Imcl

[Jack Haddad]

From a technical analysis perspective, in examining the 6-months chart, 35 is clearly a solid support. To establish that 35 support, the chart shows two periods of consolidation: The first from January 18, 2006 to January 25, 2006, and the second from March 20, 2006 to April 11, 2006. One notes that during both periods of consolidation/basing, no bearish descending triangles occurred, suggesting that selling pressure was not evident. From April 20, 2006 to April 24 2006, several long white bullish candlesticks reveal buying interest in blocks of greater than 40K shares on above than the average daily volume. This action has successfully placed the stock's share price well above the 20, and 50 EMAs (exponential moving averages)-- which is safe for one to establish a long position.

As far as the valuations measures are concerned, while the stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 38.33 for 2007, the expected 5 year PEG ratio is only 1.52 Furthermore, the enterprise value based on EBITDA is 10.211 Because various accounting maneuvers can distort reported earnings, many analysts rely on purer measure of profitability that goes by the acronym EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amoritization). Also, enterprise value (a company's stock market capitalization plus outstanding debt minus its cash holdings) is a better measure than a stock market value alone of how investors value a company.

[DSteckler]

It also helps that the 200DMA is at 34.20.

[Rob]

IMCL 2-Yr Weekly as of 5/26/06

[Runner]

Monthly chart shows this stock has strong support in the 28.00 area. This stock has been in a slide since reversal signal on 7/28/04. It flagged a tweezer bottom reversal on 10/25/05. This also is where strong support is located and investors bought into this support. Currently this monthly chart is bullish and is testing 13-month highs.

Weekly chart shows a nice channel that has formed from 11/03/05 and this channel has been probed over the last few weeks. This weekly chart also appears to have established a bottom off that 28 area as confirmed by the monthly reversal signal. Current weekly channel has been tested and thus far succeeded in bouncing off it. Thus far both monthly and weekly chart agree with each other and appear bullish to me.

Daily chart paints a different story to me and here is why. This stock probes new highs and was rejected with a gap down. This also is in step with the weekly chart. Upper channel breach followed by sell off. Now the daily chart shows bottom of channel around 33.94. I do not like the gap down from current highs and if IMCL can fill the up I’d remain bullish from a short-term perspective.

Summary focus longer term:
Monthly chart=Bull
Weekly chart=Bull channel support 33.94
Daily chart = uncertainty

[Rob]

Thar's Fundamentals At Work Behind That Thar Daily Chart

Daily chart paints a different story to me and here is why. This stock probes new highs and was rejected with a gap down.

That gap down, IMO, was institutionally orchestrated to protect the bazillion May 40 calls that had been written. In other words, the "max pain" principle was at work. This is all just my opinion of course, but I also believe smart money (read "money with inside info") is steadily accumulating at these levels ahead of the ASCO meeting in the 1st week of June. I think that gap to 41 fills easily within a couple days—maybe on Tuesday. A guy can hope, can't he?

[skiracer]

That gap down, IMO, was institutionally orchestrated to protect the bazillion May 40 calls that had been written. In other words, the "max pain" principle was at work. This is all just my opinion of course, but I also believe smart money (read "money with inside info") is steadily accumulating at these levels ahead of the ASCO meeting in the 1st week of June. I think that gap to 41 fills easily within a couple days—maybe on Tuesday. A guy can hope, can't he?

Actually MSN Money shows institutional ownership down by 2 million plus shares but that Carl Icahn bought 47000 shares recently at $37.27. Insiders have been steadily selling off small smaller lots ranging between 1000 to 20000 shares since the beginning of the year. Their relative strength has dropped somewhat over the last few months. I looked at the daily and weekly charts today an on the daily it looks like it could be interpreted as either the start of a 5th wave up or in a corrective b wave up in the a,b,c corrective pattern after the 5th wave. Curious as to what anyone else's take on the wave count would be. I like Icahn being a buyer but don't like the relative strength drop. If it is indeed in a B wave up then I would expect it to drop somewhat this coming week.
I still don't understand Rob's feelings about the stock but something that I do like is in the weekly chart. It is forming that right side of it's cup base, after bottoming, right now an if it does continue up in forming that right side of the cup it will be a nice ride for anyone in there an holding. This is one of my favorite setups but the ingredients that I am looking for just aren't there for me at this time. A number of analysts have given it a moderate sell rating of late.
I just don't see anything there right now that would make me want to establish a position now or Rob's strong feelings about the stock. I would say it's setting up better as a short in the immediate short term at the present time.

