BBD ==> The Ides of March Winner

[New-born baby]

Imperial Wizard of EW

NB,
Why wouldn't you pick up a book on the topic or there's hundreds of sites where you can take several online seminars of varying degrees from basic to advanced complexity on EW theory where you could learn on your own at least the basics from a professional source. Yet you would take EMphase's word on it before any of those. If you don't know or understand the basics yourself what leads you to believe or know that he has it right or can be taken as an expert on the theory. He throws one chart up an he's the imperial wizard of EW theory. What did you find so impressive in that one chart that would make you think that he could teach you so much.

Ski,
Why do I think he's the Imperial Wizard of EW? Because he knows a lot more about EW than I do, and because his chart featured some very careful wave counting. Me, I think BBD is headed South for now. Loose chart. Topping tails. Ultra low volume.

You are right; there are a lot of sites to learn from. Since BBD is "in the bag", if BBD pulls back from here, we'll know for sure that I need to visit those sites rather than this one

[skiracer]

Ski,
Why do I think he's the Imperial Wizard of EW? Because he knows a lot more about EW than I do, and because his chart featured some very careful wave counting. Me, I think BBD is headed South for now. Loose chart. Topping tails. Ultra low volume.

You are right; there are a lot of sites to learn from. Since BBD is "in the bag", if BBD pulls back from here, we'll know for sure that I need to visit those sites rather than this one

Personally I think that if you took a dozen EW technicians and gave them all the same chart you would end up with a dozen different counts or interpretations. I was implying that you could do a whole lot better for yourself by picking up a good book on EW Theory an it's relationship with Fibonnaci Wave Guidelines to get a better basic intro and feel for what Elliot was talking about. I think that understanding the true concepts of how they were meant to be applied needs to be understood first before you should construe the counts the way you think they should or could be read. The theory and wave counts go hand in hand with Fib retracement lines and percentages. Understanding that any specific wave needs to drop or rise a specific percentage or Fib retracement lower or higher than it's preceding wave is how it is supposed to be applied in it's true sense. Understanding those percentages an will provide a good grasp an understanding of the basic fundamentals of the theory and should be mandatory before applying any of your own or anyone else's adlibbing. Then you would be able to understand what that individual may or may not be seeing in their interpretation. You may learn something about the theory from someone like EMphase, me or Spike or anyone who is giving their own interpretation of the theory as applied to some chart but then you would be picking our bad habits or loose ends which will eventually lead you further away from the actual theory as it was meant to be applied. Perhaps I was to harsh in my first post. I'm sorry if I came off that way. I meant it to be much more in line with how I explained myself here in this post. You would never understand what EMphase or anyone else was missing or doing wrong without an understanding of how the theory should truely be applied in counting the waves.

BBD is going to be another winner for Ernie for one simple reason. Maybe not tomorrow or next week but over his targetted time period or maybe alittle longer. It's fundamentally very strong and the Brazilian govt. needs it to produce and flourish. They are going to do everything in their power to make this happen an it will over the intermediate term.

[New-born baby]

Ski

Ski,
You are correct; I need to invest the time to study EW. I haven't to this point because it is too much of an art for my personality. By that I mean, I don't like things that aren't exact; things that aren't "black and white;" and things that require a "freehand" skill. Me, I use rulers and squares and tape measures and protractors and table saws, boring mills and lathes.

Your points are well taken Best to ya, Ski!

[sisterwin2]

Ski,
You are correct; I need to invest the time to study EW. I haven't to this point because it is too much of an art for my personality. By that I mean, I don't like things that aren't exact; things that aren't "black and white;" and things that require a "freehand" skill. Me, I use rulers and squares and tape measures and protractors and table saws, boring mills and lathes.

Your points are well taken Best to ya, Ski!

NB, you may be the sweetist soul I have ("met") read. I myself need way too much learning so I read all's opinion. Ski did show me the site to learn about ema/sma, how to understand them..

Just love this whole forum, myself. I still have not seen the fart pic so I am feeling still a bit slighted.

