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Originally posted by spikefader
BGO in the C down.
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previous chart also http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/2803/bbhjan248ko.jpgOriginally posted by spikefaderIn the 'c' now.
IN REVIEW:
I recall a discussion about BBH (maybe Runner??) about this one, and how it was in opposition to the sector and maybe not such a good trade. As it turns out, for whatever reasons, whether sector weakness or market weakness, or whatever (I actually haven't looked at the sector chart), that no matter what reasons that oppose the trade, ya gotta just trade the chart. Me, I trade what the chart is saying; not what the sector is doing or the market is doing. Stocks very often move contrary; and this is a classic example. All ya gotta worry aobut it putting the r/r numbers on your side, and sit back and see what the market hands you. In this case, you'd still be holding short with stop to even now.
I missed the thing; dunno why, just distracted I guess....
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Spike, I’m expecting a possible bump up in the BBH. If you draw a trend line connecting the lows and highs you’ll see how this channel has been playing out in the past. I see the BBH as being in a clearly defined downtrend. If the lower trend line is violated then Now we all know no guarantees for the future.hehe
My sub sector chart on BIO stocks has been clearly bearish. Yes many stocks will defy the sector trend. My group chart is made up of 169 bio stocks. I still think it helps to have the wind at your back. If the sector is falling out of bed I’ll pass on the trade even if the lone ranger looks good. Yes this may mean I miss a great trade but the wind is not at my back and therefore I’ll look elsewhere.
I agree once a trade is in progress you forget about everything else going on and only focus on the chart, but just me.. What causes a group to run? Is it not the big dogs jumping on board? What causes a group to crash? Is it not the big dogs cashing out? Is their any merit to looking at sector charts? I say yes because then you’re not just looking at one stock but a combination of every stock in the group.Comment
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Hey NB, I think your right on this rounding top in CERS..I guess we shall see if the Bulls support the 50dma..Originally posted by New-born babyCERS sports a round top.
Picture perfect, wouldn't you say?
Could make a c failure still. Not concerned about it. The option chain is
incredibly strong.
BNT took a tremendous beating this week. I'm long gone, but I still watched the beating.
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Cers
Yup, Runner, if this thing dips below Friday's low, kiss 'er goodbye, as she's going to tumble. I wouldn't like to see it return to $9.68 . . . .Originally posted by RunnerComment
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Yeah, good points Runner. And never truer words said: "No guarantees for the future". Ya nailed it. The more we try to predict, the more vulnerable we become to being proven knuckleheads fer tryin'! I guess it always comes back to trade what ya see and be prepared to turn on a dime And that's what's great about drawing r/r lines in the sand, and makin' stops tight. GM a recent reminder for me heh
I'll revisit BBH in a couple weeks and see how it tracked.Comment
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Folks, I’m doing a little follow up on Spikes recommendations with his C long calls. I’ll plot the day Spike posted the signal and the top or most profit that might have been made. Understand we never sell at the peak or buy at the bottom.
01/18/06 ALY long @ 16.30 Peaks 10.64% on 1/31/06
01/20/06 ALKS long @ 23.50 Peaks 5.78% on 02/01/06
01/20/06 MDR long @ 49.35 Peaks 6.59% on 01/24/06
01/26/06 OPLK long @ 16.46 Peaks 8.39% on 01/31/06
01/26/06 HANS long @ 91.78 Peaks 1.46% on 01/27/06
02/02/06 INSM long @ 2.36 Peaks –9% on 02/06/06
02/03/06 CERS long @ 13.92 Peaks .64% on 02/06/06
02/10/06 CHNR long @ 15.20 OPEN
Well this was the best I could come up with. Now this was taken only from a daily chart and I’m sure I missed several of Spikes set-ups. Also this does not tally spikes entry price. So the percentages are approximate.