[Rob]

IMCL In Holding Pattern

One of the things that's preventing any major moves up or down recently is the anticipated FDA decision on panitumumab, Amgen's entry into the EGFR targeted monoclonal antibody arena. The decision may or may not come out this afternoon. Amgen's BLA was completed March 30, and panitumumab had earlier recieved "fast track" status from the FDA, which means they intend to render their decision within a 60-day time frame. If pmab is approved, look for a spike down in IMCL, followed by a recovery, although somewhat slower. If the BLA is rejected, look for a healthy bunch of buying to ensue in IMCL.

The other near-term catalyst is the presentation of the various clinical trial results at the annual ASCO meeting June 2-6.

Also it is rumored that IMS, a group that independently tracks sales of pharmaceuticals, etc., is reporting $50.1 million of U.S. sales of Erbitux for a four-week period in April. When compared to recent sales, this is a very strong number, no doubt bolstered by Erbitux's recent approval for use in cancers of the head & neck.

[Rob]

Clarification

The decision expected from the FDA shortly re panitumumab is not whether or not to approve the drug, but whether or not the BLA (biological license application) is accepted. If it is, and the drug is ultimately approved, it will probably hit the market in the 2nd half of this year. I just wanted to clarify that.

[Rob]

Earnings

By the way .... ImClone Systems reports earnings tomorrow morning! And the final arguments in the Yeda patent lawsuit were scheduled for today.

[Jack Haddad]

Imcl

Rob, IMCL is bidding north of 38.40. Good luck on your holding.

[Rob]

ImClone (IMCL) News

ImClone Systems Completes Review of Strategic Alternatives and Decides to Remain Independent; Transaction Alternatives Did Not Provide Sufficient Premium to Shareholders

08-10-06 07:00 AM EST | NEW YORK --(BUSINESS WIRE)--

ImClone Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ: IMCL):
-- Joseph L. Fischer to Continue to Lead Company While Board Searches for Permanent CEO

-- Company Announces Annual Meeting Date and Invites Carl Icahn to Join Company's Board of Directors

ImClone Systems Incorporated (NASDAQ: IMCL) announced today that its Board of Directors has completed a review of the Company's strategic alternatives and has made the decision to remain independent. The strategic review, conducted by the Board in conjunction with the Company's financial advisors and management, was initiated in January and included the evaluation of a number of alternatives, including a merger, sale or strategic alliance.

In reaching its decision, the Board noted that the Company possessed a number of significant near- and long-term value drivers, including improving revenue and earnings performance; increasing sales of ERBITUX(R) in its approved indications, a successful launch in head and neck cancer and increased market penetration in colorectal cancer; the prospects for important clinical trial results toward the end of this year and beginning of 2007; and significant potential for the Company's pipeline product candidates.

Commenting on the Board's decision, Joseph L. Fischer, Interim Chief Executive Officer of ImClone Systems, stated: "The Board concluded that the alternatives available, including bids received for the acquisition of the Company, did not match the value potential of ImClone Systems as an independent company. This decision was made in light of significant improvements in the top- and bottom-line performance of the Company over the review period and from the Company's numerous opportunities for growth. The Board, management team and I look forward to continuing to grow and improve ImClone Systems as a business, so that we can continue to be industry leaders in developing novel products for the benefit of the oncology community."

