Treasury yield curve upside down

[mimo_100]

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury yield curve turned completely upside down Friday, pushing the 2-year yield above the yields of both the 10-year and 30-year instruments, intensifying a debate over whether the inversion signals a looming recession.

Any comments?

I believe that non-US purchases of the longer bonds has driven those yields down. The new 30 year bond may also have attracted some of the short term money, driving the 3 mo and 6 mo and two year yields higher.

Tim

[New-born baby]

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury yield curve turned completely upside down Friday, pushing the 2-year yield above the yields of both the 10-year and 30-year instruments, intensifying a debate over whether the inversion signals a looming recession.

Any comments?

I believe that non-US purchases of the longer bonds has driven those yields down. The new 30 year bond may also have attracted some of the short term money, driving the 3 mo and 6 mo and two year yields higher.

Tim

The inverted yield curve has accurately predicted recession 5 of the last 9 times it has inverted. This is #10. It is either going to be a 50% indicator or a 60% indicator here soon. Right now it is a 55%er. "Maybe it will, maybe it won't."

[mimo_100]

The inverted yield curve has accurately predicted recession 5 of the last 9 times it has inverted. This is #10. It is either going to be a 50% indicator or a 60% indicator here soon. Right now it is a 55%er. "Maybe it will, maybe it won't."

Thanks for the stats.

We will know in 9 months or so.

Tim