ADM ==> prospects?

[mrmarket]

Can we safely assume that building an EtOH plant requires jumping thru fewer enviromental hoops than building, say, um, a petroleum refinery? Not to mention incentives.

Maybe fewer safety problems, transportation problems? Not sure, just wondering.

Will they be switching former petro pipelines over to EtOH eventually - reversing direction of the pipelines going from the Gulf coast inland?

Will farmers in Iowa start dressing in Bedoin robes and riding around their corn fields in huge ethanol consuming Mercedes limos? OPEC -> OEEC.

Big for Brazil also.

You can't move ethanol in a pipeline...this will be a big reason why we'll see supply shortages of ethanol..and gasoline..this summer. While the supply shortages will be related to logistics, they will be perceived as inventory related and, voila, cause spot prices of ethanol to increase, generating increased profits for ethanol producers.

None of these fundamental changes are reflected in any of ADM's numbers at this point.

[lemonjello]

That's very interesting.

I'm not so clear on the EtOH supply chain. Are there commercial sources other than plant biomass? Can it be synthesized easily in petrochemical plant? Or even if it can is that EtOH allowed for use in vehicles?

I see that CBOT has an EtOH contract. Which could be a good pure play. Any commodity chartists want to take a shot at it?

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1754,00.html

Good luck to everyone!

You can't move ethanol in a pipeline...this will be a big reason why we'll see supply shortages of ethanol..and gasoline..this summer. While the supply shortages will be related to logistics, they will be perceived as inventory related and, voila, cause spot prices of ethanol to increase, generating increased profits for ethanol producers.

None of these fundamental changes are reflected in any of ADM's numbers at this point.

[lemonjello]

There may be some truckers or railroads that specialize in EtOH areas worth looking into also.

[mrmarket]

There may be some truckers or railroads that specialize in EtOH areas worth looking into also.

Most of the ethanol will be moved by rail..but there are not enough railcars and the railroads don't go to all of the gasoline storage terminals where the ethanol is blended, so trucks are needed.

Being a truck driver used to be a good line of work for those characters who had a shady past and wanted to move from town to town....however since 9/11, those guys can't get hired as drivers any more without sufficient background checks, so they shy away from being truck drivers.

So there aren't enough truck drivers to haul the ethanol.

The ethanol doesn't get to the terminals...the terminals can't make gasoline. People run out of gas..prices go up.

Wait til summer...

[New-born baby]

The eternal optimist

Most of the ethanol will be moved by rail..but there are not enough railcars and the railroads don't go to all of the gasoline storage terminals where the ethanol is blended, so trucks are needed.

Being a truck driver used to be a good line of work for those characters who had a shady past and wanted to move from town to town....however since 9/11, those guys can't get hired as drivers any more without sufficient background checks, so they shy away from being truck drivers.

So there aren't enough truck drivers to haul the ethanol.

The ethanol doesn't get to the terminals...the terminals can't make gasoline. People run out of gas..prices go up.

Wait til summer...

Good ole MM: the eternal optimist

[lemonjello]

I'll do a quick SWAG chart reading and it looks like EtOH has already been running a bit and is ready to breakout at around 2.75. This probably bares some further investigation.

http://cbotdataexchange.if5.com/DataEOD_F_Chart.aspx?symbol=AC/F.CBOT

[sisterwin2]

Just looking at the ema/sma... this stock looks like a winner for the next few days anyway.

[mrmarket]

Oh..by the way...Brazil has automobiles that run on 100% ethanol. Don't you think ADM will start to tweak Detroit and Washington to see some of these cars hit our highways?

[DSteckler]

Oh..by the way...Brazil has automobiles that run on 100% ethanol. Don't you think ADM will start to tweak Detroit and Washington to see some of these cars hit our highways?

No, I don't.

[lemonjello]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060222/moving_ethanol.html?.v=2

Any suggestions for shipping companies for importing Brazilian EtOH?

[lemonjello]

How dry I am

Anybody get in EtOH futs? Moving.

Looks like ADM is getting ready to move as well.

Good trading everyone.

[mrmarket]

u sees?

