Mining the IBD 100, striking gold

[peanuts]

this week's scan results

BOOM
CHRW

[skiracer]

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +2.18% $6,174.91

ASVI +0.76
ERS +1.59
NWRE -0.03
SNDK +1.94
WDC +0.32
WSO -1.27

WEEK 5 RESULTS:

Total portfolio value gain / (loss) to date: $174.92
Total portfolio percentage gain / (loss) to date: 2.92 %
Largest individual return to date: ERS, 30.38 %
Lowest individual return to date: WDC, (20.64 %)



Finally, 5 weeks and it's coming out of the red. Could this also indicate an overall market trend?

Just one question. If you had taken that $6000 an picked one or two positions initially and timed the entry properly with well placed stops, which you have to honor regardless of emotions, and swing traded them accordingly getting out after 3-7 days at your target or just give each position 5 days an exit regardless of the gain or loss and take another position after that exit do you think you would have done better than 2.18 %. After 5 weeks I don't think the 2.18 % is worth it to wait it out that long for that amount. I think you can do much better preparing a daily watchlist of stocks in stronger trends either up or down and taking positions in them leaving your options open to do as you please with your money at any time. 2.18% of $6000 comes to $130.00 before taking out the commissions which at say $7.50 each way is $15 x 6 = $90.00. $130 - $90 - $40.00 profit over 5 wks. on risking $6000 of your capital. Not to say that next week it could very well be in the red.

[peanuts]

Hi Skiracer,

Just one question. If you had taken that $6000 an picked one or two positions initially and timed the entry properly with well placed stops, which you have to honor regardless of emotions, and swing traded them accordingly getting out after 3-7 days at your target or just give each position 5 days an exit regardless of the gain or loss do you think you would have done better than 2.18 %. After 5 weeks I don't think the 2.18 % is worth it.

I do not doubt that the return would have been much greater had the purpose been to maximize gains in the manner which you prescribe. But which one of these picks should I have chosen as the stock to trade? I will be doing post mortem analysis on the results over 2 months. Maybe the analysis will help me to find the stock that will fit best to your trading program, maybe not. Look at this thread as supportive evidence for a future program. Maybe that future program will be more like your suggestion... but this thread is just a way to narrow down the IBD for a stock to trade in that future program...

Of course, this could just be a big waste of my time, and results of any real substance or significance may or may not come of this research. But, who knows until it is done?

At a later date, once this data gathering experiment is done and fully analyzed, I will create another thread to discuss the trading strategy which would best fit the trends seen in my experiment. Unfortunately, all I have to look at is in the past. I cannot foresee the future action of these stocks, so I cannot begin to form a trading strategy.

I really look forward to your positive ideas for developing a trading program once that thread is created. We have 3 weeks until this portfolio is closed. You have all the results to this point. Let me know if you need more information.

BTW: That was one of the most beautifully constructed long sentences I have had the pleasure of reading in a long time. You forgot the question mark at the end, however.

[IIC]

Let's let our imaginations run wild and pretend we are Canslimmers and that we bot all these stocks at the prices you listed:

Symbol / Shares / Price Per Share
ASVI / 30.7125 / $32.56
ERS / 51.1509 / $19.55
NWRE / 39.6040 / $25.25
SNDK / 17.4246 / $57.39
WDC / 41.3565 / $24.18
WSO / 14.573 / $68.62

How would we have done so far?

Well, since we would sell if our stocks fell 8% below our purchase point our current portfolio would consist of WSO + 3.4%...We would have sold all the others when they dropped 8%....That would leave us at an overall -6.1%...exluding commissions.

So Mr. Market has 81 winners in a row...Now you know why I gave up CANSLIM when I had 81 -8% trades in a row

[peanuts]

this is certainly a valid point

Let's let our imaginations run wild and pretend we are Canslimmers and that we bot all these stocks at the prices you listed:

Symbol / Shares / Price Per Share
ASVI / 30.7125 / $32.56
ERS / 51.1509 / $19.55
NWRE / 39.6040 / $25.25
SNDK / 17.4246 / $57.39
WDC / 41.3565 / $24.18
WSO / 14.573 / $68.62

How would we have done so far?

Well, since we would sell if our stocks fell 8% below our purchase point our current portfolio would consist of WSO + 3.4%...We would have sold all the others when they dropped 8%....That would leave us at an overall -6.1%...exluding commissions.

