C long/short spotting - should we have a dedicated thread?

[skiracer]

NB, things only work when they work and the rest of the time we try it make something work that won’t work and thus try to force it to work and lose money in the process !LOL

Just kidding we ya!

Runner,
You're absolutely right on. These things work only when they work. It's a great signal to watch for a good setup but nothing is for sure. We should keep a score on how many work vs fail. And when they fail they usually fail much worse than when they work with any type of setup not just these c longs.

[Runner]

Spike I think RHAT put in one of those C things. I saw it a short a few days ago and looks like day 2 of the c formation

[Runner]

Runner,
You're absolutely right on. These things work only when they work. It's a great signal to watch for a good setup but nothing is for sure. We should keep a score on how many work vs fail. And when they fail they usually fail much worse than when they work with any type of setup not just these c longs.

When ya really think long and hard is it all just an educated guess from the cup of noodles to the flying saucer?? I’ve been only trading one thing as of late and that is pullbacks well a pull back can always pull back more..hehe

[spikefader]

Thanks Runner. Hey ski, that's a great idea. Tracking win probability and average historical win/loss ratio would allow the equity curve calculation (simulator). Once ya get that math expectancy number then you've got more ammo for proof that it's a winning concept. But shoo, I don't no stinkin' calculator! C longs rock dudes. hehe

[Runner]

Spike, thus far the stocks I put on page 2 of your thread are doing well. I think BRCM is getting read for the move with earnings or sumfin. I’ll run the S&P 500 monthly list this weekend and see what might be shaking..

[spikefader]

Spike I think RHAT put in one of those C things. I saw it a short a few days ago and looks like day 2 of the c formation

Great spotting Runner, thanks. I'll do a chart later tonight. Today's action confirms the 'c' at 26.50. I've just finished calculating potential entry points and corresponding risk reward, and the pivot buy at 28.12 leaves 5.7% risk if you put your stop C. S1 of 27.68 leaves 4.2% risk. S2 of 27.02 lays 1.9% risk, so S2 looks like a great r/r play. I've set an alarm for it anyway. On the chart, I really like that breakaway gap down there in September on volume and look at the large three-year weekly cup and handle (handle is this current ABC correction). I don't think 34.00 is out of the question, which is 26% profit target and a r/r of 13.6 with that S2 buy limit location. I think that's an awesome trade plan right there. Thanks for the heads-up.

[Runner]

I’ll keep my eyes open spike and pass them on to ya for a complete C wave check up. I was thinking confirmation was in today… Until then have a cheerful day!!

Ruunner signing over and out!!

[spikefader]

Long here 16.46 just under pivot.
Risk with 2% stop (under 'c') to target impulses to +25% area. r/r of 12.5 pretty good.

Into the 1 today

[spikefader]

This "C" long stuff--I think I might profit by learning it, don't you?

lol

[skiracer]

Thanks Runner. Hey ski, that's a great idea. Tracking win probability and average historical win/loss ratio would allow the equity curve calculation (simulator). Once ya get that math expectancy number then you've got more ammo for proof that it's a winning concept. But shoo, I don't no stinkin' calculator! C longs rock dudes. hehe

I'm not knocking the specific setup but there are a lot of variables involved. Like any setup you follow there will be a percentage that fail. Like Bulkowski has percentages on all of his chart paterns which give a better idea of what to expect from them if they are truly what he explains them as. I just thought it would be neat to follow a few dozen c long setups to get an idea of the number of positive outcomes vs failures. Like if you tracked the next 48 of them that fulfilled your analysis of what you're looking for specifically to see how many of them broke to the upside vs the number that didn't and how many held that break to the upside. What % gain off of a "c" down could you expect from the setup. If you could place a number or length on the "c" down what could you expect the breakout up to produce to call it a decent breakout off the c down. Might be better to just produce a list of the next 25 or 30 c long setups and see how they perform over the next couple of weeks. Another thing is how long do they get to either break up or fail after diagnosed as a c long. You would have to provide some parameters to judge them within. Just thought it would be interesting.

[spikefader]

Yep, all good thoughts there ski.

[Runner]

Spike, I have a simple question to ask you. From signal of C entry what is the average time that position is open?

[spikefader]

Spike, I have a simple question to ask you. From signal of C entry what is the average time that position is open?

Oh goodie! I like easy questions heh

If you consider stop outs, failed patterns exits, time-wasting wash and the added subwave variable I'd estimate the average time is a week. If you don't include the variables and want the average of that perfect 5 wave move off a 'c' then it's I think 3 weeks is a fair answer.

[Runner]

Oh goodie! I like easy questions heh

If you consider stop outs, failed patterns exits, time-wasting wash and the added subwave variable I'd estimate the average time is a week. If you don't include the variables and want the average of that perfect 5 wave move off a 'c' then it's I think 3 weeks is a fair answer.

Ok Spike, ya making me scratch my head. Given both situations you mentioned what is average time in position? Now here is an added twist. What also is average gain/loss rate?

Since inception of the C push what is the hit rate. Example 50 trades open 32 wins and 18 losses.

[spikefader]

Shoo Runner. You're makin' me scratch my head! lol What point are you building up to make this time? Just spit it out and let's debate it hehehe