Education and Market Wisdom

[Shadow]

Good morning everyone,

I am a new member here and I have decided to
start this forum for all us “new”investors. This site
is for education and questions that may not always
be appropriate in other forums or seem too elementary
for some. This way all remains in one forum and I don’t
clutter up your other forums. Works for me!

I hope all you wizards will help out. Please feel free
to post tidbits of advice /education even if the question
hasn’t been asked. I know I will appreciate it and I hope
there are others that will as well.

I can’t speak for everyone but I have a lot of learning to
do and I’m not embarrassed to admit it. I really only know
about ½ of what I think I know. I am an eager student.

Let the learning begin!

Thanks in advance for your time and patience.
Shadow

[DSteckler]

Questions

<< Please feel free to post tidbits of advice /education even if the question hasn’t been asked. >>

Never think a question is too elementary to ask; if you have the question, so do others who are too embarassed to ask it.

[billyjoe]

Shadow,
Do you have a cutoff point on price/book ratio? Thanks

billyjoe

[Shadow]

"Never think a question is too elementary to ask; if you have the question, so do others who are too embarassed to ask it."

Thanks Dave, I'll take you up on that

Shadow,
Do you have a cutoff point on price/book ratio? Thanks

billyjoe

No, I don't have that.

Thanks
Shadow

[Shadow]

There is a long story behind this and I won’t bore you
with the details but could I get some opinions on Merck?

[Shadow]

There is a long story behind this and I won’t bore you
with the details but could I get some opinions on Merck?

I sure could use some help with this stock; having trouble reading this one.

Recent Merck updates: New CEO; Gilmartin was ousted since he spent more time sitting on his brains than using them. Recent release of an intent to buy back $3 billion in shares. New drug releases in ‘07. Analysts seem divided on this one. I’m still not very good with trendlines and price targets. I know the FA side is not the best. Any opinions on this stock?

My choices are:
1. Leave 20% $ in bond fund PTTRX with 2.58% yield for '05.
2. Move bond fund $ into other existing funds or into a new fund.
3. Any or all $’s back into Merck stock for a short run up. Unlike
my brokerage account, this is the only individual stock I can
purchase for this account. Upside potential for a short term play?

[Runner]

I like the chart action on MRK since last gap up. Trend looks pretty good to IMO.

[Runner]

here the pic i see on mrk.

[Shadow]

Thanks Runner.

Do you have an idea of potential short term target?
Next trail is Jan 29th.

[Runner]

Shadow, I would suggest you follow your own led with stocks. Everyone has different approaches to trading/investing. You want to get your own conclusions and follow your plan and not anybody else’s. Best thing is create a plan and stick with it and let the market prove whether your right or wrong. In fact forums can be a dangerous place because many will get kicked off the path and find they always trying something new. This could lead to confusion and a negative effect on your account.

[Runner]

Thanks Runner.

Do you have an idea of potential short term target?
Next trail is Jan 29th.

Shadow, I see MRK’s last entry on 1/3/6 trigger line was 32.45. It would have hit my IPT and I’d scale out and trail rest. My style is short term and that is my take. See what I mean about different approaches.

[Shadow]

Runner,

I totally understand and agree with you.

This particular stock out of the 1000's out there
is the one I can't view without bias. I was looking
for some unbiased opinions because mine are where
this company is concerned.

Also, hard to use a trading style in this particular
account since my options are so limited.

Thanks for your input!

[Shadow]

Bringing this forward for us newcomers to ask
questions and learn from all the smart ones.

OK guys...... let's hear your wisdom and tips.
Bring it on. We newcomers are ready!

Shadow

PS: Hope this helps Gerihearne.

[spikefader]

Hi Shadow.

If I weren't so sleepy right now I'd probably search the forum and find some previous posts I've written on market wisdom as I see it ....... but I did find one of 'em. It's on discipline and it's windy....but I think it's worth readin'.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=23108&postcount=3799

There are plenty of clever folks here that offer great advice too. Remember the 'search - advanced search' feature is a really cool tool if you're looking for something specific. Put a few key words in and get it to list individual posts and presto.

Good luck in your search for truth and wisdom in the markets!

[ParkTwain]

I'm not going to comment on MRK's business prospects.

If you look at the recent chart, it seems to me that the stock has almost succeeding in changing the stripes it took on because of its drop in Sept 2004.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRK&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Notice in this 2-yr chart that since that big drop the stock's price has risen back to the level of 35.00/sh as of May 2005. Then it fell back and now it is about to reach the 35.00/sh threshold again. This price level is called a "resistance" point because in this stock's recent past, its price failed to advance past that point (i.e., sellers become dominant and the price therefore fell and hasn't surpassed that point since).

This time around, if MRK's price can surpass 35.00/sh, you should see that (a rising overall stock market in the background will help as well) it has a better than even chance of rising further to around 45.00/sh, which is the price at which all the selling started taking place at the time of its big fall. So if MRK fails to surpass 35.00/sh in next couple of week, and especially if it reaches 35.00/sh +/- 0.5% or so, then falls again as much as 8% below 35.00/sh, at that point I would recommend that you exit the stock and put those funds elsewhere. (That behavior would indicate that in the near future the stock isn't ready to truly change its stripes. I don't know whether you're interested in waiting for a change in stripes for longer than the near future. If you're young, I would be more aggressive in making such decisions.) However, with a rising stock market at its back, I wouldn't be surprised when MRK surpasses 35.00/sh and on good volume to boot!

"If it ain't already going up, don't buy it."