C long/short spotting - should we have a dedicated thread?

[spikefader]

Spike what’s ya think of the Amex Biotech Index?

Cool chart. The weekly shows the 725.70 was an upper reg channel profit-taking tag.....
Here's the daily. See how the pink 'c' and green 'a' corresponded with channel longs!
Clearly bullish bias. Long-term I'm seeing 865.00 for it.

[Runner]

Spike, sorry for all the confusion ..lol I wanted to try to prove a point that I think is very valuable to being on the right side of the trade. I chose BIO as my example. Ideally you want to find stocks within the sector that is mirroring the Index or sector chart. I have found that the more wind you have at your back the better.

[Runner]

Spike I think TLAB may be a C play off the daily chart. Nice P/B to support. One thing I was concerned about is the possible formation on a S/H/S on the daily. How do you see the daily on TLAB?

[New-born baby]

My bile

Spike I think TLAB may be a C play off the daily chart. Nice P/B to support. One thing I was concerned about is the possible formation on a S/H/S on the daily. How do you see the daily on TLAB?

Runner,
I am posting to compare what Spike/Runner say vs. my chart below.

I couldn't EW my way out of a paper bag, so I couldn't spot a "c" long without you or Spike pointing one out with a magnifying glass. So here's how I look at that TLAB chart. My view is that today is pivotal. The STOs all say that TLAB hasn't bottomed here, as well as the s~h~s setup that you pointed out. I see $9.80 or lower as the bottom for the lab. But today the chart could reverse, (IMO), if TLAB is able to jump up off the current $10.50 support. I would have to wait for the STOs to confirm the bottom for me.

http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/633/chart19kx.gif

[spikefader]

Spike, sorry for all the confusion ..lol I wanted to try to prove a point that I think is very valuable to being on the right side of the trade. I chose BIO as my example. Ideally you want to find stocks within the sector that is mirroring the Index or sector chart. I have found that the more wind you have at your back the better.

Well shoo Runner lol my head hurts now! lol

"Right side of trade" I agree. The wrong side sucks bilgewater! heh

Does one measure that right side by "Ideally mirrororing" a sector chart? Obviously you (Runner) do. And if someone forced me to answer whether that's smart, I'd be fooling to disagree; cuz it goes against logic ... or at least one side of logic, but there's another side to logic, that I'll express.

Stocks often run opposite to what its sector is doing; sometimes expectedly (sometimes inexplicably). But either way, price action in the chart and reactions to support and resistance are the key to the puzzle. Show me any chart that runs opposite its sector (including the one you've provided in your first question - BBH vs $BTK) and I'm sure there's a S/R price action story to tell. With your 2 examples, Runner, it's clear that BBH is selling harder on the down days, falling through more supports relative to the index. The obvious conclusion that jumps to mind is that it's a dog. But without looking at the longer-term charts for it and doing full analysis on the chart I'm not prepared to try and explain the 'why'. But bottom line, the 'why' is real and it's weaker. Now if a count happens to set up for it, then based on that issue weakness don't you think it presents an arguement that it's one day soon gonna offer a nice short?

Perhaps on a weak $BTK that'll happen, then perhaps the BTK may sudden git bearish unexpectedly. It might be gonna drop for the green or pink C and who knows, it may even fail both of them (remember the weekly profit-taking tag). Should THAT happen, then I'd expect BBH is gonna be a shot duck.

But bottom line to summarize that is that he BIO index isn't gonna save a crappy bio stock that screams "short me" "short me" "I'm a dog" hehe

And residing above ALL of that is the fact that all one can do is find those great r/r setups that put the numbers on your side. Any bias I have for a market or sector is exactly that.....bias. If you eliminate any trade based on sector bias, in the face of a great count, and then the count proves right and bias proves wrong, then you've not only missed a great trade, but if one is stubborn thinking "I should have been right', then you're left befuddled until you're prepared to admit you were wrong to assume anything about the market. Meanwhile the one you've let go cuz it wasn't "in line" with a sector index may prove over the weeks following that you were a knucklehead to presume anything other than what was in the stock's chart in the first place.

The market within a specific issue will do what it wants to do; in the face of broader sector or market bias.

Assume nothing, expect nothing, plan for everything, be positive and decisive.

Thanks fer the thoughts, Runner. It's an interesting debate.

[spikefader]

GNTA 'c' is in now. Man I don't like that weekly money flow. I think I'll pass on it.

[spikefader]

OPLK 'c' appears in, daily higher high.

Long here 16.46 just under pivot.

Risk with 2% stop (under 'c') to target impulses to +25% area. r/r of 12.5 pretty good.

I also note intraday yesterday on a 1 min chart, there's 5th down move and abc 'c' short failure type pattern around current levels, so this is 'c' resistance yesterday that is now support logic.

