Ask $$$MR. MARKET$$$

[Gem]

CBK

Seems to be a lagging...do you think retail stocks need to have sell rule as they are too dependent on their short tterm performance like SSS etc?

[mrmarket]

Re: CBK

Seems to be a lagging...do you think retail stocks need to have sell rule as they are too dependent on their short tterm performance like SSS etc?

see...ACMR

[mrmarket]

or DKS

[Gem]

Education stocks

Thanks for yr reply on my question on retail stocks. Do u think the recent hammering of education stocks provides an entry point? or is there too much of distribution for those stocks to regain momentum in the short run? I am talking of ceco, coco and apol in specific...

[mrmarket]

Re: Education stocks

Thanks for yr reply on my question on retail stocks. Do u think the recent hammering of education stocks provides an entry point? or is there too much of distribution for those stocks to regain momentum in the short run? I am talking of ceco, coco and apol in specific...

did they turn up in my last dump? If so, then they are candidates.

[The Kid]

If blood ever turns up in one of your dumps, do you immediately see a doctor or do you wait a few days to see if it clears?

[mrmarket]

I'm not amused.

[The Kid]

I'm sorry. My bad. I must have confused you for a guy with a sense of humor.

[Dave]

Re: NCEN

MM
I am impressed with your results. I am fairly new to your board and have been trading with you very successfully. Thanks for the info. I have been playing around with screens to try and follow you and come up with some independent ideas.

One screen recently came up with NCEN which to me looks great, almost too good so I figure I must be missing something. Their debt is high which may be enough reason to avoid. Any thoughts ????

Thanks again great job..

I have been following and trading NCEN for about 6 months. They are a great company that has been using extra cash generated by the low interest rate mortgage boom to do a variety of good things such as expand market share with new offices and implementing an ongoing stock repurchase program. They are fairly conservative with their numbers and operating strategy, and sub-prime does not directly follow the same patterns as prime as they are not necessarily based on the same interest rates (LIBOR). NCEN has recovered nicely from a big dip they took based not on anything they did, or missed numbers, but on a general feeling that the mortgage market was slowing down. They put this fear to rest over the past 4 months by continually posting amazing numbers. I just recently sold my NCEN shares, but the price momentum right now continues to be strong.

-Dave

[HugeFan]

Due diligence question

Hi, Ernie:

You have eight screens to build a universe of stocks from to make your pick. A couple of them involve fundamentals (such as pulling stocks making new highs with IBD EPS rating of 90 or higher) but many focus on price appreciation, nearing new highs and lower PEs. These screens don't necessarily filter on fundamentals.

I've noticed in some of the threads here that you have stayed away from some stocks that don't have, say, three years of earnings growth. You look for real earnings. I know you also mention doing due diligence on the data from your dumps. What fundamental criteria do you look for in eyeballing the 3-5 stocks from which you will make your pick? (As in 17% or more ROE, 25% or more EPS for three years, etc., etc.? Could you elaborate more?

[mrmarket]

Re: Due diligence question

Hi, Ernie:

You have eight screens to build a universe of stocks from to make your pick. A couple of them involve fundamentals (such as pulling stocks making new highs with IBD EPS rating of 90 or higher) but many focus on price appreciation, nearing new highs and lower PEs. These screens don't necessarily filter on fundamentals.

I've noticed in some of the threads here that you have stayed away from some stocks that don't have, say, three years of earnings growth. You look for real earnings. I know you also mention doing due diligence on the data from your dumps. What fundamental criteria do you look for in eyeballing the 3-5 stocks from which you will make your pick? (As in 17% or more ROE, 25% or more EPS for three years, etc., etc.? Could you elaborate more?

I'm not sure I understand your question. Are you asking me how do I determine my final pick when there are only 5 left standing?

[HugeFan]

Yes, that's it. What are your requirements when eyeballing the final five? What makes you choose one over the other, assuming none have any lawsuits or other one-time charges.

[mrmarket]

Yes, that's it. What are your requirements when eyeballing the final five? What makes you choose one over the other, assuming none have any lawsuits or other one-time charges.

I'd have to say that's the "secret sauce". All 5 companies are usually very good. But these are the things I look at and compare to select the creme de la creme:

relative price change and r-squared, historical growth, The stock’s current price relative to its 52 week price high, Recent and past price and volume activity, recent sales and earnings growth acceleration, quarterly sales and earnings growth rates, analyst estimate increases, earnings growth going forward, earnings stability, revenue and margin growth, risk vs. reward, is the stock capable of doubling again, is it still undiscovered, is it a gorilla in its market, are the earnings of high quality, management ownership, cash flow, PE multiple, Relative Price Strength Rating, Moving Average trends, Up volume vs. down volume, return on equity, Recent price performance vs. its industry , industry group’s price performance vs. the S&P 500 index, other primary industry fundamentals and macroeconomic correlations.

Sorry, but this is the point where it becomes subjective rather than quantitative. Usually one of the 5 just "feels" better than the others. But the key is getting down to 5 stocks since it's so much easier to select one stock from 5 rather than one stock out of 10,000. Make sense?




Hope this helps.

[HugeFan]

Yes, it does make sense. Very much. I just knew there had to be a "secret sauce!" Do you ever come up with your five stocks and are underwhelmed by all of them?

[mrmarket]

Yes, it does make sense. Very much. I just knew there had to be a "secret sauce!" Do you ever come up with your five stocks and are underwhelmed by all of them?

yup...not long ago I pulled 5 and didn't like any of them. Of course, SSYS was one of 'em. Doh!

epilogue: (I bought SSYS from a subsequent dump).