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Today I sold COH at 30.21. That's a 17% gain in only 4 months over my (split-adjusted) purchase price of 25.745. Can you do that? You? You? YOU???
I am HUGE!! I am easily the best stock picker on the planet. No one can compare to me. Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. Build a big bronze glistening statue of me which accentuates my 19" biceps and sinewy pectorals.
Did I also mention how I won HUGE betting college football in Las Vegas? You? You?? YOU???
Did I also tell you about how I did playing my golf tournament in Las Vegas?? Ummm...why don't we forget about that part.
Anyway, this means that there will another HUGE winner generated soon. As soon as I can, I will re-run my model and pick another most excellent profitable stock winner.
I am HUGE!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
===============================================
Posted: 26 Sep 2003 10:56 am Post subject: COH
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$$$MR. MARKET$$$ Loves COH
by: mr_market63 (43/M)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 06/09/03 02:56 pm
Msg: 1786 of 2505
When I was in high school, there was a kid who knew everything there
was to know about wrestling. We called him Coach. Everyone called
him Coach with the exception of our freshman football coach, who
thought that his name was Coats. To right that egregious error, I
bought stock in Coach (COH) today at $51.49. I will sell it in 4 to 6
weeks at $59.84. Here's why I like COH:
Coach, Inc. is a designer, producer and marketer of high-quality,
modern, American classic accessories that complement the diverse
lifestyles of discerning women and men. Frugal shoppers are
apparently allowing themselves to splurge on accessories, as COH has
been a consistent performer during this tough time for retailers. The
company has enjoyed an excellent track record of surpassing Wall
Street's quarterly estimates, and analysts have responded by boosting
its earnings estimates for this year by about 9 cents in three months
and for next year by approximately 18 cents. COH can continue to buck
the retail trends due to improving metrics, expanded assortments and
a continued intense focus on the customer. The stock has now gained
59 percent since the end of 2002. The stock is up 205% in the last
52 weeks, showing great price momentum.
The company has long been known for its classic, if somewhat staid,
quality leather goods. But shoppers who walk into a Coach store today
find a wide array of product offerings in various colors, fabrics and
styles,analysts say. Alright alright, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ doesn't know
squat about handbags. What do women put in those things anyway?
Coach competes with high-end retailers such as Gucci and Louis
Vuitton, as well as more moderately priced accessory makers like
Dooney & Burke, Kenneth Cole and Nine West. A midsize Vuitton bag
costs about $1,300 while a midsize Coach bag will set you back about
$250. $1,300 for a pocketbook? Fwut? If my wife spent $1,300 on a
pocketbook, I'd spend the next month in Vegas.
In Japan, where the firm opened a 5,400-square-foot store in Tokyo's
vibrant Ginza district last June, Coach estimates it has a 2% to 3%
share. The Japanese have a penchant for luxury labels, making the
country a perfect fit for Coach to expand into. In January 2001 the
firm bought the remaining 15% outside distributor rights from J.
Osawa & Co. to gain full control of its brand in Japan. If they
grow their Japanese market to the 16%, they have in the US, they'll
really show a strong uptick in sales and profits. Chief Financial
Officer Mike Devine sounds confident the store will become Coach's
biggest money-maker. He figures the Ginza site could ring up $150
million to $200 million in annual sales vs. about $2 million at most
U.S. stores. Coach has also racked up four straight quarters of
double-digit growth in same-location sales in Japan. With the
weakening dollar, currency translation from the yen can add another
15% to sales and profit growth.
With impressive operating margins and low debt levels, COH should
have no difficulty in funding remaining expansion plans for FY 03 or
its $70 million capital expenditure budget for FY 04. Sales growth is
chugging along at a remarkable 15%, carrying earnings along with it.
The company is pursuing five key strategies to strengthen its
leadership position and build lasting market share. COH is
accelerating new product development and introducing items at a
broader range of prices to attract more stylish consumers to the
franchise; adding 100 U.S. retail stores over the next four to five
years (including 20 in FY 03), bringing its retail store base to at
least 250; expanding its presence in Japan (adding at least 10 new
locations in FY 03), with the intention of doubling market share from
2% to 3% to about 6%; improving operational efficiencies; and
emphasizing new usage occasions for its products.
In January 2003, directors authorized the repurchase of up to $100
million of common stock over three years. Approximately $20 million
of a prior $80 million authorization also remained available. This
is good stuff for shareholders and is indicative of management's
confidence in cash flows.
Indeed, some of the financial barometers are most impressive. Return
on Assets is 25% vs. Industry Average 7%. Return on Equity is 42% vs
Industry Average 12%. Gross margins are 70%....you paid HOW MUCH for
that handbag??
Coach gets about 19% of its sales from abroad. Most of those are in
Japan. But the firm wouldn't mind increasing its global presence.
Devine says it's considering expanding in the U.K., where it has only
two London-based stores.
First Call puts COH at $1.55/share for FY 03. $$$MR. MARKET$$$
thinks they'll easily do $1.74. which at the existing P/E, will take
the stock price to $62.64, well past my sell target. The positive
surprises aren't a first for Coach, having beaten consensus estimates
10 out of 11 quarters since going public in late 2000, according to
earnings tracker First Call.
