Jim's cycle trades

CAMH,,,the news gets better

guidelines now support the use of MTWA as a risk stratifier....the CEO believes this will bring the rest of the HMO's on board for reimbursement.

Casino stocks

The casino as retailer is my idea but I don't see it as that profound. And, gambling is addictive for many so for people to give up gambling they must be experiencing a crimp in the budget....HET looks to be headed to $50 where I would buy with both hands.....Some like PENN might really feel the crimp as their Argosy in Lawrenceburg Indiana isn't exactly a vacation destination in of itself. Vegas might feel near term heat with their local realestate market skidding. PENN has a giant boat coming to Indiana in 2008 so their expenses are climbing at a time the "drop" might be declining.

[peanuts]

...The casino stocks, specifically domestic only or non Asia exposed, are acting like there's a consumer led recession coming....These stocks are actually quasi retail stocks, the ultimate retailer preying on the disposable incomes of the average consumer....

Now THAT is an interesting way to look at domestic casino stocks. I like it- it makes sense. Did you read this somewhere, or think of it on your own? Do you know of any comparisons of past performance of domestic casino stocks and the condition of the US economy? Maybe some graphical examples? I think you're on to something, here. One thing, however, does having disposable income necessarily mean that it is going to casinos? I wonder what the disposable income/gambling revenue curve would look like...

Or even this thought: when the economy is bad, income isn't as "disposable," so people make better bets, and gambling revenue is down...

They don't care about inflation

they'll just monkey around with the measurement devices to show no inflation....In reality, we need to inflate our way out of debt...Or ask each US citizen to pony up $30K+ for our debt, forget that idea....So, they take the dough out the back door through inflation. The casino stocks, specifically domestic only or non Asia exposed, are acting like there's a consumer led recession coming....These stocks are actually quasi retail stocks, the ultimate retailer preying on the disposable incomes of the average consumer....

Until the gains in the Chinese economy begin to raise wage rates there (and that may some number of years in coming), there is deflationary pressure on wages and prices worldwide. THAT is why the Fed and all the other OECD-type central bankers will tend to be lowering rates for the foreseeable future. The Fed doesn't want to see to much of any kind of a recession in the U.S. because of what it could do to domestic price stability.

Fed lowers rates

And the long bond will rise in rate......I actually expect gold to reach $1000 within 12 months.

[skiracer]

I am using the 2005 chart and extrapolating......if we move the same % from now till Q1 2007, we'll be at $800.....the GLD is in a huge symmetrical triangle....I expect an upside breakout....The big move likely to occur when the fed reserve lowers interest rates to save the markets.....inflation be damned, the fed doesn't care.

Interesting scenario. Lowering the interest rates to boost the markets again. How low do you think they will have to move down from todays levels.

Gold to $800

I am using the 2005 chart and extrapolating......if we move the same % from now till Q1 2007, we'll be at $800.....the GLD is in a huge symmetrical triangle....I expect an upside breakout....The big move likely to occur when the fed reserve lowers interest rates to save the markets.....inflation be damned, the fed doesn't care.

[skiracer]

early 2007

Jim,
I like gold to go to $700. I'm holding the ETF from $46 and just holding. $800 would be real nice. What are your thoughts on making it go to $800?

Looking for $800 gold

early 2007

CCJ....symmetrical triangle b/o

increasing volume too

Here's a potential problem

The OEX simply ran out of gas when it reached the top rail on the weekly chart....The OEX was a relative strength leader....The dates of the rally match up with what occurred in July/August 2002.....Will September 2006 be a repeat of Sept 2002? There's plenty on the plate to worry about such as the middle east, oil and housing.....Can the market rally on worry alone? Yeah, if we were'nt over bought to begin with.....On the look out for a potentially horrific September selloff.

[skiracer]

there are so many chart readers these days I think the busted patterns are going to provide the best profits going forward.....ie, H/S patterns are obvious and therefore often doomed to failure....I think many folks give up on a chart once the pattern doesn't seem to play out as expected.....However, if they played the pattern failure, I think they'd ring the register with nice gains.


BDK got a new buy from Deutche bank today....looking forward to how it trades since it's between strikes and just a hair under the lower rail of the weekly symmetrical chart pattern.

Sometimes it's hard to see the forest for the trees but that's a great idea about looking for the busted out patterns.

MHK....symmetrical triangel b/o?

Looks to have closed a hair above the top descending rail....Lots of housing related data this week along with LOW earnings Monday....MHK could be ready for a 15% rally near term.....

ADSK...bought in preopen

I think their numbers don't justify this selloff despite delivering less than a full earnings report....