FA help...

Hey Rob cool charts you have there. Looks like some of then might be slowing down.

[Rob]

EPS Growth

DXPE- possible long signal over 46.00
FTEK- last signal long was 15.30 on 6/01/06 stock up 8% since signal.
CWTR- looks like a short. Price is wedging up
ARXT- is in trend acceleration mode and near all time highs. A push over 49.83 could get interesting with the break out players.
LCAV- looking for gap support to hold.
NIHD- working on first higher low. No entry yet
BJS- looks like a short. Price is wedging.

Runner, I took your above list and created some graphical representations of their earnings (per share) growth over the past 8 quarters, expressed as percentages. These are quarter-over-quarter figures. The source for the numbers is MSN's Moneycentral Web site. A N/A on the source table translates to a 0%. (ARXT had quite a few N/A's.)

As you can see, some of the highest in terms of pct. avg. also have a great deal of volatility. I like to look at stuff like this. Thought I'd toss it out there for your perusal.

Edit: Just for grins and giggles, I did a graph on Google's earnings the same as with those above, and this is what resulted:

[IIC]

You could look at ROE...But what about companies that are great at leveraging?...


I screwed up...When I made the comment about leveraging I should have really been talking about Debt. High debt is not always bad...Think of it as good debt or bad debt.

If a co. borrows money for continuing operations...generally that would be bad...If they borrow money for new equipment which will produce more products in less time at a cheaper unit cost that could be good...assuming they can sell the increased number of units.

Also...margins...vary quite a bit from industry to industry...so I don't think you can use one standard %...Doug

When I get a chance today, I'll see if I can give you a quick rundown on each one..

Mr. M that would be great. I’ve also discovered a stock that I believe has been flying under the radar. It is IBCA. I don’t have time to discus it right now, as I need to leave for a while. Looking forward to your take on some of those FA stocks picks…

[mrmarket]

When I get a chance today, I'll see if I can give you a quick rundown on each one..

DXPE- possible long signal over 46.00
FTEK- last signal long was 15.30 on 6/01/06 stock up 8% since signal.
CWTR- looks like a short. Price is wedging up
ARXT- is in trend acceleration mode and near all time highs. A push over 49.83 could get interesting with the break out players.
LCAV- looking for gap support to hold.
NIHD- working on first higher low. No entry yet
BJS- looks like a short. Price is wedging.

[IIC]

WOW Doug sounds like something that will take a long time to master. I’ve even given the thought of mixing both a little FA and TA together. My swings have done well. I just wanted to diversify a little with a longer-term hold time. Most of my swings have gone on to capture some huge gains. I normally bail when my stop part of the plan hits. I’ve also thought of tracking these stocks in a watch list and capture the trend. I like the TA set up on DXPE above the down sloping upper trendline. I think if this stock can pop over the line it might trigger some interest. What do you think?

I grew up on FA...Probably since I bot my first stock in the late 60's...I don't think it's anything I will ever master...Too subjective going forward for that.

As I mentioned...I know something about a lot of things...But I'm a master of nothing.

"Whatever Works" is a good policy.

DXPE...good outfit here...Wait till the technicals signal a buy.

A talk about FA would be too long here...Plus I am a 2 finger typist

Runner,
Although Fidelity isn't my broker, my online broker provides a Fidelity research service that has just about everything concerning debt, return, assets etc. I don't know if you can get it free from Fidelity. If you Google enough sites you probably can get all the information at no charge. When Fidelity rates these stocks, they're always compared to like stocks. It will say something like "more profitable than it's peers" "less profitable than peers" or it won't comment which might mean it's just average. Same comments used for liquidity, debt, recent price appreciation. They also give what they call a consensus opinion which seems to differ greatly depending upon Google, Yahoo, AOL Finance Etc. Sometimes the opinions are completely opposite. Also a weird thing I noticed with Vectorvest is they can say the same stock is overvalued and underpriced at the same time. How can that be ?

billyjoe

Billy, I have not a clue why they would have them as overvalued and underpriced at the same time. It makes me wonder about the information they are providing. I’m thinking of running a little experiment with these stocks I’ve posted. Since you have told me they appear to be sound on the FA side. I’m going to track them and try to use some TA to pick up some gains.

I have been doing enough research tonight to be dangerous with this FA stuff.

WOW Doug sounds like something that will take a long time to master. I’ve even given the thought of mixing both a little FA and TA together. My swings have done well. I just wanted to diversify a little with a longer-term hold time. Most of my swings have gone on to capture some huge gains. I normally bail when my stop part of the plan hits. I’ve also thought of tracking these stocks in a watch list and capture the trend. I like the TA set up on DXPE above the down sloping upper trendline. I think if this stock can pop over the line it might trigger some interest. What do you think?

