Pick Of The Year Contest

[mrmarket]

Skiracer..I want to drink with you. I think it would be a fun evening.

[skiracer]

I knew what you meant Ski. I just wanted to "engage you" a little dude, thought you were ignoring me since you didn't "directly" answer any of my previous posts.... nor mention my HUUUUGE pick ECOL along with your mention of the #1 and #3 players.lol

So.... if you were in my shoes, would you have sold ECOL Friday?.... or held it longer? Remember I held ECOL thru the earnings release (4/18 last week).... This is definitly a TA question.

Realize this too. I think ECOL will inevitably quadruple from here in the next 36 months.

Another more important question.... Since I'm currently short SIRF (in real life above 39.50) What's your opinion of that play? btw, they report after the close Tuesday 4/25.

Sorry if I overlooked you Lye. You only hurt the one's you love. As I ALWAYS tell my wife, "sorry hon, it'll never happen again".
ECOL is a great play within that sector. Can't understand why BEL isn't showing any strength lately since it basically deals with contaminated soils also. I would definitely be a buyer of ECOL on any pullback to the $22/23 range. I think there is enough there fundamentally to drive it to over $30 if you have the patience to hold and ride it out. Wouldn't be a buyer until that next pullback. The only thing I don't like is that the analysists always expect more from a winning stock and that may effect it but since they just reported you have another 3 months or so leeway on that front.
I like SIRF to the long side and have been in an out of it a few times since it was around $28. Out of it right now and wouldn't do anything until they report earnings. I like it long and will tell you if you tell me why you like it short first.

[IIC]

I knew what you meant Ski. I just wanted to "engage you" a little dude, thought you were ignoring me since you didn't "directly" answer any of my previous posts.... nor mention my HUUUUGE pick ECOL along with your mention of the #1 and #3 players.lol

So.... if you were in my shoes, would you have sold ECOL Friday?.... or held it longer? Remember I held ECOL thru the earnings release (4/18 last week).... This is definitly a TA question.

Realize this too. I think ECOL will inevitably quadruple from here in the next 36 months.

Another more important question.... Since I'm currently short SIRF (in real life above 39.50) What's your opinion of that play? btw, they report after the close Tuesday 4/25.

You didn't ask me...But I think I would have trimmed ECOL. SIRF...Too risky...I would cover before eps...Doug

Edit: Or take an equal amount long just before eps...then bail on the wrong choice

[Lyehopper]

Actually I was wrong with the mathematics in the first post. What I was thinking was that from here to get back to where he bought the stock orginally the stock would have to gain several hundred percent. I think Ernie bought it somewhere in the 20's, I could be off somewhat, but in that range. I was thinking of what the stock would have to gain from here to get back to where he bought it orginally. But Lye is completely right in that Ernie hasn't lost 100% yet and that theroetically you can only lose 100 % of your initial investment plus margin costs, if any, an if you wanted to include inflation or what you could have done with that money if you had it in your pocket to use again.
But getting back to the original question about anyone owning their plays. I'm surprised that so few actually own their picks in this contest. I owned every play I entered in the POTW. Not to say that I didn't dump them before the week was over because several of them did violate my stop loss point but it's to upsetting not to own them and then have them make some great gain and you're left wondering why you didn't make that play. I say own them if you're going to play them.

I knew what you meant Ski. I just wanted to "engage you" a little dude, thought you were ignoring me since you didn't "directly" answer any of my previous posts.... nor mention my HUUUUGE pick ECOL along with your mention of the #1 and #3 players.lol

So.... if you were in my shoes, would you have sold ECOL Friday?.... or held it longer? Remember I held ECOL thru the earnings release (4/18 last week).... This is definitly a TA question.

Realize this too. I think ECOL will inevitably quadruple from here in the next 36 months.

Another more important question.... Since I'm currently short SIRF (in real life above 39.50) What's your opinion of that play? btw, they report after the close Tuesday 4/25.

[IIC]

My pick is also my largest stock holding (around 20% of total port) and I've been buying it regularly for over 3 years now. I intend to hold at least another 5 years, and to keep buying it for at least another year or three (depending on price).

OK...well I guess we know your pick for next year's contest...IIC

[jiesen]

I'm curious to know if anyone owns any of their picks for the long term in this contest. Is there anyone there besides Ernie, who is down a few hundred % since his entry an probably should be commended some way for his endearing belief in this stock after all this time, that actually owns their picks an is considering holding over the long term.

