Lyehopper's Roundup....

[Rob]

If steel companies are so hot, then why is Schnitzer (SCHN) so cheap? Less than 8 P/E? Shoot, it's starting to look really good to me.

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I know that you mentioned that you were stalking ECOL the other day. I'm in from 20.30. Did you buy any? It's making a decent move today.

Yep, I bought @ $19.40 to $19.50.... I've still got limit orders in place from about $19.00 up to $19.50....

[billyjoe]

Peanuts,

CHAP looks good to me . Also TIE although it's not technically steel they usually group them together.

-----------billyjoe

[peanuts]

Peanuts,

CHAP looks good to me . Also TIE although it's not technically steel they usually group them together.

-----------billyjoe

I told Ernie to buy CHAP or NSS the last time he did his dump (he picked AXR instead)

If he had listened to some advice from peanut heaven, then he could have done this dump at a much better time (market timing wise) But, he is huge, and I am just little peanuts

I like the steel industry until 2008, except for SCHN- Rob, that is like the only steel stock that is down from the beginning of the year. If you like risk, go ahead and buy it, but I wouldn't touch that with someone else's 10 foot pole

[Lyehopper]

Short basic steel....

If steel companies are so hot, then why is Schnitzer (SCHN) so cheap? Less than 8 P/E? Shoot, it's starting to look really good to me.

Steel has more down side ahead. There is speculation out there about some steel CO's being bought out (like our local RESC was by STLD not so long ago) and that's is fueling some of the upward moves we're seeing this week. But it's just fluff.

The sector will move lower though because sales growth is tapering off and inventories are rising and prices are sliding. It's just a commodity afterall.

Now, I already see this happening as my contact at Gerdau Ameristeel (just ten minutes ago) told me that we're getting a 2.2% decrease tomorrow or Monday). The prices I'm paying (for the bar I buy as an OEM trackwork Manufacturer) are 19% higher then they were one year ago and the Basic steel index is 62% higher than it was a year ago!!!! I was just told that inventories ARE RISING .... SO I'm holding off on ordering (if at all possible) till the next decrease which I guess is only about three weeks off.

AND according to my contact at STLD (that I just talked to two minutes ago) Scrap sur-charges just fell THIS MORNING by 20.5%!!!! HUUUUGE! (of course I already knew that was gonna happen)

Keep your eye on short interest, it will soon rise.... I think the basic steel sector has a 30% drop coming from current valuation.

Lye, why don't you consult me before you make trades in Steel? I'm not trying to sound like I'm top dog, or anything, but sheesh dude, I've been harping on Steel for a while now- and have been 100% right every time, if I might add.

I've seen it all before. I buy steel every day, I know the industry and I was trading these steel stocks when "Mr. I'm 100% right all the freakin' time" Peanut's nuts were just.... well.... peanuts".

[spikefader]

Sheesh up 4% today! I'm still holding my short because I darned well know that freakin' AKS just ain't worth freakin' $14+....just AIN'T!!!!

Hey Lye.

A few charts worth glancing at. 15.00 bear last stand resistance?? Good luck dude.

[dmk112]

I agree, steel is looking good. I've been trying to get into ATI but it's been running w/o me

[peanuts]

I've seen it all before. I buy steel every day, I know the industry and I was trading these steel stocks when "Mr. I'm 100% right all the freakin' time" Peanut's nuts were just.... well.... peanuts".

jejejejeje I love always being right!

I want you to do well, Lye. But, you won't if you short steel right now.

[spikefader]

Peanuts.

I guess with confidence that noone has ever accused you of being too modest or polite, huh?

At times like this I briefly wonder whether your combination of brilliance, arrogance and insecurity helps or hurts your trading reality. Do you think you will earn genuine and loyal respect with some of the stuff that you write? Maybe I'm just grumpy tonight.....

Anyway, Lye. Ignore the crap and thanks for sharin' your thoughts.

[IIC]

jejejejeje I love always being right!

I hope you are kidding Peanuts because the day you really believe that is the day you oughtta hang it up...Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

Peanuts.

I guess with confidence that noone has ever accused you of being too modest or polite, huh?

At times like this I briefly wonder whether your combination of brilliance, arrogance and insecurity helps or hurts your trading reality. Do you think you will earn genuine and loyal respect with some of the stuff that you write? Maybe I'm just grumpy tonight.....

