Mining the IBD 100, striking gold

[IIC]

IIC,

Thank you for the clarification of the # of industry group. You are correct, it is 197, not 147. Yes, the holy grail... that's what I want. I chose the strongest of the strong... (6, by the way, not 5) I thought I outlined the criteria pretty well. What makes you say that any of the IBD stocks would do the same? This would be valuable information because IBD uses a rating system to determine the 100. I used that same rating system to narrow down the 100 to "the 6". If the rating system is bogus, then you are right, but I am testing the validity of their rating system. This is my fault... my first assupmtion was that their rating system worked... I should be first testing that assumption before proceeding with this experiement. But, this is only pertinent if what you say is true, so please explain how any of the 100 stocks would give me similar results.

After the experiemnt is tested, we will know if this is a viable investing system, or not. It may not be the holy grail that I am looking for, but MIGHT prove to be a statistically profitable system. I really appreciate your guidance. I think we can offer one another some ideas of finding that "holy grail" investing scheme. What are your ideas?

OK...we shall wait and see I guess...But, I think even Bill O'Neil would say that any...including his own parameters...may not last for 8 weeks. Ever notice how a stock can be rated # 1 in the IBD 100 one week and be off the list the following week? CYD is a "Classic" example...And in my own mind I take credit for that happening...I warned IBD about it's faults that last week...Maybe they listened...And Maybe they didn't...Guess we'll never know because they don't respond to my emails...But from a Canslim perspective IBD was late to the party on the demise of CYD...IMO they did not even come close to following True CS on it...But that could become a very long story.

Come to the Mr. Market Convention...I'm sure I can talk all weekend about IBD...NO RECORDERS ALLOWED...lol

[peanuts]

Day 9, week 2

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) -2.17% $5,969.35

ASVI -0.64
ERS -0.51
NWRE -0.94
SNDK -1.92
WDC -0.45
WSO +0.19

WEEK 2 RESULTS:

Total portfolio value gain / (loss) to date: ($30.64)
Total portfolio percentage gain / (loss) to date: (0.51%)
Largest individual return to date: ERS, 7.11%
Lowest individual return to date: WDC, (6.91%)

[Runner]

Peanuts, I had WDC on my stalk list last week I think and have since dropped it. I don’t like how the price has gotten loose.

[Runner]

Peanuts here is my 2Cents on those few stocks you have here.

ASVI- looks good IMO and in a strong group. This pullback might attract new buyers. Only thing I don’t like about the chart is that wide range bar a few days ago.
ERS-looks good down to last swing low
NWRE-I don’t like it
SNDK-short term down trend has been established and is in a make it or break spot here IMO.
WSO- looks good to me

[IIC]

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) -2.17% $5,969.35

ASVI -0.64
ERS -0.51
NWRE -0.94
SNDK -1.92
WDC -0.45
WSO +0.19

WEEK 2 RESULTS:

Total portfolio value gain / (loss) to date: ($30.64)
Total portfolio percentage gain / (loss) to date: (0.51%)
Largest individual return to date: ERS, 7.11%
Lowest individual return to date: WDC, (6.91%)

Is it only Week 2 Day 9???...Seems like Week 9 Day 2

I really don't want to discourage you...I personally try new tests all the time...But I have a gut feeling that this one isn't gonna work.

Let me tell you why...There comes a time when a pick is just not gonna cut it...It may come 1 min after you buy it...it may come 5 years after you buy it. You need to be FLEXIBLE...Things can change with one news item...one report...One whatever...In fact it can change for reasons you will never realize.

I know Ernie holds till they make him 15%...And 80 winners is pretty difficult to argue with...But IMO holding a loooooong time is not what you are looking for...Right?...8 weeks is not a long time to most people...Although it is to me...I'd suggest you set up your parameters but also set up a point where you bail...Doesn't even have to be price based...it may be that it no longer meets your parameters...so you are out...I don't know...But as I said previously...Your parameters are not going to work on strict 8 week holds 6x a year yr in yr out...Best, Doug(IIC)

[peanuts]

day 10, week 3

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) -1.18% $5,898.73

ASVI -1.48
ERS +0.55
NWRE -0.63
SNDK -0.55
WDC -0.14
WSO -0.89

[peanuts]

Day 11, Week 3

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) -4.84% $5,613.43

ASVI -0.07
ERS -2.89
NWRE -0.10
SNDK -2.23
WDC -1.68
WSO -1.58

What a crappy day!!!