In focusing on remaining independent, the Board will renew its previously announced search for a permanent CEO. Mr. Fischer has agreed to continue running the Company and remain Interim CEO during the search process and to ensure the orderly transition to new leadership.

"Joe has done an outstanding job running the Company during this critical period," said David M. Kies, Chairman of the Board. "Under Joe's leadership we have significantly strengthened the financial condition of the Company, successfully launched ERBITUX in the treatment of head and neck cancer and continued to move clinical development of our pipeline and ERBITUX forward. We are very pleased that Joe has agreed to stay on during the search process and fully expect that he will continue to grow the business, support a program of focused investments and ensure productivity at all levels of the Company."

The Company also announced today that it intends to hold its 2006 Annual Meeting of shareholders on Wednesday, September 20, 2006 at 10:00 AM at the Company's offices in Branchburg, New Jersey. The Company's Board has invited Carl Icahn, who holds approximately 10% of the Company's common stock, to be a member of the Company's slate of director nominees for election at the 2006 Annual Meeting. Mr. Icahn's election as director would be in addition to Alex Denner, who was appointed to the Board in May 2006 following discussions with Mr. Icahn and who has advised the Board that he has recently accepted an offer of employment from Mr. Icahn. The Board will also seek to add to the Board a highly qualified individual to serve as an additional independent director, and has invited Mr. Icahn to suggest an appropriate candidate not affiliated with him.

Conference Call

ImClone Systems will host a conference call with the financial community to discuss the strategic alternative review process on Thursday, August 10, 2006 at 9:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time.

The conference call will be webcast live and may be accessed by visiting ImClone Systems' website at www.imclone.com. A replay of the audio webcast will be available under "Earnings Webcast" in the "Investor Relations" section of the Company's website starting shortly after the call on Thursday, August 10, 2006.

[New-born baby]

Support now R

Rob,

Just a friendly note hoping you'll make money off of this dump in price.

That's bad news for IMCL. She has busted huge support in the premarket, (on huge volume), and that will now be resistance. Looking like it may return to pricing in the 'teens (in the next couple of months). If you haven't already, protect yourself, my friend. Once when I held a stock (KBH) that crashed through support, Ski recommended to me to buy 5 puts for every 100 shares. That proved to be very good advice. Too bad I didn't do it.

Dow Theory says that the initial fall is about one half (or less) of the fall the stock will take. She's dumped $3.28, according to theory, she'll dump another $3.28 or so.

[Rob]

09:09 IMCL Imclone: Color on decision to stay independent; potentially positive results could help drive Erbitux to long-term growth - Rodman & Renshaw (32.37 ) -Update-

Rodman & Renshaw says IMCL announced this morning that it will remain independent after careful review of a number of strategic alternatives, including a merger, sale or strategic alliance. The Board of Directors concluded that the available options, including bids received for acquisition failed to recognize the intrinsic value of IMCL as an independent entity. Firm believes the Co has a solid product in Erbitux, and a progressing pipeline. Firm says co will continue its strong performance via further penetration into head and neck, and potential survival data in colorectal cancer would provide near term value driver. Firm believes IMCL shares have suffered excessively on concerns over non-product news and remain attractive at current prices. Firm says within the next year Erbitux should have survival data in all lines of CRC and pancreatic cancer. Firm believes these potentially-positive results could give Erbitux the necessary drivers for long-term growth.

[Runner]

IMCL needs to hold here or I have a very bearish outlook for it. Next major area of support is around 6.15.

[Rob]

Good News for ImClone (a rarely seen event)

Patent Held by Genentech Is Revoked by Government

New York Times Full Feed - Feb. 22, 2007

The Patent and Trademark Office has decided to revoke a fundamental patent held by Genentech, the biotechnology company, that was at the center of a recent Supreme Court decision.

The patent office's decision could cost Genentech hundreds of millions of dollars in royalties over the next decade but would save a like amount for rivals that are paying the royalties, including MedImmune, Abbott Laboratories, Johnson & Johnson and ImClone Systems.

[. . .]