So Mr. Market has 81 winners in a row...Now you know why I gave up CANSLIM when I had 81 -8% trades in a row

Doug,

yes, if we followed IBD trading rules on this, you are right. This is an important point which you have made. Following IBD trading rules gets you out of stocks at -8% many of the times. I wonder what kind of results would come from the contrarian point of view: "double your position when it reaches -8%"... what would be the value of the portfolio then?

It's funny, they give you all these trading rules and then give you stocks that will fit into the negative side of these trading rules (such as stop losses, and head and shoulders) It's almost like they take us for fools. Like they are saying, "buy this stock, and it will go up" but then they finish the sentence in their minds with " after it goes down 9% and you are out because you followed our "trading rules" ." Amazing- they must make a lot of money from dummies.

Mr. Market knows what he is doing.

[skiracer]

I do not doubt that the return would have been much greater had the purpose been to maximize gains in the manner which you prescribe. But which one of these picks should I have chosen as the stock to trade? I will be doing post mortem analysis on the results over 2 months. Maybe the analysis will help me to find the stock that will fit best to your trading program, maybe not. Look at this thread as supportive evidence for a future program. Maybe that future program will be more like your suggestion... but this thread is just a way to narrow down the IBD for a stock to trade in that future program...

Of course, this could just be a big waste of my time, and results of any real substance or significance may or may not come of this research. But, who knows until it is done?

At a later date, once this data gathering experiment is done and fully analyzed, I will create another thread to discuss the trading strategy which would best fit the trends seen in my experiment. Unfortunately, all I have to look at is in the past. I cannot foresee the future action of these stocks, so I cannot begin to form a trading strategy.

I really look forward to your positive ideas for developing a trading program once that thread is created. We have 3 weeks until this portfolio is closed. You have all the results to this point. Let me know if you need more information.

BTW: That was one of the most beautifully constructed long sentences I have had the pleasure of reading in a long time. You forgot the question mark at the end, however.

I left the ? mark out as a test of your proof-reading skills. Just kidding not really. My mistake. My opinion is only meant in the most positive way. Disagreement is best when taken in a positive and constructive fashion. If everyone agreed with you all the time you would never think to possibly do things another way. My discipline, strategies, and plan are much different than what you are trying to accompolish or prove in this exercise. I believe you are wasting your time with this over the long run, but that is based on my own personal trading discipline and how I feel about maximizing my opportunities with the capital I have available to trade. With me it all boils down to money utilization. Why have capital tied up in anything that isn't productive and mazimizing the opportunity to the utmost. Now you are never going to realize full capacity maximization of your capital all the time but the idea is to try to get as close to that as possible an at the same time be flexible enough to move that capital in an out of any situation (trade or position) as you see fit to realize those goals. Look at this exercise very closely and be completely honest with yourself. Do you feel that your are doing that with that $6000. If the answer is yes then continue on with it and develope it into a discipline and plan. I don't think that you have considered it in the manner that I have presented it to you. I think that you are looking for decent setups and plays that will appreciate and make some gains but not in the way that I have spoken of regarding maximizing the use of your money and time. Time is the one commodity that you are running out of and cannot replace or replenish. Maximizing your time and money. Think about that and the 2.18 % for the 5 weeks of this exercise to date. Here is an example that is the only way I have of presenting it clearly. It is not meant as a boast or egocentric or anything other than the truth. Jim Smith posts something on his thread on this forum about Cisco (CSCO) March $20 call options at .15 that is news to me. I look at them an like the chart and play. I take a position and double my initial investment. That March $20 call expires and I take a look at the April $22.50 calls which were selling at $.15 bid at the time. I like CSCO to go to $23 like Jim says and end up with 500 contracts at between .15 and .20. Cost of $7500. In 3 days CSCO goes up to $21.85 or so and the calls appreciate to .30 bid and .35 asked. I sell at $.30 and make over $5000 while your waiting on those 6 stocks to something over 5 weeks to make $40. Now I'm not trying to tell you what to do with your money but this is a forum and an exchange of ideas so I'm just trying to present an alternative line of thought about mazimizing your time an opportunities with whatever capital you have to use.
What you have to concentrate on is finding 1 stock out of many that will give the maximum return on your capital over a prescribed time period. That is called developing a plan an a discipline. It should be something that will maximize all of your resources, both time and money. Take a look at $$MM$$. Have you noticed that he picks one stock out of hundreds and places a time limit of 5/6 weeks to gain a prescribed amount, usually 15%, per trade. That's a well thought out, planned, maximized strategy that utilizes all of his resources to 100% of his benefit. Your strategy doesn't have to be like his but the ingredients all have to be the same to win.

