CBK ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Oktoberfest pick

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    CBK ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Oktoberfest pick

    Did you ever want to go to Hooters to get a beer, watch some (ahem) football and open your wallet and all of your money is gone? Meanwhile the spousal unit is at the mall and she comes home with an armful of clothes? Then she tries them on and asks you if she looks fat in them? You have no answer for that, so she buys more clothes.

    Today I bought CBK (Christopher & Banks) at 29.37 I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 33.90. Here’s why I like CBK:

    CBK’s stock is up over 225% off of its 52 week low. Despite this amazing price momentum, it’s PE is only 28.

    Christopher & Banks runs a chain of roughly 466 stores aimed at women ages 35 to 55. It also runs a plus-size chain of 107 C.J. Banks stores, which carry women's casual clothes in sizes 14 to 24. Of course women wouldn’t want to be caught dead shopping there, but online orders have done very well. In fact, you get a coupon from Fatburgers with each plus size order from Chris & Banks (I’m kidding…kidding). About 40% of all of the clothing they sell is sweaters..perfect for those days when you’re feeling fat.

    The company's business strategy includes providing target customers with high quality, moderately priced, coordinated ensembles that are interchangeable between work and leisure activities. Christopher & Banks has managed to average 32% annual sales and earnings growth since fiscal 2001 and management expects profit to rise more than 20% this fiscal year. There’s that word again…earnings earnings earnings.

    Christopher & Banks' same-store sales are trending upward. For June they rose 2%. Management expects similar gains for the balance of the year. First Call analysts see full-year profit rising 23%.

    Christopher & Banks plans to open 100 stores this fiscal year. It'll add roughly 70 Christopher & Banks stores and 30 C.J. Banks units. With the way we’ve all been eating, “growth” should really happen in the CJ Banks stores. CJ Banks also yields “larger” sales per customer. Yuk Yuk I murder me.

    CBK has been able to remain highly profitable in a difficult retail environment. Their store expansion and market penetration will enable them to capitalize on any improvement in economic conditions. They should be able to hit $400 million in revenues which will allow them to bank $1.30/share of profit. At today’s PE of 28, this puts the stock price at $36.40 which is well past my sell target.

    Return on equity has exceeded 20%, driven by wide profit margins, and achieved with virtually no debt. Return on assets is an oh-so-sweet 26%.

    Bill Prange, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Christopher & Banks Corporation commented, "We anticipate finishing our fiscal year with approximately 535 stores in operation, further solidifying the position of Christopher & Banks and C.J. Banks in the marketplace. While we expect the retail environment will remain difficult for the foreseeable future, we are encouraged by our ability to continue to generate earnings increases during these challenging times. Given the increasing visibility of our brands and our ability to manage our business efficiently, we believe we will be able to benefit from any improvement in general economic conditions."

    A tried and true formula for growth. Grow the # of stores and grow the sales. Eventually they will saturate the market, but that will be well after I get my 15% from this stock.

    I am HUGE!!!
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  • #2
    i am on board

    Even though this was not my pick, I followed the leed of his huge ness!!

    Thanks--Ernie

    Madmax

    Comment

    • Karel
      Administrator
      • Sep 2003
      • 2199

      #3
      Ernie, I found some spare cash and jumped in. I found USNA with my own (version of your) screens and took that one too.

      I liked the bit about the coupons!

      Regards,

      Karel
      My Investopedia portfolio
      (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

      Comment

      • thebign1
        Senior Member
        • Sep 2003
        • 130

        #4
        CBK >>> I like this one.

        Hello Ernie, I'm in at $28.61 and will sell in 4-6......at $34.00 or something like that. Thanks big guy, your HUUUUUUUUGE!

        Go Yankees!! and Andy Petite was HUUUUUUGE! in last night's game too.

        Regards, Norm

        Comment

        • hawaiikai106

          #5
          Hi Enrie,
          I got in at $28.80 before your announcement. Out of your Octoberfest picks, I felt that CBK had a very good instiututional and mutual fund sponsorship. Shares held by the big boys were in the millions compared to thousands. Does institutionaland mutual fund sponsor ship play a nroloe in your decision process?