[IIC]

Well...When you are wrong you are wrong...When Ernie put up BBD I remember saying that I thought OZRK was better...Although I didn't think it was Better enough to actually buy it...Well...it tanked...But now that I think about it, I shudda known sumthin' was up...Because the last time I was in Fayetteville I thought I'd pull a Fast One...I went in to the local Bank of the Ozarks w/ a pretty real looking $18 bill...I went to the teller, Hattie Mae, and asked for change...She said..."Certainly IIC...How would you like it...Two 9's, Three 6's or Six 3's"???...IIC

[spikefader]

Glad you posted IIC; I needed a fresh look at this frustrating starter for MrMarket. It's been a cruddy start for this one, having to endure something like -13% from the Huge One's entry (just quietly while Creme of the Crop is +8.15% as of tonight jejeje). But I read Ernie's write up and I am very much on board with the TA reasons to justify the bullishness, but I'm still left waiting for the TA to turn and instill confidence. That wait could well be over in a couple days....

As it stands tonight bearish bias I attached when Ernie bought it still stands, but it's very very close to flipping; for whatever that is worth to anyone.

Interested individuals can check out my latest BBD post here.

Good luck everyone, and prosperous trades!

[New-born baby]

BBD Weekly

No question about it: BBD is at a pivot point. IF BBD drops below around $36.22 on any kind of volume, that's a broken neck and $10 drop is called for by Dow Theory. Volume will be key. However if BBD moves up from here above $42.50 she will be out of danger. . . .

[EMphase]

I didn't bother coming back on BBD until BBD actually did something significant which I think it did over the last days.

The count is still holding perfectly without a single change to it since I first posted. It looks like wave ii is over and wave iii is starting. A price close of well over 39.50$ would confirm this otherwise ii might do a double three or something like that before the earning announcement. Otherwise we can explain the beginning of iii as being systemic to the market performance until the earning that will happen next week.


Spikefader:
Having 1 post or 6000 posts to your name is irrelevant. You don't know my finance background and everyone knows there is no serious positive correlation between having a high number of posts under your name and being successful on the stock market.

The reason I don't get involved much here is because I don't fit much with the type of trading you guys are doing. Mrmarket is an exception to this as most of his stock picks will perform within weeks if not months. He is backing it up with fundamentals and I do like his point of view alot.

I'm not the most diplomatic person and I know it. I will rub some people the wrong way but thats the way I am. However, I was actually only commenting on a tool you are using and questionning it's effectiveness. If you don't question your methodology from time to time, you will never be able to improve it.

I believe my comments and explanations are valid enough to be made. You being insulted by that is irrelevant because the only discussion was concerning a tool but you took it on a personnal level. Like I said you are free to comment my point of view and prove me wrong. If you do, I may even thank you as it might save my butt from taking a wrong decision but if you do, please analyze, demonstrate in a valid way respecting all the rules underlying.

Elliott Wave is not the holy grail but it's one of the strongest method with predictable power for technical analysis when combined with some of the other tools. Yes different persons using Elliott Wave may arrive with different counts for a same security but this is mainly due to the fact that not everyone respect all the rules with the theory & it does happen that the market show a lack of effiency for some securities thus creating some market errors. However, in the end there is only one right way to count with this method that will leads to taking the correct decision.

[Lyehopper]

stick around EMphase!

I didn't bother coming back on BBD until BBD actually did something significant which I think it did over the last days.

The count is still holding perfectly without a single change to it since I first posted. It looks like wave ii is over and wave iii is starting. A price close of well over 39.50$ would confirm this otherwise ii might do a double three or something like that before the earning announcement. Otherwise we can explain the beginning of iii as being systemic to the market performance until the earning that will happen next week.


Spikefader:
Having 1 post or 6000 posts to your name is irrelevant. You don't know my finance background and everyone knows there is no serious positive correlation between having a high number of posts under your name and being successful on the stock market.

The reason I don't get involved much here is because I don't fit much with the type of trading you guys are doing. Mrmarket is an exception to this as most of his stock picks will perform within weeks if not months. He is backing it up with fundamentals and I do like his point of view alot.