[peanuts]

week 6, day 24

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +5.81% $6,393.72

ASVI +0.51
ERS +2.76
NWRE +1.94
SNDK +0.20
WDC -0.19
WSO -0.72

[peanuts]

week 6, day 25

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +0.96% $6,455.01

ASVI +1.21
ERS +0.65
NWRE +0.25
SNDK -0.76
WDC -0.33
WSO +0.54

[peanuts]

week 6, day 26

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +4.25% $6,729.51

ASVI +1.16
ERS +2.69
NWRE +0.78
SNDK +1.69
WDC +0.68
WSO +0.88

[peanuts]

week 6, day 27

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +0.00% $6,729.60

ASVI -0.99
ERS +1.02
NWRE -0.53
SNDK -0.09
WDC +0.43
WSO -1.16

[skiracer]

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) +4.25% $6,729.51

ASVI +1.16
ERS +2.69
NWRE +0.78
SNDK +1.69
WDC +0.68
WSO +0.88

I have to give credit where it's due. You're up almost 5%. I find it very hard to own 5 or 6 stocks at the same time and have them all be up at the same time. Decent at this point. When will you consider taking some off the table.

[peanuts]

week 6, day 28, end of week results

IBD Gold Mine (IBDGM) -4.67% $6,415.62

ASVI -1.04
ERS -5.01
NWRE +0.17
SNDK -1.52
WDC -0.35
WSO +0.58

WEEK 6 RESULTS:

Total portfolio value gain / (loss) to date: $415.63
Total portfolio percentage gain / (loss) to date: 6.93 %
Largest individual return to date: ERS, 41.18 %
Lowest individual return to date: WDC, (19.64 %)

[peanuts]

this week's screen results

BOOM
CHRW
JOSB

[peanuts]

hi skiracer

I have to give credit where it's due. You're up almost 5%. I find it very hard to own 5 or 6 stocks at the same time and have them all be up at the same time. Decent at this point. When will you consider taking some off the table.

I can't take credit for it. IBD just gave me the picks, I put in the screening parameters to get these, that's all- but thank you for noticing. Actually, up to this point, the portfolio is positive 6.93%. I take credit for paying for my subscription to IBD.

Those results you are referring to are only the daily results of Wednesday. For example, think of IBDGM as a company. This company owns 6 subsidiaries: ASVI, ERS, NWRE, SNDK, WDC, & WSO. Those 6 companies are the components of IBDGM and the individual values fluctuate daily, therefore IBDGM's gross value fluctuates daily. On the daily results, I post the percentage change in IBDGM for that day, as well as the gross value of IBDGM. The result of each component is the dollar change value for that particular day for that particular component. The last day of each week I post the IBDGM gain/loss since the beginning as well as the percentage gain/loss. For fun, I post the best and worst performing subsidiaries of IBDGM.

I will exit all positions on March 14, Good Friday. 2 more weeks.

btw: are markets open on Good Friday?

[IIC]

I can't take credit for it. IBD just gave me the picks, I put in the screening parameters to get these, that's all- but thank you for noticing. Actually, up to this point, the portfolio is positive 6.93%. I take credit for paying for my subscription to IBD.

Those results you are referring to are only the daily results of Wednesday. For example, think of IBDGM as a company. This company owns 6 subsidiaries: ASVI, ERS, NWRE, SNDK, WDC, & WSO. Those 6 companies are the components of IBDGM and the individual values fluctuate daily, therefore IBDGM's gross value fluctuates daily. On the daily results, I post the percentage change in IBDGM for that day, as well as the gross value of IBDGM. The result of each component is the dollar change value for that particular day for that particular component. The last day of each week I post the IBDGM gain/loss since the beginning as well as the percentage gain/loss. For fun, I post the best and worst performing subsidiaries of IBDGM.

I will exit all positions on March 14, Good Friday. 2 more weeks.

btw: are markets open on Good Friday?

I think you mean April 14th. But the markets are closed on Good Friday:

http://www.nyse.com/pdfs/tradeday_06.pdf