Anyway, Lye. Ignore the crap and thanks for sharin' your thoughts.

Peanuts brings the best out in everyone at times. I think he just needs to sip a couple of fingers of Granmarnier with an ice cold pint of his favorite beer. I like to take a small sip and savor the burn and taste. Then a sip of beer to cleanse and get your taste buds ready for that next sip of Granmarnier. And start it all over again. That's always good to take the edge off and help you reflect on what you just said.

[peanuts]

jejejejeje I love always being right!

I want you to do well, Lye. But, you won't if you short steel right now.

Hey guys, and Lye (if you thought anything of it)

I should have already learned this lesson.

I guess I've become too comfortable here... sarcasm just cannot be easily reflected in a few words strung together quickly and without much thought and only punctuated with a smiley or two. I didn't mean for it to come across in the manner in which it seems some have taken it.

I think Lye is a big boy and if he could not afford to risk 4% on his short play in AKS, then he would have set a stop before that. He said himself that he will add to his short position if it continues to go higher, and I never said that it would be a bad idea at that time (when it is higher). What I did say is that I think it is a bad idea to short Steel now.

I was playfully saying that I love to always be right. I know that I'm not always right, and I'll admit to the facts when I can be proven wrong.

I feel like I just got harpooned

[Lyehopper]

I want you to do well, Lye. But, you won't if you short steel right now.

Well I'm very encouraged that you "want me to do well".... I don't know if I could sleep tonight knowing otherwise.

So peanuts, since you're so bullish, what steel stocks are you buying right now? And at what prices?

Hey Lye.

A few charts worth glancing at. 15.00 bear last stand resistance?? Good luck dude.

Thanks for the TA.... and honestly I see what you see. But I see something deeper.... and I've seen it before. Steel is just a commodity Spike and just like oil or soy beans or live cattle.... price is driven by supply and demand and steel prices are way too high and I don't think the steel investors see it yet.... I took a short position in X on Monday very near the high of $65. I was waiting for a rally to short this stock. I know that steel prices are falling, I know that demand is waining, I know that inventories are rising AND I know that scrap prices are FALLING FAST!

I made some great profits a few weeks ago short selling the refiners when no one else here was seeing it.... I think I'll make out shorting these steel CO's too while everyone gets dooped by the charts. AKS is not (exactly) following the pack so something might really be up with it (like a buy out?) But I know it ain't worth $14....

Hey fellas, I've been dead wrong before. But I ain't afraid of bucking the trend if I really beleive in something. We shall see I guess and if I'm proven wrong then I'll admit it and take the punches.LOL!

[Lyehopper]

Hey guys, and Lye (if you thought anything of it)

I should have already learned this lesson.

I guess I've become too comfortable here... sarcasm just cannot be easily reflected in a few words strung together quickly and without much thought and only punctuated with a smiley or two. I didn't mean for it to come across in the manner in which it seems some have taken it.

I think Lye is a big boy and if he could not afford to risk 4% on his short play in AKS, then he would have set a stop before that. He said himself that he will add to his short position if it continues to go higher, and I never said that it would be a bad idea at that time (when it is higher). What I did say is that I think it is a bad idea to short Steel now.

I was playfully saying that I love to always be right. I know that I'm not always right, and I'll admit to the facts when I can be proven wrong.

I feel like I just got harpooned

come on peanuts quit your damned cryin' .... Lye is a big boy and he knows how you are. No harm done. So what steel stocks are you buying?

[peanuts]

waaaahhhh

come on peanuts quit your damned cryin' .... Lye is a big boy and he knows how you are. No harm done. So what steel stocks are you buying?

Are you sure I didn't hurt your feelings, Lye?

The PSI was up 2.68% today with only 1 stock in negative territory on the day (ZEUS)

I have been very happy with my shares of MT, lately. But I bought those last week, so does it count? I posted somewhere here about it, but nobody responded. I also have NUE in another account, but that was purchased a long long time ago.

If I would be stalking a steel stock to buy right now, I would be looking at buying GNA if it breaks $10.50 with good volume, or if it fills the gap around $9.00. I would sell on the first break of big news, and keep a 6% trailing stop loss on the $10.50 buy and a stop loss on the $9 buy that would move along with the stock at 3% stop from previous day's close.