Overall I think Spike has done a fine job folks with his C plays and is worth more investigation as to the profitability of the system. I do however think some would require being at the screen all day to monitor the action from an intraday perspective. Also if you’ll notice an important trait Spike uses. He always gives the r/r on each trade. Now all one would need to apply is the size of the position to apply for the trades. Using aggressive position management you can see his system is a success. In a questionable market might be wise to tread a little lighter then in a full-blown Bull!!
Spikefader, ya da man!!Comment
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I like the concept and think it does work. I'm able to sit and watch the screen all day either in my home office or field site office and you really do have to be in front of the screen realtime to make the decision when it presents itself. Also to be able to see a failure, an I think they happen almost as often % wise as do the spikes up, and to be able to make the exit is crucial. I think the key is to be there in front of the screen to catch the c wave bottom and the move up when it begins or the failure if it goes that way. I still think it would be neat to follow a number of these setups for a couple of weeks and to see what the %'s are of winners vs failures. Somewhat like Bulkowski has done with his chart formations.THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR
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Hey Runner; cool dude! Thnx fer doin' that tracking. Interesting numbers from that perspective. And you've prompted some thoughts I'll share for anyone still interested in 'c's after the fairly average results of late.
What should we be thinking about the 'c' system? What about its success/failure rate, the percentage win to expect, the average winner, and how to leverage it for success.
Firstly, I ask myself what is it about 'c's that are so attractive? For me, it's always been the big moves that have proven to follow them. Many many times in the Scientific thread I've chart up stocks that showed impressive moves coming off a 'c'; certainly enough to raise my own interest in them and try to employ them to look for that multi-wave move. For a long time I've focused on channels to look for perfect entries, and I remain convinced that they are in a league all of their own. A channel long with confirming intraday pattern is hard to beat when it moves nicely. But since observing the 'c' thing, it was clear that it was potentially just as good. In fact, curiously, 'c's and 'a's would occur on the very same day as a channel long. Go figure! Pretty cool huh. So one might ask, "What is it about those days?" And the answer is simple. It's a solid support area that gets bought. Channel longs, 'c's, FIBS, fans or an indicator, or price divergences or whatever. It doesn't really matter that much, cuz bottom line it's support ....... and if you join in on support that is bought, you get rewarded for it.
And THAT's the crux of the 'c' issue as I see it. Support is support until it isn't, and the smartest money in the world buys support and admits defeat early when wrong, and that same smart money holds the winners to fruition until it either meets a logical target or shows a reason to get off. A channel long is a channel long until it isn't, a 'c' long is a 'c' long until it isn't, support is support until it isn't. Do we know when or how often support is going to fail? Of course we don't know.....who does?? All you can do is support the support where it sets up for you, and bail at support failure or future resistance where it sets up for you. Hopefully that involves logic and good management, and your account increases not because you're the best winner, but because you're the best 'manager' of the losers. The profit is gained by applying sound money management and risk control. It's ALWAYS been about that, and WILL always be about that.
So bottom line is the WORTH of the 'c' long isn't the vital question guys! I think it's already proven to be a support point. We should just accept that and move on. The vital question is how do we trade around that support level? And the answer is the same as every other support level; you trade it with common sense and discipline.
The vital question involves the r/r and the discipline you apply to the support the chart shows you. Everything else in the equation is market force, and that, my friends, is beyond our prediction. Sure, we might have a good idea about it; but the market will humble the most stubborn trader who thinks he knows where the market is going. If there's one thing I know it's that I don't know where the market is going. Give me a chart, I'll put a bias on it, and I'll trade it, and rely on the r/r numbers to get me right. If I'm reckless to r/r and trade management, I'm headed for negative numbers.
