Little Peanuts, hard at work, needs your help to get things straight

[peanuts]

I need your help with this stock:

NSS - Chart Link

My previous analysis (privately withheld) indicated a much better return since Dec 21, when I bought ($40.50). This was supposed to be my largest 1 year holding, and currently is, but I had anticipated a better return by the end of March. That time is coming, and I am debating whether this is really the stock that I should hold for the long term gains tax rate. 1/4 of the year is nearly over, and I have nothing to show for it. I was expecting at least 35% return for the whole year (ending Dec 22), but I'm not feeling so good about it anymore.

There are some very intelligent people on this board that do a much better analysis of individual stocks and companies which I am able to do. If you know what you are doing, could you please give me your ideas on this stock? Whatever you know... it doesn't matter, just please share it.

Thank you very much for the assistance.

[IIC]

I need your help with this stock:

NSS - Chart Link

My previous analysis (privately withheld) indicated a much better return since Dec 21, when I bought ($40.50). This was supposed to be my largest 1 year holding, and currently is, but I had anticipated a better return by the end of March. That time is coming, and I am debating whether this is really the stock that I should hold for the long term gains tax rate. 1/4 of the year is nearly over, and I have nothing to show for it. I was expecting at least 35% return for the whole year (ending Dec 22), but I'm not feeling so good about it anymore.

There are some very intelligent people on this board that do a much better analysis of individual stocks and companies which I am able to do. If you know what you are doing, could you please give me your ideas on this stock? Whatever you know... it doesn't matter, just please share it.

Thank you very much for the assistance.

For a long term hold like that I'd have to do some dd on the company...But I think you already have your answer on what to do...One of my philosophies is "When in Doubt...Get Out"...Not that I always follow it...but I know I should.

Hey...BTW...If you use the DGO Custom Screener you can copy the screen results into DGO Stock Lists...I don't do that because I hardly ever use their screener...And I can't remember off hand how to do it...But I have the instructions on my home computer...Let me know...Best, Doug(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

Nss....

Hey Peanuts.... If I were you I'd go ahead and sell it. I don't like that nasty triple top.... Looks to me like it's headed south to about $36.25.... or a 11.5%+ haircut. Just my opinion. Reminds me of PARL on about 9/22/05

Ask NewBorn-Baby his opinion, he ain't shy.lol

What percentage of your portfolio is tied up in NSS?

[Rob]

If you use the DGO Custom Screener . . .

What's "DGO"?

[New-born baby]

I'm so shy

Hey Peanuts.... If I were you I'd go ahead and sell it. I don't like that nasty triple top.... Looks to me like it's headed south to about $36.25.... or a 11.5%+ haircut. Just my opinion. Reminds me of PARL on about 9/22/05
Ask NewBorn-Baby his opinion, he ain't shy.lol

Here's a chart that tells you all you need to know. I could post more, but I am too shy So I'll just quietly say, "GET OUT NOW!!!!" The haircut that Lye-baby speaks of is more like an amputation: $31. lol

[Lyehopper]

Here's a chart that tells you all you need to know. I could post more, but I am too shy So I'll just quietly say, "GET OUT NOW!!!!" The haircut that Lye-baby speaks of is more like an amputation: $31. lol

Post more!!!! Post more!!!!lol

Hey NB-Baby.... How's he gonna learn if ya don't? Hey Peanuts here's my take on the chart. I ran a "Fibonacci Retracement" to get my target. I'm not a TA expert like some here, but I think it's headed lower.

[IIC]

What's "DGO"?

DailyGraphs Online

[peanuts]

Hey Peanuts.... If I were you I'd go ahead and sell it. I don't like that nasty triple top....

Forgive me, I do not know to what you are referring. Could you please explain this a little more? Thanks.

Looks to me like it's headed south to about $36.25.... or a 11.5%+ haircut. Just my opinion. Reminds me of PARL on about 9/22/05

I read your thread regarding PARL. What is your price target / time horizon?

What percentage of your portfolio is tied up in NSS?

50% of my long term holdings as of Dec 22, 2005. My personal portfolio is made of short term, mid term, and long term holdings. Mid term holdings are ususally 3-6 months, LT are 1+ years, and ST varies. At times of rebalancing, I try to have a total portfolio breakdown like this: 30% LT, 30% MT, 40% ST

When I rebalanced my portfolio at the end of last year, NSS was approx 15% of my total portfolio, now it's at 9.7%. My ST holdings are doing better.

[peanuts]

DailyGraphs Online

Doug,

I do not have a subscription to this "service" Thanks, though

[DSteckler]

<< 50% of my long term holdings as of Dec 22, 2005. >>

Far too concentrated.

