Options: Low Cost Investing

[Olegeezer]

Morning, does your chart for SU still look as ugly as other day. Price of oil creeping back up and can't imagine won't go higher yet. ( no longer confusing selling call w/ put) soooo, your thoughts re: reinvestigation of SU option spreads 1/07. Hope you and Spike are 100% right on, but in leiu of that, wasn't it an inspiration to have all the markets closed on the weekends !

[New-born baby]

Su

Morning, does your chart for SU still look as ugly as other day. Price of oil creeping back up and can't imagine won't go higher yet. ( no longer confusing selling call w/ put) soooo, your thoughts re: reinvestigation of SU option spreads 1/07. Hope you and Spike are 100% right on, but in leiu of that, wasn't it an inspiration to have all the markets closed on the weekends !

Well, it still looks ugly. $64 target on PnF, and today has settled along the $75 support line. Will it hold? I don't know. $75 support is pretty strong, but then again, I could show you a chart of the DOW and how it sliced right through awesome support just this week SU is a good company, and long term (ie. years) SU is going to grow in price. But I am more concerned about the next two weeks or so. Along the two week time frame, it is safe to say that we haven't bottomed yet.

Option spreads=good idea. And here's an idea: sell the $90 DEC calls on SU--$5-- HUGE (even dwarfs Mr Market) resistance up there right now. IF SU ever gets to $90, buy to cover. If it doesn't, evjoy the free lunch Or for even extra safety, look at those $95 calls at $3.90. Just be sure you have enough dough to buy the stock should SU make it to $90 or $95.

For a spread I would be waiting for SU to bottom before I buy.

[spikefader]

This thing will bounce soon. We are walking in extreme fear territory.

How soon? No guarantee the bounce will be more than simple correctives after the impulses down. It ain't over until the fat lady sings. Or her little buddy Mr. Vector jejeje who nailed this swing move bias from the top. He's huge, but stays out of the spotlight. He has a lot of critics and disbelievers hehe Anyway, for whatever Mr.Vector's opinion is worth, he is firmly bearish. And it is what it is until it isn't. But look, I note VIX just hit 18.00! Come on folks! Let's talk about VIX! What's going on in that chart?! It's Friday and it's hitting 18.00! What do you think about my prediction? Am I right, or am I full of it?

[New-born baby]

Secret formula

How soon? No guarantee the bounce will be more than simple correctives after the impulses down. It ain't over until the fat lady sings. Or her little buddy Mr. Vector jejeje who nailed this swing move bias from the top. He's huge, but stays out of the spotlight. He has a lot of critics and disbelievers hehe Anyway, for whatever Mr.Vector's opinion is worth, he is firmly bearish. And it is what it is until it isn't. But look, I note VIX just hit 18.00! Come on folks! Let's talk about VIX! What's going on in that chart?! It's Friday and it's hitting 18.00! What do you think about my prediction? Am I right, or am I full of it?

I'd like to talk Vector, myself Seems that secret forumula with 11 herbs and spices is a closely held secret Too bad for me . . . . but the extreme fear territory lasts anywhere from 3-10 days, and this is day three (Wed, Thur, Fri).

[spikefader]

I'd like to talk Vector, myself Seems that secret forumula with 11 herbs and spices is a closely held secret Too bad for me . . . . but the extreme fear territory lasts anywhere from 3-10 days, and this is day three (Wed, Thur, Fri).

hehe you've got that right about 11 herbs and spices I have kept this receipe close to the chest. It's the only thing I don't open disclose. 3-10 days huh.....well that fits in with the 10 day prediction I have if VIX stays up here for the close....

[New-born baby]

YOU make the call

hehe you've got that right about 11 herbs and spices I have kept this receipe close to the chest. It's the only thing I don't open disclose. 3-10 days huh.....well that fits in with the 10 day prediction I have if VIX stays up here for the close....

I make my prediction off of the fear chart; and not off of the VIX. I should study up on the VIX, though. Question: will you make the call here when the vector turns bullish again? I don't want to miss out on the bull charge.

[New-born baby]

Little afternoon rally

I think we get a little bounce this afternoon. PARL is up 18 cents What do you think?