[spikefader]

[Runner]

Runner,
I am posting to compare what Spike/Runner say vs. my chart below.

I couldn't EW my way out of a paper bag, so I couldn't spot a "c" long without you or Spike pointing one out with a magnifying glass. So here's how I look at that TLAB chart. My view is that today is pivotal. The STOs all say that TLAB hasn't bottomed here, as well as the s~h~s setup that you pointed out. I see $9.80 or lower as the bottom for the lab. But today the chart could reverse, (IMO), if TLAB is able to jump up off the current $10.50 support. I would have to wait for the STOs to confirm the bottom for me.

http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/633/chart19kx.gif

NB, I just got home and have you checked out what happened to TLAB?

[Runner]

Well shoo Runner lol my head hurts now! lol

"Right side of trade" I agree. The wrong side sucks bilgewater! heh

Does one measure that right side by "Ideally mirrororing" a sector chart? Obviously you (Runner) do. And if someone forced me to answer whether that's smart, I'd be fooling to disagree; cuz it goes against logic ... or at least one side of logic, but there's another side to logic, that I'll express.

Stocks often run opposite to what its sector is doing; sometimes expectedly (sometimes inexplicably). But either way, price action in the chart and reactions to support and resistance are the key to the puzzle. Show me any chart that runs opposite its sector (including the one you've provided in your first question - BBH vs $BTK) and I'm sure there's a S/R price action story to tell. With your 2 examples, Runner, it's clear that BBH is selling harder on the down days, falling through more supports relative to the index. The obvious conclusion that jumps to mind is that it's a dog. But without looking at the longer-term charts for it and doing full analysis on the chart I'm not prepared to try and explain the 'why'. But bottom line, the 'why' is real and it's weaker. Now if a count happens to set up for it, then based on that issue weakness don't you think it presents an arguement that it's one day soon gonna offer a nice short?

Perhaps on a weak $BTK that'll happen, then perhaps the BTK may sudden git bearish unexpectedly. It might be gonna drop for the green or pink C and who knows, it may even fail both of them (remember the weekly profit-taking tag). Should THAT happen, then I'd expect BBH is gonna be a shot duck.

But bottom line to summarize that is that he BIO index isn't gonna save a crappy bio stock that screams "short me" "short me" "I'm a dog" hehe

And residing above ALL of that is the fact that all one can do is find those great r/r setups that put the numbers on your side. Any bias I have for a market or sector is exactly that.....bias. If you eliminate any trade based on sector bias, in the face of a great count, and then the count proves right and bias proves wrong, then you've not only missed a great trade, but if one is stubborn thinking "I should have been right', then you're left befuddled until you're prepared to admit you were wrong to assume anything about the market. Meanwhile the one you've let go cuz it wasn't "in line" with a sector index may prove over the weeks following that you were a knucklehead to presume anything other than what was in the stock's chart in the first place.

The market within a specific issue will do what it wants to do; in the face of broader sector or market bias.

Assume nothing, expect nothing, plan for everything, be positive and decisive.

Thanks fer the thoughts, Runner. It's an interesting debate.

Spike very interesting view you raise. Yes stocks do run opposite of the sector in fact those stocks are known as cockroaches. The question is how long does the cockroach run until it gets hit with some raid?,,lol. Just kidding, yes I feel when the sector is trending you have a better chance of success instead of fighting the sector in general. I’m sure many can find the ace that proves my view wrong. I guess that’s what makes this game so interesting is the numerous ways one can profit from the market.
I’ll follow the BIO stocks for a while and see what happens.

[spikefader]

Spike I think TLAB may be a C play off the daily chart. Nice P/B to support. One thing I was concerned about is the possible formation on a S/H/S on the daily. How do you see the daily on TLAB?

Yep, I would have thought the same, but ....

NB, I just got home and have you checked out what happened to TLAB?

look at it go......LOL nice call!

[New-born baby]

Ew

Yep, I would have thought the same, but ....
look at it go......LOL nice call!

This "C" long stuff--I think I might profit by learning it, don't you?

[Runner]

This "C" long stuff--I think I might profit by learning it, don't you?

NB, things only work when they work and the rest of the time we try it make something work that won’t work and thus try to force it to work and lose money in the process !LOL

Just kidding we ya!

[spikefader]

Re http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=6381 from my thread, HANS setting up here for lovely risk of only 0.7% if you bid S2 and stop under 'c' at say 89.50.

HANS traded down below yesterday's S2 I see. I'm long from today's pivot 91.78. Stop under C is 2.5% risk.

[Runner]

Best with it spike 14 day Volatility is about $9.27 So hope you got that perfect entry!