I'm not the most diplomatic person and I know it. I will rub some people the wrong way but thats the way I am. However, I was actually only commenting on a tool you are using and questionning it's effectiveness. If you don't question your methodology from time to time, you will never be able to improve it.

I believe my comments and explanations are valid enough to be made. You being insulted by that is irrelevant because the only discussion was concerning a tool but you took it on a personnal level. Like I said you are free to comment my point of view and prove me wrong. If you do, I may even thank you as it might save my butt from taking a wrong decision but if you do, please analyze, demonstrate in a valid way respecting all the rules underlying.

Elliott Wave is not the holy grail but it's one of the strongest method with predictable power for technical analysis when combined with some of the other tools. Yes different persons using Elliott Wave may arrive with different counts for a same security but this is mainly due to the fact that not everyone respect all the rules with the theory & it does happen that the market show a lack of effiency for some securities thus creating some market errors. However, in the end there is only one right way to count with this method that will leads to taking the correct decision.

EMphase.... I'm not the most "diplomatic person" around here either dude.lol.... Why not start a thread here and post some stocks you watch and post your TA.... I for one think your contruibution here would be very educational. And I'd like to learn more about EW.... Please consider it?....

btw.... What "other tools" are you refering to?

[EMphase]

The best tools that complement the Elliott Wave are the ones below. They are very common tools used by alot of traditionnal technical analysts.

Moving Averages
When the short one is crossing the long one "up", it means a wave 1,3,5,b is most likely starting or already started.

When the short one is crossing the long one "down", it means a wave 2,4,a,c is most likely starting or already started.

RSI (or Slow Stochastic)
70% overbought
30% oversold
50% break-up: positive signal
50% break-down: negative signal

Candlestick Patterns
When you know a wave is about to end, a candlestick pattern may give an extra hint. However the candlestick pattern without the understanding the Elliot Wave count behind it is not very reliable in my opinion.

Fibonacci retracements
Useful but only if you are using at the pivot points of the waves. Which means at the very beginning or at the very end of a wave. Anywhere else it's not useful and doesn't have predictable power.

Traditionnal patterns
Wedges, Flags, Triangle, Double Top, Double Bottom, H&S, reverse H&S, ETC. however there is a difference:
The traditional analyst will take anything that looks like a pattern by its name. For example, if a traditional analyst sees something that looks like a triangle, he will say it's a triangle and like some people here said... it's a triangle until it's proven it's not.

The Elliott Wave analyst must meet specific criteras to call a pattern by it's name. For example, something that looks like a triangle is a valid triangle only if it's a corrective pattern from wave 4 or B or if it's part of a double three or triple three. Also the triangle must contain 5 corrective waves of a smaller degree. If it doesn't have 5 waves (a,b,c,d,e) it's NOT a triangle. A triangle that meets all these criteras have PREDICTABLE power... Like this one on BBD.

Channels, Support & Resistances
These are very important tools for an EW analyst. However contrary to a traditionnal analyst, you can draw a channel using EW only if it meet certain criteras. If the criteras aren't met,the channel isn't recognized as the true channel.

Support and resistances appears on corrective patterns that are bounded within certain price ranges or also can be estimated on places where shares got accumulated for a certain period of time.

Measurements (price & time)
Measuring the lenght of a wave can have some great predicting power. For example, wave 5 often got at least the lenght of wave 1. So take the measure of wave 1 and report it on the chart starting from wave 4 and you will have a fairly accurate estimate for a minimal target. Thats just 1 example.

Volume & Volume by price
This is very important to confirm a break out of a pattern like a triangle. A break out can only be confirmed on stronger than usual volume.

Logarithmic charts
Very important. You can't count waves correctly without using a log scale.

Others
All of these can be used to help with the EW analysis but none of them are essential. Let's just say their use depends of the situation: MACD, DMI, % short interest, Put/Call ratio, P/E ratio, Earnings, Dividends, Splits.

[lemonjello]

EM,

What're the best books or training methods on EW?

What do you think of Prechter?

[spikefader]

EMphase.

Thanks for you contributions. I'm not gonna bite dude. It really has been a joy talking to you. God bless your cotton sox. And I join Lye in encouraging you to start a thread and express yourself. I'm glad BBD didn't get much worse than -4% from your "fasten your seatbelts launch has begun" advice. You were starting to look silly jejeje.