[peanuts]

Day 12, Week 3

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) -2.86% $5,452.69

ASVI +0.26
ERS -0.87
NWRE -0.64
SNDK -2.55
WDC -0.95
WSO -1.04

[peanuts]

Day 13, Week 3

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +0.65% $5,488.23

ASVI -0.53
ERS +1.02
NWRE +0.68
SNDK -0.42
WDC -0.49
WSO +0.02

[peanuts]

Day 14, Week 3, end of week results

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +0.39% $5,509.76

ASVI -0.41
ERS -0.55
NWRE +1.66
SNDK -0.47
WDC -0.45
WSO +1.06

WEEK 3 RESULTS:

Total portfolio value gain / (loss) to date: ($490.24)
Total portfolio percentage gain / (loss) to date: (8.17 %)
Largest individual return to date: NWRE, (1.82 %)
Lowest individual return to date: WDC, (22.25 %)



I thought it would be nicer of me to not bore everyone with daily postings, so from now on, I'll post the results at the end of each week. I am having trouble viewing the IBD and CANSLIM screens from IBD, so I cannot post them here until I can get that taken care of.

Can anyone draw any kind of information about the results so far? Besides the usual "IBD sucks" BS

[IIC]

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +0.39% $5,509.76

ASVI -0.41
ERS -0.55
NWRE +1.66
SNDK -0.47
WDC -0.45
WSO +1.06

WEEK 3 RESULTS:

Total portfolio value gain / (loss) to date: ($490.24)
Total portfolio percentage gain / (loss) to date: (8.17 %)
Largest individual return to date: NWRE, (1.82 %)
Lowest individual return to date: WDC, (22.25 %)



I thought it would be nicer of me to not bore everyone with daily postings, so from now on, I'll post the results at the end of each week. I am having trouble viewing the IBD and CANSLIM screens from IBD, so I cannot post them here until I can get that taken care of.

Can anyone draw any kind of information about the results so far? Besides the usual "IBD sucks" BS

I have a few comments...but I'll post them later...And I promise to be constructive.

But anyway...Sounds like you are thinking about posting some of the actual screens from IBD. I know how to post the DailyGraphs charts but I suggest you don't do it. Not sure if you realize this but they go after copyright infringement...I'm serious as I know many website owners who have either received cease and desist orders and/or had actual lawsuits filed against them. I'm aware of one site owner who is actually planning to fight them on this...I don't know the owner personally but he's headed for financial ruin IMO.

Best, Doug(IIC)

[peanuts]

wait, Doug

But anyway...Sounds like you are thinking about posting some of the actual screens from IBD. I know how to post the DailyGraphs charts but I suggest you don't do it. Not sure if you realize this but they go after copyright infringement...

Doug, I should clarify that I wanted to post the results of my reducing screens of the IBD 100... not the IBD 100 or the CANSLIM select lists themselves... only the results of my screen of them. I want no trouble from O'Neil.

I look forward to the other comments

[Lyehopper]

I look forward to the other comments

IBD sucks....

If you want some good stock picks, visit BillyJoe's POTW thread each week.... oh yeah!.... And feel free to enter a pick yourself PEANUT....

[IIC]

OK...I like high RS stocks myself. I pay no attention to IBD's EPS ranking as I don't care what a stock did 3-5 years ago...I care about what it will do tomorrow. True... they weight the EPS somehow, but IMO they should use recent EPS and projections.

The SMR ranking...Well, what is good in one industry may not be good in another...I also don't like ROE...Some may be very leveraged and some not. I know you didn't use that but I thought I'd throw that in.

PE's...I guess I'd have to agree w/ WON...Not that important except for Value Investors....But I think they are looking for a lot less than 50...Like maybe 10.

CANSLIM is a Momentum system...We have been in a range (Naz) since mid January...So these MoMo stocks have not done much.

As far as groups...I like to look for movers in moving groups...But they don't have to be in the Top 20...Look for groups that are moving; e.g. From 150 to 110 to 80 to 60...Before the world knows about them.

I'd suggest that you set up multiple lists based on different parameters and follow them...Try to see which ones do well under different market conditions.

Finally...I'd like to say that WON probably did very well over the years...I have no reason to doubt that...But CANSLIM is outdated in the "Strict" sense...Who cares what 50-90 years proves...The markets have changed...Volatility, Options, Institutions, Program Trading and other influences...In fact you can even see the desperation changes WON tries to tout..."A Breakout Doesn't Necessarily Have To Have Volume"...IBD last October...What the heck is he talking about???...You would never hear Mr. Breakout say something like that...Or, 1.7% vs. 2.0%...Hey!!!...I thought the market never changed???...LOL

But I will admit that I use some of their info/data...But it just isn't gospel.

Good Luck...Doug(IIC)

[billyjoe]

Doug,
Your reply reminded me that I've been looking for a source that lists acceptable ranges for SMR ,ROE ,PE, etc. by industry. For instance I never could understand how IBD could compare banking industry earnings and ROE with such totally different sectors such as women's clothing or computer internet advertising. There must be published guidelines but I haven't been able to find any. Thanks for any information.

billyjoe