"We can double our business in the next four to five years," says
Chairman and CEO Lew Frankfort, who says he expects revenue growth to
be at least 15% a year and earnings growth to be "materially higher"
than that. And while Coach has an 18% share of the U.S. luxury-goods
market, Frankfort says he can boost that to 30% in the next few
years. I'd like to have some of what this guy is smoking, but you
gotta love his optimism. Frankfort knows that Coach's future depends
on its ability to maintain an image as an accessible-luxury brand.
But he's not worried in the least: "I say to skeptics: Stand by and
watch. Our customer is telling us that she likes Coach more than
ever, and she's buying at higher levels more often than ever before."
If he's right, the stock should remain a top performer for the long
term. What do I know, I still have the same wallet in my pocket
that I've had for 10 years. It's all worn out and stuff.
At the end of April, Frankfort said, "Our strong third quarter sales
reflect sustained momentum and market share gains in all channels of
our business. These results again demonstrate the vitality of Coach
and speak to our unique proposition, as America's leading accessible
luxury accessories brand. Our distinctive and stylish products are
extremely well made from superior materials and offer exceptional
value, which resonates well with consumers. Further, our growth in
profitability evidences our ability to drive continued margin
improvement and leverage our expense base." "Our robust business this
quarter was driven by well-received spring offerings, continuing the
very strong trend we have seen over the last several periods. In US
retail, our assortment drew an enthusiastic response from consumers,
resulting in higher conversion; while increased traffic in our stores
reflected the brand's strength. We're particularly pleased with the
performance of mini-Signature, which has broadened our logo offering.
In addition, we're also pleased with last month's successful
introduction of Hamptons Weekend - a lightweight and functional group
of sporty totes, which gives consumers a colorful new option from
Coach for active everyday usage. In our indirect segment, we saw
momentum continuing in US department stores also driven by fashion
innovation.
"Our results in Japan were also extremely strong, as comparable
locations again posted double-digit sales gains, and our new shops,
led by the Ginza flagship, performed very well. In addition, just
last week, we opened our second Japanese flagship store, located in
the Shibuya section of Tokyo, to an enthusiastic response. This 7,300
square foot store is our largest location in the world. We expect
this flagship to raise Coach's appeal with the younger and more
stylish Japanese consumer."
Geeeez...this guy likes to yak. But I guess he likes handbags, too.
I know that the Road Warriors and KISS were really popular in Japan,
so I gotta think these guys have pretty good taste.
I am HUGE!!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
I am HUGE!! I am easily the best stock picker on the planet. No one can compare to me. Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. Build a big bronze glistening statue of me which accentuates my 19" biceps and sinewy pectorals.
Did I also mention how I won HUGE betting college football in Las Vegas? You? You?? YOU???
Did I also tell you about how I did playing my golf tournament in Las Vegas?? Ummm...why don't we forget about that part.
Anyway, this means that there will another HUGE winner generated soon. As soon as I can, I will re-run my model and pick another most excellent profitable stock winner.
I am HUGE!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
===============================================
Posted: 26 Sep 2003 10:56 am Post subject: COH
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$$$MR. MARKET$$$ Loves COH
by: mr_market63 (43/M)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 06/09/03 02:56 pm
Msg: 1786 of 2505
When I was in high school, there was a kid who knew everything there
was to know about wrestling. We called him Coach. Everyone called
him Coach with the exception of our freshman football coach, who
thought that his name was Coats. To right that egregious error, I
bought stock in Coach (COH) today at $51.49. I will sell it in 4 to 6
weeks at $59.84. Here's why I like COH:
Coach, Inc. is a designer, producer and marketer of high-quality,
modern, American classic accessories that complement the diverse
lifestyles of discerning women and men. Frugal shoppers are
apparently allowing themselves to splurge on accessories, as COH has
been a consistent performer during this tough time for retailers. The
company has enjoyed an excellent track record of surpassing Wall
Street's quarterly estimates, and analysts have responded by boosting
its earnings estimates for this year by about 9 cents in three months
and for next year by approximately 18 cents. COH can continue to buck
the retail trends due to improving metrics, expanded assortments and
a continued intense focus on the customer. The stock has now gained
59 percent since the end of 2002. The stock is up 205% in the last
52 weeks, showing great price momentum.
The company has long been known for its classic, if somewhat staid,
quality leather goods. But shoppers who walk into a Coach store today
find a wide array of product offerings in various colors, fabrics and
styles,analysts say. Alright alright, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ doesn't know
squat about handbags. What do women put in those things anyway?
Coach competes with high-end retailers such as Gucci and Louis
Vuitton, as well as more moderately priced accessory makers like
Dooney & Burke, Kenneth Cole and Nine West. A midsize Vuitton bag
costs about $1,300 while a midsize Coach bag will set you back about
$250. $1,300 for a pocketbook? Fwut? If my wife spent $1,300 on a
pocketbook, I'd spend the next month in Vegas.
