BEL - Spike calls a bottom.

[spikefader]

Well the title says it all!

I'm calling a major bottom for BEL.

The call remains in effect while the recent October double bottom low (2.50) holds. Below that and I'm neutral.

So post your opinions, your thoughts, your charts and predictions. All are welcome. There may be some bears out there, but I'm issuing this warning: While 2.50 holds, you're in trouble. I'm setting a long-term target of the gap fill at 20.76, an impressive 580% profit and a short-term target of 47% from here. Don't ask me how long it'll take. But the gaps are there, so the potential is there. MrMarket is considering dumping BEL. I think that's a mistake at this point in time.

Charts don't lie; but people do. So don't listen to me; read the chart! It's got it all. Double bottom, boom, bust, vol by price support, channel turn up, channel long on Thursday, big volume days under 3.00, inside day breakout potential there, fantastic r/r ratio for a short term trade (risks 5% and targets 47% price resistance where) hopefully a cup will form that leads to the gap fills. And that's only the daily chart! The monthly shows large trend change with PSAR and weekly bands show very nice upside potential.

I'm expecting huge volume to come in this week or next. If it doesn't then certainly early 2006.

I just listened to the conference call from earnings and management is not hyping; a good thing. They seem to have cleaned up their act in the business, and it's showing in their numbers; first profitable quarter since Dec 2003, which is when the chart price peaked and plunged. My prediction is the next 6 months are going to be huge for BEL and its shareholders.

Finally some good news for this dog of mrmarket's portfolio! May it be just the start!

So gentlemen, and ladies I don't do this very often, but ............ Aaaaaaaaallllllll aboooooooaaaaarrrrrrrdddd!!!!!



This is one of those times when the cat gets tempted!








I'm off to the POTW thread now to enter this pick in POTW. I hope it's low volume doesn't disqualify it.

[Lyehopper]

Bring it on Spike.... This is indeed a rare "Spike pump".... As a matter of fact I can't remember a true Spikefader pump before this dude.... Since you posted this I'm sure the volume will increase this week.hehehe Hey, If Crammer can do it.... why not you dude?!

[Runner]

Spike, I can’t argue with the possibility of BEL putting in a major bottom. It does appear to be doing it. Also if you’ll notice on the daily the 50-day simple moving average has crossed up through the 200. I think the low volume is expected here until some excitment retuns into the stock. Weekly chart also is looking better. I will have to agree with spikes charting on BEL.

Weinstein talks about the 4 stages and at this time BEL is in a stage 1. Position traders will be looking for BEL to clear current range!

[Runner]

Spike this is a peek at the waste management group chart (monthly). Currently the chart is testing old highs from back from 1999. I also guess it does have an ascending triangle look as well. If this group clears this current area I think she will RUN.

[skiracer]

The weekly and the monthly do look like the worm is going to turn. I don't think it is going to shoot to the moon right off the bat but the charts do look worth putting a few pecos into it just to see what goes down. Spike will you be buying it Mon. AM? I think I will be looking seriously at a 1000/2000 share position and letting it sit for awhile. At that a .50 move would be a nice play although it doesn't look like it has been able to hold at $3.25 area. I'll be watching it closely on Mon. morn for an entry. If I get in I hope you win the POTW contest this week.

[billyjoe]

Runner,
Do you know if the waste management sector includes garbage pickup in the same category as BEL? In a way they are completely different, but how else can BEL be classified, maybe environmental cleanup? If they're in the same group I'd not be suprised to see BEL's chart differ significantly from say a Waste Management.

If BEL's books are clean and they're totally legit, they must be grossly underpriced. Who can compete with the facilities they have in place?

billyjoe

[Websman]

It might be worth it to throw in a few $$$ on BEL. I'll look for a good entry.

[skiracer]

Runner,
Do you know if the waste management sector includes garbage pickup in the same category as BEL? In a way they are completely different, but how else can BEL be classified, maybe environmental cleanup? If they're in the same group I'd not be suprised to see BEL's chart differ significantly from say a Waste Management.

If BEL's books are clean and they're totally legit, they must be grossly underpriced. Who can compete with the facilities they have in place?

billyjoe

Billyjoe, I think BEL is in the Environmental Cleanup sector.

[spikefader]

Runner,
Do you know if the waste management sector includes garbage pickup in the same category as BEL? In a way they are completely different, but how else can BEL be classified, maybe environmental cleanup? If they're in the same group I'd not be suprised to see BEL's chart differ significantly from say a Waste Management.

If BEL's books are clean and they're totally legit, they must be grossly underpriced. Who can compete with the facilities they have in place?

billyjoe

I haven't looked into the fundies much at all; quick glance at the earnings release and listened with half an ear to the conference call while distracted by other stuff so I've really got to relisten to it, but there's stuff in the pipeline and potential contracts that if they win then they'll be releasing forward guidance and expectations, which in itself may provide some fuel for a pop.