My pick is also my largest stock holding (around 20% of total port) and I've been buying it regularly for over 3 years now. I intend to hold at least another 5 years, and to keep buying it for at least another year or three (depending on price).

[skiracer]

Lye,
I was thinking just like Ski when he mentioned MM being "down a few hundred %" . If you bought a stock at 25, it then tanked to 2.50, you held as it went up 100% to 5, you might be thinking to yourself "if I could just gain back a few more 100% that I earlier lost..... although not mathematically 100% correct we know what he means. Add inflation and you can lose more than 100%.

billyjoe

Actually I was wrong with the mathematics in the first post. What I was thinking was that from here to get back to where he bought the stock orginally the stock would have to gain several hundred percent. I think Ernie bought it somewhere in the 20's, I could be off somewhat, but in that range. I was thinking of what the stock would have to gain from here to get back to where he bought it orginally. But Lye is completely right in that Ernie hasn't lost 100% yet and that theroetically you can only lose 100 % of your initial investment plus margin costs, if any, an if you wanted to include inflation or what you could have done with that money if you had it in your pocket to use again.
But getting back to the original question about anyone owning their plays. I'm surprised that so few actually own their picks in this contest. I owned every play I entered in the POTW. Not to say that I didn't dump them before the week was over because several of them did violate my stop loss point but it's to upsetting not to own them and then have them make some great gain and you're left wondering why you didn't make that play. I say own them if you're going to play them.

[MickyMouse]

Great showing, Lye and Karen. Now you are catching up.

Call me stubborn, I am holding for my 200% gain some time this summer.

Mickey

[billyjoe]

Lye,
I was thinking just like Ski when he mentioned MM being "down a few hundred %" . If you bought a stock at 25, it then tanked to 2.50, you held as it went up 100% to 5, you might be thinking to yourself "if I could just gain back a few more 100% that I earlier lost..... although not mathematically 100% correct we know what he means. Add inflation and you can lose more than 100%.

billyjoe

[IIC]

Ed.... It's mathamatically impossible to be down "a few hundred % dude".... You can be up several thousand percent.... but once you're down 100% you're at zero.

Can't you lose more than 100% in Futures?...IIC

[Lyehopper]

on second thought....

Ed.... It's mathamatically impossible to be down "a few hundred % dude".... You can be up several thousand percent.... but once you're down 100% you're at zero.

On second thought.... I guess you could be down over 100%.... If you margined a stock and then your stock quickly tanked and lost all it's value and then you got a margin call thus owing your brokerage firm additional money to cover the call you could easily be in negative territory....

[Lyehopper]

Bring it on!

Hi Lye, nice move, but watch your back!

Regards,

Karel

LOL.... Thanks dude.... BRING IT ON!!!!!

[Lyehopper]

Is there anyone there besides Ernie, who is down a few hundred % since his entry....

Ed.... It's mathamatically impossible to be down "a few hundred % dude".... You can be up several thousand percent.... but once you're down 100% you're at zero.

[IIC]

I ask because I wanted to see how many people actually had that much belief in their pick over the long term or for the entire year the contest runs to own it for that period of time. Your pick is now down only 3.5% BTW. Great pick Karel. What would CELL have to drop to for you to exit the position. I have to agree with you to some extent Doug. If I was up considerably in my position, which I am and do own 1000 shares of it from $46 range, I would have to exit the play rather than give it all back or even some small % of it back. If I were Mickey an owned it from his contest entry I wouldn't give it back. On the other hand I might have given it more room from the initial entry since I was playing it for a year. Your exit at 9 % seems to indicate a lack of overall faith in the play for the entire year from the beginning.

Well they missed big time on eps announced in January...Unfortunately my Chrystal Ball was in the repair shop that day...Doug

[Karel]

... Great pick Karel. What would CELL have to drop to for you to exit the position. ...

Well, great pick... There is some luck involved. CELL is a part of my experiment with Mechanical Investing, and you generally don't just pick one stock, but a basket, like in my Mechanical Fund. In my mechanical strategy, I pick the top X of the screen, and sell a stock when it drops below place 25. As this is a guarantee for not selling at the top, I take care to sell on the way up, but always so that my $$$ position keeps growing. Just a way to play this, and I am still experimenting.

Regards,

Karel