DOW JONES-(Elliott Waves at Work)

[EMphase]

I'm coming with this count for cycle V with SP500.

http://www.emphase.ca/images/at/SP500.gif

[marketwavez]

Skiracer .....

Hear you loud and clear .....
looking forward to posting some forward looking charts .

----------------------------------------------------------------

LET ME ASK YOU A QUESTION ?

Do you think its possible to be right 50% of the time
on ones picks and still be ahead ?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Just looking at Probability -

[skiracer]

Skiracer .....

Hear you loud and clear .....
looking forward to posting some forward looking charts .

----------------------------------------------------------------

LET ME ASK YOU A QUESTION ?

Do you think its possible to be right 50% of the time
on ones picks and still be ahead ?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Just looking at Probability -

My own feelings are that probability has much less to do with your success, if you can master a few necessary traits. I have a discipline that I stick to each trade. I cut the losses at 7% maximum, but of late more in the 4/5 % range. Always take a gain as large as I can when I can rather than giving it back. Honor your stops. And let your winners run out with trailing stops if you can't watch it all day.
If in 10 trades you lose on 5 and limit the losses to a max. of 5%. an on 5 your gains were the same it would be a push less the commissions. Increase the gains to anywhere over 5% and you're close to making a profit. At 10% your making twice as much as you lost less the commissions.
When you increase the losers to say 6 or 7 out of 10 that you have to make sure you let those winners run to the max. and take a half position at a decent gain and keep those trailing stops tight and right to eke the most out of the trade. It's very hard to stay in some positions an overide the emtional aspects of it all. But averaging 20/30 % min. gains over a year can be done year over years. And then there will be periods where you won't end up on the + side. It's all part of it and what you have at the end of the year is what counts in the end as long as you have enough money to last an you stick relentlessly to your discipline and stops.
I think it is would be easy to be right 50 % of the time an be way ahead of the game as long as you cut your losses at 5 - 7 % or less all the time.

[marketwavez]

MY GOSH ........

I THINK you got it Right ........


Now, how do I get the people that don't believe in Elliott Waves as a valid trading method to understand that this aspect of Risk to Reward is what needs to be applied to specific Elliott Waves trade setups ?

Understanding that not all trades set ups are going to make it so to speak.
It is the averages tha'ts all so important .

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trading motto :

I leave you with my trading motto for now
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Professionals are concerned with Risk to Reward

- Everybody else is concerned with being right all the time .