[peanuts]

Thanks for the help everyone. I'll do some research over the weekend, and make a decision on Monday.

I was really hoping to get some positive opinions from you guys, but that was only wishfull and selfish thinking. I appreciate your honest approaches to my situation. And actually, even if what you have posted did not agree with my initial opinion, it is still positive.

I'll let you guys know what I've done, once I've done it.

Thanks

[peanuts]

point and figure or point and laugh?

Here's a chart that tells you all you need to know. I could post more, but I am too shy So I'll just quietly say, "GET OUT NOW!!!!" The haircut that Lye-baby speaks of is more like an amputation: $31. lol

I know absolutely nothing about these point and figure charts. That is my fault, as I see that many people use them, and many people profit from using them. However, I don't know how to use them, yet.

What I am more interested in, is why you are telling me to "GET OUT NOW"? Is the amputation a certain thing? What is the probability? Also, I saw that you used a bearish sentiment in the P&F chart... did you use a bullish sentiment as well? What are the results? This is a big decision for me. I would truely appreciate supporting evidence or something other than a chart that I don't understand. I really mean it... Thank you.

I would like your opinion, but I will not hold hard feelings if your opinion pans out the wrong way. What I do, I decide to do.

[peanuts]

50% of LT, or 15% of TOTAL

<< 50% of my long term holdings as of Dec 22, 2005. >>

Far too concentrated.

It is a big decision for me to have 15% of my portfolio tied up in one stock for one year. I do not hold 50% of my portfolio in any one stock. To me, THAT would be far too concentrated.

I am interested to learn why you think one stock, worth 15% of my total portfolio is "far too concentrated"

I have 2 other LT holdings, which made up the other 15% of my 30% LT holdings of the total portfolio. I am not as concerned about them as I am about NSS. Did your comment have refference to NSS, or the percentage committed to LT holding? Thanks

[IIC]

It is a big decision for me to have 15% of my portfolio tied up in one stock for one year. I do not hold 50% of my portfolio in any one stock. To me, THAT would be far too concentrated.

I am interested to learn why you think one stock, worth 15% of my total portfolio is "far too concentrated"

I have 2 other LT holdings, which made up the other 15% of my 30% LT holdings of the total portfolio. I am not as concerned about them as I am about NSS. Did your comment have refference to NSS, or the percentage committed to LT holding? Thanks

I don't think so...15% of your portfolio in one stock...I am not much of a diversification guy like some others...But, to put a large % of your holdings in one or a few stocks...You need to know them inside out...No hesitation...And unfortunately...You are hesitant or have 2nd thoughts on this one...If you didn't...You would not be asking for other opinions.

When I'm sure I am right...There is no need to ask others...When I have doubts...I might ask.

Admittedly...I have lost some big bux on some...I have also lost out on some big bux because I listened to others and sold too soon....But the market is a game...Play the odds as you see them...I would much rather miss out on a big gain than take a big loss...Heck, I sold MIDD at 25...Sold HANS at about 25.92 or was it vice-versa???...Sold FCFS in '03...LCAV...blew it...But the one that actually did get to me a bit was MSFT...I was heavy in the 80's...But except for DT's...I was basically out by '89...I was a Canslimmer back then...Had too many shs out for a died in the wool CS'er back then as I recall...But life goes on...IIC

[New-born baby]

Peanuts

I know absolutely nothing about these point and figure charts. That is my fault, as I see that many people use them, and many people profit from using them. However, I don't know how to use them, yet.

What I am more interested in, is why you are telling me to "GET OUT NOW"? Is the amputation a certain thing? What is the probability? Also, I saw that you used a bearish sentiment in the P&F chart... did you use a bullish sentiment as well? What are the results? This is a big decision for me. I would truely appreciate supporting evidence or something other than a chart that I don't understand. I really mean it... Thank you.

I would like your opinion, but I will not hold hard feelings if your opinion pans out the wrong way. What I do, I decide to do.

Since you admit to knowing nothing about a PnF chart, I'll tell you what I meant by posting this chart:
1. This chart is computer generated. I did not start with a bullish or bearish sentiment. The computer looks at the price movement of a stock, and by that has generated a bearish target of $31. The 'bearish target' means that the price is expected to decline to $31 from its present price.

2. Probability? Charts are about 75%-80% accurate. There is no Holy Grail.

3. I could post some techical reasons (i.e. when I say 'technical reasons," I am speaking of chart formations that NSS has currently formed on its chart. These formations are calling for a price drop to the $31 area. I posted the PnF chart and circled the computer generated price target because I thought you'd see that target and understand that NSS does not look like a buy right now, but definitely looks like a sell.

All the best to you, Peanuts!