I'll leave the fundy stuff to others, and anyone want to throw summaries or thoughts in the thread go ahead. I expect this thread is going to be alive for a while....with the caveat of that 2.50 support. Right now I see that at crucial support on a technical basis. I'd be concerned for BEL's future if that doesn't hold. I'd be petrified for its future if the 2.05 bottom doesn't hold. Considering the upside potential for BEL and the r/r from here, it's crazy NOT to give it a chance.

As far as the sector and relationship to waste management, I'll have to look that up, but the chart for waste looks set to rock n roll.




I like WMI and RSG from that sector. OK, just looked, and BEL IS in Industrial Goods/Waste management. Direct competitors are CLHB and WSII.

CLHB weekly chart shows very nice money flow and booming action so it's a very bullish chart, despite the recent gap down on volume. I think while 25.45 holds I'd put a bullish bias on it. WSII has a pretty ordinary chart and I have short term bearish bias on that one. Would be interesting to know whether WSII have/had contracts that BEL may be vying for, or how competitive they really are. Anyone know?

But I'll tell you this: I just tried going to WSII's website they have listed in their SEC papers www.wasteservicesinc.com and it fails to show up/times out. That right there is a short signal to me On the other hand, BEL's website is alive and kicking and pretty snazzy: http://www.bennettenv.com/php/ and that's a buy signal right there!

Ha, wouldn't that be something. Devising buy and sell signals based off companies' quality of websites and whether they look great get improvements, or ones that get buggy, failing features, no improvement, or even shut down. Now there's a pretty cool indication of future performance of a company's chart! OK, I take dibs on that idea!

[dmk112]

Spike, wouldn't you put the stop under 2.50 which would mean around 20% risk?

[skiracer]

I think that there are probably a number of different names for the sectors or groups that those stocks that are performing that type of work could be classified depending on where you look. Here is a list of the stocks that Vector Vest has in their sector and their ratings for all of them for what it is worth. Actually there are a few more but I cut it off short by mistake.

[spikefader]

Spike, wouldn't you put the stop under 2.50 which would mean around 20% risk?

No that's way too high a risk for me. Don't forget you've got the inside day on Friday, which if you know about inside days can lead to volatile and tradeable moves. A break down could lose you all of that 20% risk and more, and you don't want to be long if it breaks down. But under lod is too tight a stop I think, and it's worth tucking it under the 2.90 area to give it some wiggle room.

For this current setup, the logical place is not only within sensible risk tolerance but also tucked under the recent price support of 2.90. If that fails then there is likelihood that the little gap of 2.61 gets filled and so why expose yourself to that risk? The support of 2.90 is valid and strong as I see it, considering vol by price and the high volume days back in September. If price doesn't hold there then that would make me want to step aside. Sure, the double bottom is 2.50. But that kind of downside risk of 18% just isn't worth taking. There will be PLENTY of buying opportunities for BEL if 2.50 holds. This is one to watch for the next year if it breaks out. Perfect entries happen often enough. Patience will be rewarded.

[billyjoe]

Spike,
I've actually heard of people selling stocks that have nice web sites or are too much in the public eye especially if CEO is very visible or on numerous magazine covers. Have you ever been shocked at the poor quality and lack of common sense in the design of major company websites?Multimillion dollar companies with 10 cent websites, especially some financial sites which I wont name.

Prediction : the "spike" factor will increase BEL trading by 10,000 shares tomorrow.

billyjoe

[spikefader]

Just did a bit of research on current holders of BEL.



Half of the float is held by institutions, the largest holder being Frontier Capital Management (ticker AMG) who have $175 billion under management, broad market participation, and have impressive performance against the broader market. They boast total growth of 321% since Q4 1997 versus S&Ps 27% and Annual CAGR of 22% versus S&Ps 3% over the same period. They've had positive EBITDA for 20 of the last 22 quarters. You don't get that by investing in junk. They hold BEL. Perhaps we should too



AMG's Q3 2005 investor presentation is here: http://www.amg.com/ir/presentation/0...esentation.pdf

And here's their chart:
Very nice bullish count. Perhaps a 'c' entry soon. Money flow is great.



Wait a minute! This is BEL's thread! lol But seriously, it should make BEL investors feel better about a long if they know that clever institution with great past performance and a nice bullish chart (and a working website hehe) is the major holder of it. Shoot, might buy AMG soon too (maybe +AMGAO call options). I'll stalk 'em this week.

And for the record, I DO NOT OWN BEL (or AMG). But I will

Consider this thread a heads up, and a few positive thoughts for anyone who wants to look at 'em.

Best to all.

[Runner]

I do see the low risk entry into BEL. I’m going to wait for confirmation on it. Right now I think it has equal probabilities of going either direction from here. Like Spike has mentioned this stock will have multiple entry possibilities in the future. I’ve never bot at the bottom nor sold at the top. I like BEL above 3.39