In Japan, where the firm opened a 5,400-square-foot store in Tokyo's
vibrant Ginza district last June, Coach estimates it has a 2% to 3%
share. The Japanese have a penchant for luxury labels, making the
country a perfect fit for Coach to expand into. In January 2001 the
firm bought the remaining 15% outside distributor rights from J.
Osawa & Co. to gain full control of its brand in Japan. If they
grow their Japanese market to the 16%, they have in the US, they'll
really show a strong uptick in sales and profits. Chief Financial
Officer Mike Devine sounds confident the store will become Coach's
biggest money-maker. He figures the Ginza site could ring up $150
million to $200 million in annual sales vs. about $2 million at most
U.S. stores. Coach has also racked up four straight quarters of
double-digit growth in same-location sales in Japan. With the
weakening dollar, currency translation from the yen can add another
15% to sales and profit growth.
With impressive operating margins and low debt levels, COH should
have no difficulty in funding remaining expansion plans for FY 03 or
its $70 million capital expenditure budget for FY 04. Sales growth is
chugging along at a remarkable 15%, carrying earnings along with it.
The company is pursuing five key strategies to strengthen its
leadership position and build lasting market share. COH is
accelerating new product development and introducing items at a
broader range of prices to attract more stylish consumers to the
franchise; adding 100 U.S. retail stores over the next four to five
years (including 20 in FY 03), bringing its retail store base to at
least 250; expanding its presence in Japan (adding at least 10 new
locations in FY 03), with the intention of doubling market share from
2% to 3% to about 6%; improving operational efficiencies; and
emphasizing new usage occasions for its products.
In January 2003, directors authorized the repurchase of up to $100
million of common stock over three years. Approximately $20 million
of a prior $80 million authorization also remained available. This
is good stuff for shareholders and is indicative of management's
confidence in cash flows.
Indeed, some of the financial barometers are most impressive. Return
on Assets is 25% vs. Industry Average 7%. Return on Equity is 42% vs
Industry Average 12%. Gross margins are 70%....you paid HOW MUCH for
that handbag??
Coach gets about 19% of its sales from abroad. Most of those are in
Japan. But the firm wouldn't mind increasing its global presence.
Devine says it's considering expanding in the U.K., where it has only
two London-based stores.
First Call puts COH at $1.55/share for FY 03. $$$MR. MARKET$$$
thinks they'll easily do $1.74. which at the existing P/E, will take
the stock price to $62.64, well past my sell target. The positive
surprises aren't a first for Coach, having beaten consensus estimates
10 out of 11 quarters since going public in late 2000, according to
earnings tracker First Call.
"We can double our business in the next four to five years," says
Chairman and CEO Lew Frankfort, who says he expects revenue growth to
be at least 15% a year and earnings growth to be "materially higher"
than that. And while Coach has an 18% share of the U.S. luxury-goods
market, Frankfort says he can boost that to 30% in the next few
years. I'd like to have some of what this guy is smoking, but you
gotta love his optimism. Frankfort knows that Coach's future depends
on its ability to maintain an image as an accessible-luxury brand.
But he's not worried in the least: "I say to skeptics: Stand by and
watch. Our customer is telling us that she likes Coach more than
ever, and she's buying at higher levels more often than ever before."
If he's right, the stock should remain a top performer for the long
term. What do I know, I still have the same wallet in my pocket
that I've had for 10 years. It's all worn out and stuff.
At the end of April, Frankfort said, "Our strong third quarter sales
reflect sustained momentum and market share gains in all channels of
our business. These results again demonstrate the vitality of Coach
and speak to our unique proposition, as America's leading accessible
luxury accessories brand. Our distinctive and stylish products are
extremely well made from superior materials and offer exceptional
value, which resonates well with consumers. Further, our growth in
profitability evidences our ability to drive continued margin
improvement and leverage our expense base." "Our robust business this
quarter was driven by well-received spring offerings, continuing the
very strong trend we have seen over the last several periods. In US
retail, our assortment drew an enthusiastic response from consumers,
resulting in higher conversion; while increased traffic in our stores
reflected the brand's strength. We're particularly pleased with the
performance of mini-Signature, which has broadened our logo offering.
In addition, we're also pleased with last month's successful
introduction of Hamptons Weekend - a lightweight and functional group
of sporty totes, which gives consumers a colorful new option from
Coach for active everyday usage. In our indirect segment, we saw
momentum continuing in US department stores also driven by fashion
innovation.
"Our results in Japan were also extremely strong, as comparable
locations again posted double-digit sales gains, and our new shops,
led by the Ginza flagship, performed very well. In addition, just
last week, we opened our second Japanese flagship store, located in
the Shibuya section of Tokyo, to an enthusiastic response. This 7,300
square foot store is our largest location in the world. We expect
this flagship to raise Coach's appeal with the younger and more
stylish Japanese consumer."
Geeeez...this guy likes to yak. But I guess he likes handbags, too.
I know that the Road Warriors and KISS were really popular in Japan,
so I gotta think these guys have pretty good taste.
I am HUGE!!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
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