Should $$$MR. MARKET$$$ kill the streak?

**billyjoe** · 12-15-2005, 01:03 PM

Mr.Market,
I agree. We know you are huge whether the streak is 76 or 176. Those who don't "get it" by now never will. The stocks that didn't make it are dragging the good ones down. We need new blood in the port. You've had some great picks this year, but every one that lags is constipating the model .

billyjoe

**scifos** · 12-15-2005, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by billyjoe

Mr.Market,
I agree. We know you are huge whether the streak is 76 or 176. Those who don't "get it" by now never will. The stocks that didn't make it are dragging the good ones down. We need new blood in the port. You've had some great picks this year, but every one that lags is constipating the model .

billyjoe

Well said, and I agree too.

**Gatorman** · 12-15-2005, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by scifos

Well said, and I agree too.

Mr Market
I agree with both billyjoe and scifos regarding the proof of your system.
How about a compromise postion to the one you suggested?
Think you should sell all except PRX, CBK, and AACE this month rather than next December.
Hold these 3 until December 2006 and, if they don't bounce back, sell them also.
The real numbers that matter are the "bottom line" numbers in profits that your system generates. So, if we get more picks, I am all for it!

**spikefader** · 12-15-2005, 01:34 PM

Wow, I'm shocked! I'm devastated! I'm on both sides of the argument! hehe MM's streak come to an end?!? No, say it ain't so!

But shoot, the logic is sound as to why the dogs are bringing the model down and reducing the frequency of other winning picks while those funds sit in the mud.

But having said that, I just looked at them all and the only one I think is definately headed lower is OFG. Sheesh, BEL even has a chance from here. The others look like they have good potential upside. OFG is likely gonna test 9.00 and if it gets there, probably 6.00, but there's a big gap up there, so that's got a chance too I suppose.

It seems crazy to kill your streak for a couple of dogs that still might rise to the occasion in 2006. I vote......

'Keep the streak alive'.

**B.J** · 12-15-2005, 02:20 PM

$$MM$$, only you can answer that question. Up until now, your discipline has been based on buy and hold, and diversification (which provides protection against your dogs). If you sell any of your laggards next year, be prepared to reason as to why you're doing it (price performance, earnings performance, what not...). And ask yourself, will you apply a similar loss cutting discipline in your future trades?

**mrmarket** · 12-15-2005, 02:34 PM

Technically, if I sold PTSI, PRX and CBK, I could go from a new starting point, which would be stocks purchased after October 21, 2003. This would give me a current streak of 30 consecutive winners and add 3 positions to my portfolio to play with...

Hmmm..what to do. What to do?

**skiracer** · 12-15-2005, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by mrmarket

There's no question that 2005 has been a mediocre year for stocks. The S&P 500 is up only 5.6% for the year.

However, there are several stocks in my portfolio which I purchased prior to January 2005. The performance of these stocks for the year has been extremely poor:

PTSI (14.3%)
PRX (30.4%)
CBK ( 4.0%)
BEL (12.4%)
AACE (11.0%)
OFG (51.5%)
NUTR (12.0%)
NUS (26.0%)

The only reason I continue to hold these stocks is that (with the exception of BEL) their valuations are low, indicating to me that they have been oversold. However, the proof is in the pudding.

If 4 of these 8 stocks do not outperform the market in 2006, I will dump all 8 of these stocks and kill the streak in December 2006 and start over. This way there will be many more "seats on the bus" and we'll see more frequent $$$MR. MARKET$$$ stock picks.

Comments?

MM,
I've always felt that your claim of 76 winners in a row wasn't completely justified as these 8 you are holding are not winners. But that has nothing to do with your portfolio record and gains to date even with them in there. You've got an OUTSTANDING record and don't have to prove anything to anyone. The record speaks for itself. But there is no reason to let the money in those issues lay dormant. I don't know if any of them are providing dividends but to me the cash in hand would be better put to good use elsewhere. Take the losses before the end of this year, use the write-off, I believe it would be $3000 a year until you run it out, and put the cash back to work in other great Mr. Market picks. Or use the cash to buy all of us regulars a ticket to the Bahamas and let's go down there an boogie and get some tan. LOL. You'll turn that money into a positive effect in no time. Outstanding on your part to finally make a decision get rid of the dead weight. You'll feel much better once those funds start earning 15% again.

RL · 12-15-2005, 02:44 PM

Ernie nothing lasts forever

**buckhunter** · 12-15-2005, 02:52 PM

I vote to sell

Originally posted by mrmarket

There's no question that 2005 has been a mediocre year for stocks. The S&P 500 is up only 5.6% for the year.

However, there are several stocks in my portfolio which I purchased prior to January 2005. The performance of these stocks for the year has been extremely poor:

PTSI (14.3%)
PRX (30.4%)
CBK ( 4.0%)
BEL (12.4%)
AACE (11.0%)
OFG (51.5%)
NUTR (12.0%)
NUS (26.0%)

The only reason I continue to hold these stocks is that (with the exception of BEL) their valuations are low, indicating to me that they have been oversold. However, the proof is in the pudding.

If 4 of these 8 stocks do not outperform the market in 2006, I will dump all 8 of these stocks and kill the streak in December 2006 and start over. This way there will be many more "seats on the bus" and we'll see more frequent $$$MR. MARKET$$$ stock picks.

Comments?

$$MM$$ -

First of all I want to personally say thanks for helping me find some great picks this year. I've bought 18 stocks this year from your write-ups and the postings of your followers. Some were in your top five, but not necessarily the winner. Your quantative model works. I've sold 16 of those stocks for a profit this year.

With that said, I think you should have gotten rid of some of your dogs (BEL, OFG) long ago. I would be just as happy seeing "89% success rate" as opposed to "76 winners in a row". I want you to sell some just so we can have more frequent picks. If your model works 80-90% of the time, we need more picks!

Thanks again for helping me beat the market this year.

**spikefader** · 12-15-2005, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by RL

Ernie nothing lasts forever

yup, yup, 'cept maybe heaven and God's grace. heh

**Lyehopper** · 12-15-2005, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by spikefader

yup, yup, 'cept maybe heaven and God's grace. heh

and taxes....

**df21084** · 12-15-2005, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by billyjoe

Mr.Market,
Those who don't "get it" by now never will.
billyjoe

Couldn't have said it better myself. Maybe take the losses before 12/31 to offset some of your gains. (Unless these are tax-sheltered.)

Bottom line: Do what you think is the best thing to do. Why? Because you are HUGE!!!

Dave

**Websman** · 12-15-2005, 05:21 PM

The fact is that you hold the world record for the most consecutive profitable trades. Has Warren buffet done that? Or William Oneil? How about Jim Cramer? These guys are all puny compared to you hugeness. They'll never be able to beat your record. Plus, they'll never have 19" biceps.

76 winning trades in a row is an amazing accomplishment, but I would say it's time to dump the losers and get a fresh start towards a new winning streak. Think of it as a new challenge to break your old record. In fact, I think you should issue a challenge for anyone else to try and beat your record.

**sowersnc** · 12-15-2005, 05:53 PM

I say dump the losers. They do not measure up to your 19" biceps. You gave them all the time in the world to measure up.

In most of these cases the reason you picked them have changed. Meaning the fundementals at the time of choosing the stock have changed. To me that warrants a dump.