          Comment

          • Karel
            Administrator
            • Sep 2003
            • 2199

            #6
            Originally posted by Karel
            ... I found USNA with my own (version of your) screens and took that one too.
            YES! USNA has come safely back with a 17% gain or so!

            Mr. Market is H U G E !!

            And time for the Happy Snoopy Dance again!
            My Investopedia portfolio
            (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

            Comment

            • Gatorper
              No Posting allowed; invalid email
              • Sep 2003
              • 22

              #7
              What happened to CBK?

              Just checked pre-hour trading this am and noticed that CBK is down 13%. Did not see news.. I don't own it, but am very curious as to why it tanks so much.

              Comment


              • #8
                Any guesses on possible CBK entry point?

                Sorry HUGE ONE, but now that CBK is down 36% since the end of October recommendation, can anyone predict whether we're getting close to a possible (re)entry point?

                I wish I could say that I originally sat this one out, but I didn't...

                Comment

                • mrmarket
                  Administrator
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 5971

                  #9
                  Re: Any guesses on possible CBK entry point?

                  Originally posted by NJ_angler
                  Sorry HUGE ONE, but now that CBK is down 36% since the end of October recommendation, can anyone predict whether we're getting close to a possible (re)entry point?

                  I wish I could say that I originally sat this one out, but I didn't...
                  I don't remember ever giving a recommendation for this, or any other, stock.
                  =============================

                  I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                  - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Possible CBK entry point?

                    Bad choice of words; truly sorry HUGE ONE...

                    Now that CBK is down 36% since the end of October, anyone have a guess as to whether we're getting close to a possible (re)entry point?

                    I wish I could say that I originally sat this one out, but I didn't...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      CBK - 15% winner timeframe

                      Don't know when you will break even let alone 15%. But you got to keep the winning streak going at all costs.

                      Comment

                      • mrmarket
                        Administrator
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 5971

                        #12
                        Re: CBK - 15% winner timeframe

                        Originally posted by ytown12
                        Don't know when you will break even let alone 15%. But you got to keep the winning streak going at all costs.
                        Your posts do not sound supportive at all. Why don't you just come out and say what you feel? This passive / aggressive behavior is for cowards.
                        =============================

                        I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                        - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: CBK - 15% winner timeframe

                          Originally posted by ytown12
                          Don't know when you will break even let alone 15%. But you got to keep the winning streak going at all costs.
                          ytown12,

                          You seem to be commenting on my post to take a backhanded slap at the HUGE ONE's investment timeframe philosophy. You also seem to be trying to generate controversy where none was intended.

                          I posed my question to determine whether TA or other research might indicate a potential turnaround for CBK and subsequent entry point at a much lower price. I didn't feel it necessary to comment on either the HUGE ONE's proposed timeframe or streak. Why did you?

                          Needless to say, most of us wouldn't be here if we didn't have faith in Ernie and the maturity to determine our individual tolerance for losses and gains within their respective timeframes.

                          Lighten up!!!
                          NJ_angler

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            RE:

                            I like to stir things up a bit. Just like MM did on the IBD boards. He always challeged the thinking there and I liked that.

                            I just like to know is there a point where you give up on a stock.. is it 40%, 60%, 90% down. Someday one of the picks will get hit even harder than 36% and just for the sake of argument do you ever take the loss to preserve capital ? Don't get defensive or call names like those guys on IBD boards. I respect your model and your ability. Just thinking out loud

                            Comment

                            • mrmarket
                              Administrator
                              • Sep 2003
                              • 5971

                              #15
                              Re: RE:

                              Originally posted by ytown12
                              I like to stir things up a bit. Just like MM did on the IBD boards. He always challeged the thinking there and I liked that.

                              I just like to know is there a point where you give up on a stock.. is it 40%, 60%, 90% down. Someday one of the picks will get hit even harder than 36% and just for the sake of argument do you ever take the loss to preserve capital ? Don't get defensive or call names like those guys on IBD boards. I respect your model and your ability. Just thinking out loud

                              just thinking out loud....if you had a stockbroker who told you that he'd give you 61 stocks, and 55 of them would earn 15% in a few months, what would you think?
                              =============================

                              I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                              - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                              Comment

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