[IIC]

Runner...there all different degrees of FA analysis.

Before you jump in you need to decide what is fundamentally important?

How deep do you want to go?...Do you want to analyze balance sheets?...Then 'ya gotta learn how to read them.

Doc said this on his thread:

C. If you want to take your analysis to a higher level of sophistication and complexity, forget the P/E ratio. Because various accounting maneuvers can distort reported earnings, many analysts rely on purer measure of profitability that goes by the acronym EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amoritization).

Now I wouldn't call it a higher level...but it takes quite a bit of time.

You could look at ROE...But what about companies that are great at leveraging?...You'll miss out on those if you put too much weight on it. Plus...you'll have to figure out what is good in a particular industry...IBD tries to make it simple w/ giving it a 17% min. or something...But that is not always the case.

You may also look at what is happening in a particular industry...If it is good...Who are the best? Takes A LOT of reading...And then you have to try to sift out fact from fiction...That is very difficult.

I used to be quite the Fundamentalist...But not really so much anymore...I like cos. with good recent eps and good projections that seem technically ready. But I don't think there is some scan for Fundamentally sound stocks that have a high probabilty of long term advance. Personally...I think fundamentals are more difficult to interpret than technicals...I'm not an expert in either...But I try to combine them even on swing trades and longer term trades...Day trades are a different story in most case for me though.

Also...a long term Fundamentalist needs to have some pretty strong nerves...Take my WITS...bot at an average of 14.49 in April and June 2004...At one point it was in the 9's...I didn't even tell my wife about the drop until it came back. But I believed what I read...As a heavy trade I don't think I'd do that again...But even so...I'm only up about 50% in 2 years...And it really isn't a Hot company in a Hot Group...When i saw it dip down under 20 the other day my heart sank...To be honest it was tough...I thought to myself...2 years down the drain???...But I still believe I'll see my target of 100%.

Anyway...I'm sure this post is not much help...If technical trading is working for you...I'd suggest just sticking with it...Best...Doug(IIC)

[billyjoe]

Runner,
Although Fidelity isn't my broker, my online broker provides a Fidelity research service that has just about everything concerning debt, return, assets etc. I don't know if you can get it free from Fidelity. If you Google enough sites you probably can get all the information at no charge. When Fidelity rates these stocks, they're always compared to like stocks. It will say something like "more profitable than it's peers" "less profitable than peers" or it won't comment which might mean it's just average. Same comments used for liquidity, debt, recent price appreciation. They also give what they call a consensus opinion which seems to differ greatly depending upon Google, Yahoo, AOL Finance Etc. Sometimes the opinions are completely opposite. Also a weird thing I noticed with Vectorvest is they can say the same stock is overvalued and underpriced at the same time. How can that be ?

billyjoe

I must be sounding like an idiot but this is all new to me.

Billjoe, I’m not following about finding sources that rate debt, profitability, and the other stuff you mention. I plan to open 4-5 positions in this account. Do you know of a web site that explains what you’re talking about?

[billyjoe]

Runner,
Try to find sources that rate debt, profitability, use of assets:ROI ROA ROE , liquidity. So far the only ones I'd cross off would be CWTR and FCL. These have less debt than others in competing industries : LCAV LVS HANS BUCY NSR.
Most of your list utilize their assets well with above average return on investments, assets, and equity. High rated in those areas are :LCAV LVS NTRI DXPE HANS BJS FTEK ISRG NIHD NSR. That's a start. You've got some good ones in there , but you can't buy them all or can you? Just remembered, Fidelity has a consensus "buy" rating only on FTEK and NTRI and rate all the others at outperform.

billyjoe

Runner,
You must have run these all through Vectorvest. The first 5 are rated a buy, the last 8, a hold. The market gurus at Validea go for these : NTRI DXPE HANS BJS and FTEK. Riskgrades says they're all average risk, but Vectorvest has several at high risk. Barcharts has most all but CWTR as a long term buy. Will edit in more later.

billyjoe

Billyjoe, I don’t have Vectorvest I ran a simple yhoo scan with heavy on the earnings growth. Now what is it that makes a FA guy tic? You know about us swing traders. We care only about the chart. I have some interest in putting together a longer-term port. Where can I learn about this FA stuff? I’d even go with a book if it can’t be found on the web. I’ve been lost looking into web sites.