The top three gainers were GES, my POTW pick (+10.13%; reckoned from the previous Friday close), JLG (+8.3%), and CME (+5.59%). The three worst losers were SNDK, again (-10.64%), CMCO (-2.62%), and GYMB (-0.05%).

One stock drops off the screen: GYMB (don't ask me why), and the highest stock on the screen that I don't hold is MDR, so that will be its replacement.

Perhaps some people remember my initial announcement that I would also revive my original Marketocracy fund; this has to wait. My computer crashed and needed a new motherboard. Now I have it back it needed a new installation of Windows XP, and after that I could no longer access all (read: all) my files. Right now I am downloading something that might help out. Grr.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

OK, this week is the first the Mechanical Fund bows to the POTW, with its amazing +3.37%. The fund has nothing to be ashamed of: +.46%; total value: 1,026,612. SPY dropped -.22%. Overall the POTW has taken the lead too, SPY is last.

Shiners: CELL +10.3%, RHAT +6.03%, and CMCO 4.21%. Shamers: CME -6.83%, SNDK, my pick for the POTW, -4.92%, and CRDN -2.85%.

GYMB got sold for 20.21, a -1.41% loss. (Now it stands at 22.76; bad, bad timing.) MDR, its replacement, gained 0.95%.

All stocks still on the screen: no changes.

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

OK, this week is the first the Mechanical Fund bows to the POTW, with its amazing +3.37%. The fund has nothing to be ashamed of: +.46%; total value: 1,026,612. SPY dropped -.22%. Overall the POTW has taken the lead too, SPY is last.

Shiners: CELL +10.3%, RHAT +6.03%, and CMCO 4.21%. Shamers: CME -6.83%, SNDK, my pick for the POTW, -4.92%, and CRDN -2.85%.

GYMB got sold for 20.21, a -1.41% loss. (Now it stands at 22.76; bad, bad timing.) MDR, its replacement, gained 0.95%.

All stocks still on the screen: no changes.

Regards,

Karel

Hey Karel..... Just wait till I get the "formula" worked out on this thing. You'll really be "amazed" at the weekly gain dude. There are also some very fine stock pickers in red that just haven't "found their game" yet either. This POTW "H" factor experiment will start to really "click" in short order.... just watch.

[billyjoe]

Lye, Karel, Scifos,
At 1% gain compounded on average per week you'll double your money every 70 weeks (less than 1 1/2 years). In 10 years if you start with $10,000 you'll have over $1,800,000. Scifos will be retired in his early 30's and Karel and Lye , I'm sure you'll also have many productive years left. Who said 1 was the loneliest number?


billyjoe

[scifos]

Lye, Karel, Scifos,
At 1% gain compounded on average per week you'll double your money every 70 weeks (less than 1 1/2 years). In 10 years if you start with $10,000 you'll have over $1,800,000. Scifos will be retired in his early 30's and Karel and Lye , I'm sure you'll also have many productive years left. Who said 1 was the loneliest number?


billyjoe

It'd be nice to retire so early, but with my (future) wife and I both getting advanced degrees (criminal psych for her and law for me) there will be plenty of bills for many years to come.

[billyjoe]

Scifos,
You and your wife can visit us all at the Mr.Market is Huge retirement
casino, we'll have plenty of stories you can listen to until you become sick of us , then we'll give you free chips to use at the tables.

billyjoe

[Karel]

OK, back from the casino there is work to do. Not too much, this is supposed to be a low maintenance portfolio. The Mechanical Fund gained .60% this week, beating the Market (down) and the POTW (+.27%), so: MF - POTW: 3 - 1. The POTW on steroids (POTWOS) reigned supreme, of course. Hats off, Lye!

BTW, on the 100% return in 4 months! thread I am 1.88% down on average, and the MF is sitting pretty with +0.80% average. The strategy I am following really needs diversification! But I'll just continue playing int the POTW, I trust I'll do better over a longer time.

Top 3: GES +8.18%, CELL +4.41%, and CMCO +3.24. Bottom 3: JLG -3.10%, SWN -2.78% and CME -2.66%.

CME dropped off the list and is replaced by LMS. CME went for an overall loss of about -6.5%. This happened yesterday; it is just the report that is late.

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

A good week for the market, SPY up .56%, and for the Mechanical Fund, up .72%. A disastrous week for the POTW, -2.56%. MF - POTW : 4 - 1. My (second), AAPL, didn't help the POTW, with a loss of -5.5%. While I don't mind the fact that my MF is trashing the POTW, it is still a bit disappointing. I would be perfectly happy with an acceptable loss. But the contest is still young; we will see. Since inception the MF gained 4%, SPY 2.6% (dividend included) and the POTW 0.8%.

Lye's POTWOS (POTW on steroids) scored negative too, my guess is below -1.5%, which means that it gives back at least half of its splendid start. MF - POTWOS : 1 - 1.

Top 3 of the MF: SNDK +17.9% !!!, RHAT +6.52%, and JLG +3.47%. Bottom 3: LMS -10.14%, CELL -2.69%, and MDR -2.13%. SNDK is amazing of course, but it really is a rebound from bad news, strengthened by an upgrade. SNDK still shows a loss in the MF.

There are no changes in the holdings of the MF. I love it!

Regards,

Karel

[dmk112]

Good week for the market? I disagree. I guess it could be worse but I wouldn't say it was a "good week" IMO

[Karel]

I don't know how you measure the market, but with IWV, the iShares Russell 3000 ETF, up .47%, it certainly could be worse. 52 weeks like this one and the market is up 28% for the year. This week was certainly above the average. Now IWM/the Russell 2000 was down more than a percent, so the small caps got hit. OK. (And not every small cap, see my fund.) But not the market.

Regards,

Karel