The Ides of March Top 5

[Rob]

Q-to-Q Growth Comparisons

Here's a graph of the revenue growth of four of the top five over the past twelve quarters. (I could not get quarterly data on BBD.)

The averages are: ASF, 3.07; JLG, 8.45; NEU, 4.97; TS, 8.9.

[gerihearne]

Jlg

Just a Lucky Guess

[jiesen]

Great job with the revenue comparison, Rob! Of course revenues aren't everything, but that's definitely a key piece of the puzzle. Thanks for putting this into a clear perspective for us.

[IIC]

Of the 5 I'd say BBD has the best shot of reaching +15% first.

You mentioned that you like the S & L group the other day....Here is a bank that looks pretty good:

[sisterwin2]

Rob,
Excuse me for being blonde but I am not sure I understand the graft. Like JLG for instance. I am reading it as it swings up and down each quarter, NEU showing more stability. Am I on track with reading the graft or way off?

TY

[New-born baby]

Rob,
Excuse me for being blonde but I am not sure I understand the graft. Like JLG for instance. I am reading it as it swings up and down each quarter, NEU showing more stability. Am I on track with reading the graft or way off?

TY

Rob put up a "graph." "Graft" is corruption, like laundering money in the bank of the Ozarks.

[Lyehopper]

to graft.... or not to graft?

Rob put up a "graph." "Graft" is corruption, like laundering money in the bank of the Ozarks.

When I was a boy my daddy once stuck several small pecan branches on a walnut tree and had a couple of them grow. Would that be considered corruption in Wisconsin?lol

Oh yeah.... I tried it with a wild dogwood.... I tried to graft a pink dogwood sprig onto a wild white dogwood tree.... I couldn't get it to work.... Maybe I should try again. Who here has ever done that?

[gerihearne]

a scientist, too?

When I was a boy my daddy once stuck several small pecan branches on a walnut tree and had a couple of them grow. Would that be considered corruption in Wisconsin?lol

Oh yeah.... I tried it with a wild dogwood.... I tried to graft a pink dogwood sprig onto a wild white dogwood tree.... I couldn't get it to work.... Maybe I should try again. Who here has ever done that?

Lye .. you're a scientist as well ... our own renaissance man! Never tried that, but want to tell you I have a red bud in the front of my city home in Chicago ... It looks pretty when in bloom (pretty soon).

[Rob]

Hope This Helps

Excuse me for being blonde but I am not sure I understand the graft. Like JLG for instance. I am reading it as it swings up and down each quarter, NEU showing more stability. Am I on track with reading the graft or way off?

The graph compares one quarter's revenues with those of the immediately preceding quarter, as opposed to comparing to the same quarter in the previous year. If a company sold $100 million worth of widgets in the first quarter and $120 million worth in the second quarter, it would show 20% revenue growth. Then if it sold only $100 million in the third quarter, that would reflect a negative growth rate of -16.67% ((100-120)/120). As Jiesen correctly pointed out, revenue does not tell the whole story. For example, what good does it do to sell a billion dollars worth of merchandise if it cost you a billion and a half to do it? That's the idea behind some analysts' methods where they focus almost entirely on free cash flow numbers. Nevertheless, increasing revenues from one quarter to the next is always something very attractive in a company--the more the better.

[jiesen]

When I was a boy my daddy once stuck several small pecan branches on a walnut tree and had a couple of them grow. Would that be considered corruption in Wisconsin?lol

Oh yeah.... I tried it with a wild dogwood.... I tried to graft a pink dogwood sprig onto a wild white dogwood tree.... I couldn't get it to work.... Maybe I should try again. Who here has ever done that?

my neighbor has mikan oranges grafted onto his lemon tree. yummy! unfortunately, only the lemons hang over our fence.

but when life gives you lemons, make lemonade, I always say...

hey, that gives me a great idea for a solution to my grape dilemma. I have a Kyoho grape vine growing ever so slowly at about a foot a year, right next to two flourishing vines of the muskat and red seedless variety. I could probably just graft a sprig of the Kyoho onto one or both of the other vines and have Kyohos before you know it! now has anybody done this? I don't want to go and waste a year's worth of growth on this guy for nothing.

[jiesen]

Here are the most excellent 5 stocks I could come up with from the last dump:

ASF BBD JLG NEU TS


I will buy one of these on Monday. Which one do you like?

I love BBD:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060222/nyw084.html?.v=41

that their income rose 80% in 2005 is impressive for a bank in Latin America during these recent tough times for such banks. with the recent string of $$MM successes in the banking sector, I'd think this one would be a likely contender for top two. Though it has been in the top 5 several times before and has been passed over each time...

ASF looks just as good to me-

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=BBD&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=asf

- having risen so quickly as to triple in less than a year, ASF is sure to hit the 15% in closer to 4 weeks than the usual 6. Admittely there will be more risk to such a pick, but I think Administaff has what it takes to keep doing what it's been doing, at least for another month or so... income is doubling every year or two here, and I hear this company's commercials all the time- I'm sure they'll blow away the analyst's numbers next call- every quarter so far has been an upside surprise, and the analysts are constantly revising estimates upwards for these guys:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ASF

JLG and NEU would be my 3&4, as I have issues mainly with the charts on these ones- fundamentally they both look good, especially JLG- but its chart also looks the scariest of them all. Of course a scary chart never stopped $$MM (or me) from buying a fundamentally sound company.

I'm pretty much ignoring TS for now, under the assumption that $$MM isn't going to buy an oil company tomorrow. It does look good on the surface, and everyone else seems to like it- but we'll see...

[Lyehopper]

Lye .. you're a scientist as well ... our own renaissance man! Never tried that, but want to tell you I have a red bud in the front of my city home in Chicago ... It looks pretty when in bloom (pretty soon).

I love Chicago. Mrs Lyehopper and me always go out there to IMTS every other year and stay at the Omni on Michigan Ave. She likes to shop.... I like the Chop House and I always get a HUUUGE pizza from the origional Uno's too. Nothing like that in Bedford County VA....lol

[Rob]

More Food For Thought

Maybe big Ernie has already settled on his pick, maybe not. Whatever the case, here's another reason to like Tenaris. An excerpt from the blog linked above states: "Part of the rise is a consolidation play after Mittal made a $22 billion takeover offer for competitor Arcelor (an offer rejected by Arcelor's management). Part obviously reflects continued price hike expectations on the back of China's growth." (emphasis mine) Also: "Sometimes the market is screaming a message even if no one's listening." Just more food for thought.

[New-born baby]

Another fine mess you've gotten us into Ollie

All I can say about the latest MM top five is "This is another fine mess you've gotten us into, Ollie. These picks are so good that we just can't make up our minds which way to go." Nice work! I like them all; may buy them all; but still I like TS the best!

[df21084]

my neighbor has mikan oranges grafted onto his lemon tree. yummy! unfortunately, only the lemons hang over our fence.

but when life gives you lemons, make lemonade, I always say...

Or ... you could just move the fence.