So with all that in mind, examining 'c' long success or failure and trying to weigh up whether it's worth investing in, is a lot more complex than tabulating numbers of highs or % moves from entries that I've happened to see and post about recently. While that's interesting stuff Runner, I don't think one can draw too much from it. One might be tempted to look at the numbers and say, OK, I'm going to fit a model to the numbers I've seen the last 2 months. So you might be tempted to say, OK, I'm gonna target only 5% cuz that's the average I see. But what you're doing is basing your entry off a good r/r number but not sticking to that plan. So what that would mean then is you have to change, i.e. reduce, the risk allocated if you're only targeting 5% so that your r/r remains good. But if you do that, you may well get stopped out a whole lot more, or you may miss a whole lot more 'c' moves cuz your limit is down near low of day or whatever, while price rockets off without you because you can't afford big stops if you're targeting only a 5% move. Personally, I don't see the need to target shorter. My expectation is for a series of impulses and reward 10 times my risk. And to keep the logic unflawed then I'm going to have to provide the opportunity for them to get to that original target. Otherwise my logic and management and risk control is flawed, right?
Getting more specific to recent 'c' long calls recently, I think the only recent 'c' that has worked for another 5 waves is CERS, which I took as my Pick of the Year at $9.70, and gave a 52% high on that trade in just 16 trading days and has retraced to give another 'c' entry at $12.30 this past Friday. Here's the chart for that one:
Right now, the stats of 'c's in this thread don't really reflect much success. There have been a handful of stop outs for -2%, and many more pushes for breakeven, after getting to as high as 13% for ALY (runner I think your 10% figure is miscalculated??) and +10% for a couple others. INSM gave that gap down through the stop area, but I used discretion to add into the weakness and not take the hit, and now it's open with 4% green and a chance to be a real winner.
But it's just a matter of time before several do react nicely and do the 5 impulse thing. And THAT's where the great money resides. I think one might be tempted to look at the numbers thus far and say, "Dude, just target 5% and move on". But I don't like the idea cuz you'll miss out on those CERS 52%+ winners, and targeting short like that is going to increase the churn and the trading costs and the effort required. Bottom line is that someone might only want to allocate a couple of 'c's into their broader trading style, and pass on others that present while they patiently wait for their targets. And so if that's true, as it is for me, the numbers are kind of meaningless. My point is that hunting for perfect 'c' entries with great r/r numbers is the key. Once you get them, and they go green, then allocate green hope to the trade, and see what happens. It might turn into a CERS or a VPHM (remember how many 'c's that bounced off for another 5). And if it's the case where you're only going to allocate room in your port for say two 'c' longs and you've maybe tried for 10 times to get 2 good ones, during which time you've stopped out 6 times for even, and 4 times for -2, totaling -8%, and you're now passing on every 'c' that you see while you give the two you do hold a chance to give you far in excess of the -8% that you've endured to get those 2 SuperStocks, so to speak. They may give you 50% each, so you've made 100% and it's cost you 8%. And while you're holding those 2 you endure the correctives, and broader market weakness, while the 'c' system ISN'T seeing much success, and it matters not to you cuz you're not trading it for the time being. Your winners are keeping you out of market chop, ya know?
And it the above is how it happens for you or me, then our actual success is not reflected by the system numbers that someone else may compile during cruddy times. Ski may use discretion to pass on some 'c's that present for his own discretionary reason, and I may too (like I did with GNTA - doh that 'c' moved for +65%), and ski may take the GNTA entry that I passed up on, and his system results are going to be different/better than mine for not taking that one.