[spikefader]

Question: will you make the call here when the vector turns bullish again? I don't want to miss out on the bull charge.

heh ya neither do I I'm sure I'll be announcing it on the forum here somewhere. If anyone is ever interested what the Vector is doing, just click over to the futures blog and read which way the swing bias is. That tells you which way Vector is.

[New-born baby]

Jun Put

Those JUN $45 puts I bought on the QQQQs look pretty good now, don't they? $2.50 cost. Now $5.90 . . . too bad I covered them at $3.20.

[dmk112]

How soon? No guarantee the bounce will be more than simple correctives after the impulses down. It ain't over until the fat lady sings. Or her little buddy Mr. Vector jejeje who nailed this swing move bias from the top. He's huge, but stays out of the spotlight. He has a lot of critics and disbelievers hehe Anyway, for whatever Mr.Vector's opinion is worth, he is firmly bearish. And it is what it is until it isn't. But look, I note VIX just hit 18.00! Come on folks! Let's talk about VIX! What's going on in that chart?! It's Friday and it's hitting 18.00! What do you think about my prediction? Am I right, or am I full of it?

Well it didn't close above 18, just hit it and then retreated.... which may mean we are in bounce mode. The point & figure target is 19 from the bullish triple top breakout... I say we bounce and then go lower...

[New-born baby]

Forget Spike's Vector

I think we get a little bounce this afternoon. PARL is up 18 cents What do you think?

I am really disappointed that no one caught my market direction finder in this quote. Lye, what is wrong with you these days? Too much Goji juice?

[spikefader]

Well it didn't close above 18, just hit it and then retreated.... which may mean we are in bounce mode. The point & figure target is 19 from the bullish triple top breakout... I say we bounce and then go lower...

Yup yup dude....a DOW 4up 5down on Mon Tues gives VIX a chance to close over 18 and bottom.....I think we are very close to bounce time. But Vector solidly short bias still.....but that will likely lag the actual bounce when it comes. It's that kind of indicator sometimes.

[TFred]

Greetings NB,

Could you offer some advice on what to do when youv'e sold a covered call,and your stock tanks,as in EOG and FTO?

In hindsight it looks like letting the options expire,and either dumping the stock,or selling the closer to the money calls to keep losses under control keeps pain at a minimum.

My only concern is selling more calls on the same shares,and having the price move up strong,with more calls than shares.

Sorry if you've answered this before,I must have missed it.

cordially Tom

[TFred]

Greetings Again NB,

As some info you may be interseted in,a little off topic.

XTO has distributed all its shares of HGT as of May 12.I got some at 25.74,Kurt Wulff has a NPV of $36,and a 8% yield.

On top of that,check insider buying,a bunch bought the 17th,the same day I bought.The only good play I've made in a while.Some on their board were selling $25 puts,which aren't being bid for anymore.

FWIW it seems like a bullish scenario,thought I'd give you a heads up and see what you think.

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

Greetings NB,

Could you offer some advice on what to do when youv'e sold a covered call,and your stock tanks,as in EOG and FTO?

In hindsight it looks like letting the options expire,and either dumping the stock,or selling the closer to the money calls to keep losses under control keeps pain at a minimum.

My only concern is selling more calls on the same shares,and having the price move up strong,with more calls than shares.

Sorry if you've answered this before,I must have missed it.

cordially Tom

Tom,
If I had been you, I would not have purchased EOG as the chart was bearish when you bought it. However, having bought it, I would have held those JUN $75 calls, and as the stock regressed, kept trading deep in the money calls on it. For example, the JUN $60 call was so deep in the money that you would have received dime for dime for the stock as the price regressed. And I would have held that $75 call for my profit. So you would have been able to hold the stock and keep the profit, too. As EOG bounces here soon, you will need to cover that $60 call and sell a close to the money call if $75 seems out of the question (probably is not going to make it by JUN 16).

Your concern about holding too many calls can be addressed with this knowledge: If the price moves up strongly, that deep in the money call will move with your stock price, so you have not lost anything. So you simply cover it and you still have your out of the money $75 call making you dough.

I hope this is clear for you. I will be out of the office all day and so I will have to write more later tonight.