Ethanol Demand Lifts ADM 3Q Profit 29 Pct.
Tuesday May 2, 10:02 am ET
Archer Daniels Midland 3Q Profit Grows 29 Percent on Oilseeds, Ethanol Demand

DECATUR, Ill. (AP) -- Archer Daniels Midland Co., one of the world's largest agriculture processors, said Tuesday its fiscal third-quarter earnings rose 29 percent, driven by an increase in demand for processed oilseeds and corn byproducts such as ethanol.
Net income jumped to $347.8 million, or 53 cents per share, for the three months ended March 31 well ahead of the 46 cents a share expected by analysts polled by Thomson Financial. A year ago, earnings were $269.1 million, or 41 cents per share, including a gain of $74 million, or 11 cents per share, related to the sale of an equity stake.

Sales climbed 8 percent to $9.12 billion from $8.48 billion last year. Wall Street expected $8.67 billion.

Operating profit jumped 46 percent to $549 million. Profit from oilseeds -- or any number of seeds such as rapeseed and cottonseed that can be processed to produce vegetable oil -- nearly tripled to $177 million.

ADM shares rose 65 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $38.65 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock is near the upper end of its 52-week range of $18 and $39.01.

[New-born baby]

Peix

Ethanol Demand Lifts ADM 3Q Profit 29 Pct.
Tuesday May 2, 10:02 am ET
Archer Daniels Midland 3Q Profit Grows 29 Percent on Oilseeds, Ethanol Demand

DECATUR, Ill. (AP) -- Archer Daniels Midland Co., one of the world's largest agriculture processors, said Tuesday its fiscal third-quarter earnings rose 29 percent, driven by an increase in demand for processed oilseeds and corn byproducts such as ethanol.
Net income jumped to $347.8 million, or 53 cents per share, for the three months ended March 31 well ahead of the 46 cents a share expected by analysts polled by Thomson Financial. A year ago, earnings were $269.1 million, or 41 cents per share, including a gain of $74 million, or 11 cents per share, related to the sale of an equity stake.

Sales climbed 8 percent to $9.12 billion from $8.48 billion last year. Wall Street expected $8.67 billion.

Operating profit jumped 46 percent to $549 million. Profit from oilseeds -- or any number of seeds such as rapeseed and cottonseed that can be processed to produce vegetable oil -- nearly tripled to $177 million.

ADM shares rose 65 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $38.65 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock is near the upper end of its 52-week range of $18 and $39.01.

ADM's report gave PEIX a nice $1.50 boost this morning

[sowersnc]

Ethanol Demand Lifts ADM 3Q Profit 29 Pct.
Tuesday May 2, 10:02 am ET
Archer Daniels Midland 3Q Profit Grows 29 Percent on Oilseeds, Ethanol Demand

DECATUR, Ill. (AP) -- Archer Daniels Midland Co., one of the world's largest agriculture processors, said Tuesday its fiscal third-quarter earnings rose 29 percent, driven by an increase in demand for processed oilseeds and corn byproducts such as ethanol.
Net income jumped to $347.8 million, or 53 cents per share, for the three months ended March 31 well ahead of the 46 cents a share expected by analysts polled by Thomson Financial. A year ago, earnings were $269.1 million, or 41 cents per share, including a gain of $74 million, or 11 cents per share, related to the sale of an equity stake.

Sales climbed 8 percent to $9.12 billion from $8.48 billion last year. Wall Street expected $8.67 billion.

Operating profit jumped 46 percent to $549 million. Profit from oilseeds -- or any number of seeds such as rapeseed and cottonseed that can be processed to produce vegetable oil -- nearly tripled to $177 million.

ADM shares rose 65 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $38.65 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock is near the upper end of its 52-week range of $18 and $39.01.

Thanks big guy!! I bought some a couple of weeks ago based on this thread. I had been watching it for too long. It was time to act.

Just think how much free pumping from politicians we are going to get out of Ethanol heading in to the elections this year. I don't know how cost effective it is, what point gas needs to seel for for it to stand on its own and how much pork is pumped into the industry to make it viable. But I do know Washington loves it.

[New-born baby]

Optimism

Thanks big guy!! I bought some a couple of weeks ago based on this thread. I had been watching it for too long. It was time to act.

Just think how much free pumping from politicians we are going to get out of Ethanol heading in to the elections this year. I don't know how cost effective it is, what point gas needs to seel for for it to stand on its own and how much pork is pumped into the industry to make it viable. But I do know Washington loves it.

Optimistically, ethanol will get politicians votes from farmers and lots of dough donated from ADM types.

Realistically, ethanol will never, ever pay for itself.

Pessimistically, we are all going to pay higher fuel and food costs.