My only reservation toward your "iii" is the lackluster impulsiveness; it's not the kind of impulsiveness I like to see. There has been a gap up that coiled today in a rangebound fashion, failing to take out the highs of the day with any exhuberance. I point out that this is that channel short resistance that you failed to appreciate on the day I mentioned it.

BUT on the plus side, there was a channel turn up today (from the 39.20 high) which is a green light from my HCT system to buy the intraday pivot tomorrow folks. I would recommend 2%-3% stop on the play. I don't have time to run the calculator, but just check a pivot calculator to work it out.

Outa town from about lunchtime later today, so I won't be posting for couple days. So good luck BBD lovers! May it shoot to da moon!

[EMphase]

I know it's lacking impulsiveness but there is a reason to that. The earnings are getting released next week so the stock is just moving the same that the market will move during that time (Check S&P500 or DJIA) which means the stock is moving based on the systematic risk of the markets. I may be wrong that ii is over but I said that on my post. However its possible that iii started very slowly today. Only the earnings most likely are going to make the stock progress soon.

Books

http://www.elliottwave.com/store/

The Essential Elliott Wave Collection (20% discount off individual books)
Get the collection of books Bob Prechter calls "The Essentials" for anyone interested in the Wave Principle: Elliott Wave Principle – Key to Market Behavior, Prechter's Perspective and R.N. Elliott's Masterworks.
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Take this one. Elliott Wave Principle – Key to Market Behavior is a bit old and not up-to-date since 1985 possibly but it's a classic and the must have. You will probably enjoy the read as it is very interesting.

[mrmarket]

May 9 earnings...I am guessing they will be AWESOME.

[mrmarket]

These earnings were....HUGE!

UPDATE 1-Brazil's Bradesco profit up 27 pct on loan growth
Mon May 8, 2006 6:59 AM ET

SAO PAULO, Brazil, May 8 (Reuters) - Banco Bradesco's <BBD.N><BBDC4.SA> first-quarter net profit jumped 27 percent on strong growth in its loan portfolio, Brazil's largest private-sector bank said on Monday.

The Sao Paulo-based bank posted a quarterly profit of 1.53 billion reais ($743 million), up from 1.2 billion reais a year earlier and 1.46 billion reais in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Return on equity averaged 34.6 percent in the quarter, compared with 34.7 percent a year earlier and 35.3 percent in the fourth quarter.

Like other banks in Brazil, Bradesco continues to benefit from growing demand for consumer credit, which has been expanding at a steady pace even though interest rates in the country remain among the highest in the world.

About 30 percent of Bradesco's earnings in the quarter came from its loan portfolio, which expanded 28 percent from a year ago and 4.1 percent from the fourth quarter, reaching 84.4 billion reais.

Individual borrowers accounted for the bulk of that growth, helped by Bradesco's partnership with Casas Bahia, the country's leading retailer of furniture and household appliances. Bradesco manages the chain's credit portfolio, giving it access to low-income consumers that traditionally turn to retailers for personal loans.

Individual loans jumped 50.6 percent from a year earlier and 7.5 percent from the previous quarter, while loans to small and medium-sized companies grew 22.9 percent and 0.3 percent respectively.

For banks in Brazil, personal loans offer higher returns than loans to companies because they carry larger spreads, or the difference between loan rates and the central bank's base rate, currently at a lofty 15.75 percent.

But the jump in lending also brought an increase in provisions for unpaid loans. Bradesco provisioned 938 million reais in the quarter, up from 770 million reais in the fourth quarter.

To bolster its loan portfolio, Bradesco bought American Express Co.'s <AXP.N> Brazilian operations in March for $490 million, adding 1.2 million customers to its credit card portfolio.

Bradesco, whose main rival is Banco Itau Holding Financeira <ITU.N><ITAU4.SA>, finished the quarter with 216.39 billion reais in total assets, up 13.1 percent from a year earlier and 3.7 percent from the end of December.

($1 = 2.06 reais)