And so it gets back to this:
This thread is merely a 'c' long heads up thread. It was never intended to 'prove' the worth of the setup. I know it's a great setup; I've seen 'c's turn into enormous winners over the months that I've talked about them. Market conditions are going to vary and have an impact on the setup, sometimes they'll just fire off with not many failures...other times, there will be lots of failures and only one or two firing off. And the difference....the edge....the profit-making quality within 'c' longs (or shorts) is how you apply your risk control to them. If you keep sub 2% stops, and be disciplined in the face of failing setups, and stay focused and quietly patient, then it's just a matter of time until you nails a couple of great entries, and let them sit in your port for the month or two that they turn into fantastic trades that blow your socks off. If you have an r/r of 10, that means you can afford 9 failures for every 10 setups and still be breakeven, less commission and slippage, of course. So your strike rate can be a pitiful 10% and still do OK..........and for the times when your strike rate is 50% with a bunch of impulses ..... it's party time, dude, cuz Mildred is gonna wanna go celebrate! lol
Make 'em pretty!Comment
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I'm a believer
Keep a callin' 'em, Spike! I'm a believer! Go CERS! (up, that is)
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NB,Originally posted by New-born babyKeep a callin' 'em, Spike! I'm a believer! Go CERS! (up, that is)
My previous post wasn't suggesting that I didn't think the c wave setup doesn't work. I think it's a great point for a possible entry if you catch it when the timing is right. I also agree with everything Spike stated in his post about the r/r factor and the tight stops. With any position limiting the losses to a minimum and letting the winners run are the key factors. It's the same with any chart formation that you may think is going to move in the direction you're looking for it to go in. None of them are guaranted and the larger percentage will not work out the way you want them to. It's the management of the trade and your money that counts moreso than the chart formation or setup. I was just suggesting monitoring a number of general c wave setups to see what percentage worked out to get an idea and not to say that this is what you can expect. Just like symetrical triangles, ascending and decending triangles, bear and bull flags etc. Not all of them work out but there is a generalized percentage that will do what you expect them to. Some chart formations are closer to the true definition of what they are supposed to look like and some aren't but being closer to the true accepted definition of any chart formation may provide the better setup and result. There are always variables to consider in every instance. Like being in front of the screen to monitor the play has got to be better than setting a trigger and stop and going off to work and hoping for the best. The generalized acceptance of anything without considering all the variables will have an adverse affect more times than not. Your stating that you are a believer is exactly what I was getting at. For anyone to accept the setup as worthwhile is one thing but to think that they are all going to go in the direction that you expect them to isn't going to work out over the long run. But anyway the farthest thing in my mind was to knock the formation. I like the setup and the possibilities it brings. I was just curious as to how the percentages would work out if some number of them were closely monitored over a few weeks time. I bought MIND Friday afternoon off of a c wave setup
which looks to be working out. Hopefully it will continue to go in the right direction.THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR
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Ski, I got what you meant; I didn't take it as a knock of the formation and I doubt NB did; I think he was merely being his usual positive self And you're right, ski, it's just another setup in the world of setups. Trade 'em according to your tolerances. Or pass on it cuz it doesn't suit your personality or whatever. Or pass on 'em cuz it's complete EW nonsense. It matters not to me; I just wanna make successful smart moves that turn a profit. 'c's are good cuz of the high expectation; and let's face it, impulsive up behavior is better than meandering boredom that doesn't move much. Impulses are the ones that will hand you 50% in a month, whereas setups in congestion or choppy stocks or spikey stocks aren't gonna do that. The 'c' presents an ideal potential to be exploited.
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Hey!!!
You know what might be a cool idea! Focus on the really brilliant stocks.......what better than MM's latest data dump!!! (filtered to get the low volume and poor money flow ones out of course)
Yep, I like that idea!!!!!!!!! ........so what I'll do for something different and to improve the results (??) is focus only on THOSE.........and then just patiently track and wait until any 'c's present themselves.
So far we've got MM's Top 5, MM's winner, the Creme of the Crop, and now I could do MM 'c' Longs! What's a good name for them.........maybe MMC's?
Name suggestions welcomed!Comment
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My purpose of my last post was not to judge the C set-up or grade it in any means. You cannot get a feel for a system in 2 weeks or 2 months IMO. I thought the point was clear that I thought Spikes C calls have been pretty darn good. NB, I wish you well on CERS but that set up was not my cup of tea. I’ve never been good at picking bottoms and so if CERS is getting ready I feel it will offer another opportunity.
One common denominator in the stocks that surge 50% in one month and that is volatility. Heck look at CHNR it supports a whopping 250 over last 50 days. If your looking for the ones that really pop think Volatility >25.
Spike, keep up the great work as I enjoy this thread…Comment
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