Dow 10K or 12K ???

[New-born baby]

Double bottom target

Rob,
Yup, I was wrong, BIG TIME!
That double bottom breakout on the chart you posted has a target of
11,875. WOW! Just 25 points to go to achieve the target. Of course your chart is the daily, so it does not take into account any pattern on the weekly.

We need to remember that our predictions were made June 8. On June 8 even the first bottom had not been put in.

[skiracer]

Rob,
Yup, I was wrong, BIG TIME!
That double bottom breakout on the chart you posted has a target of
11,875. WOW! Just 25 points to go to achieve the target. Of course your chart is the daily, so it does not take into account any pattern on the weekly.

We need to remember that our predictions were made June 8. On June 8 even the first bottom had not been put in.

I wouldn't be counting any chickens yet. It wouldn't take much to knock the bottom out of any of these markets. Big divergence between the DOW and the S&P and NAS. If the other two can play some catchup then the DOW might go farther but without the NAS I don't see how it can sustain the trend upward.
We are living on the edge of a razor geo-politically. The middle-east, N. Korea and the nations around it, and any number of other places where a terroristic act could take place and have a dramatic affect on the markets depending on the severity of the act. On top of that there is alot of mounting debt from ARMS and home equity loans that are defaulting. There is a ton of negativity out there but the DOW keeps going up. I'm not necessarily a bear or a bull but personally I'm amazed that the DOW has reached these heights. When it does it only makes the corrections that much more dramatic and severe. But I am still holding two open longs positions at the present time for the short term. I find it hard to forecast the direction until it shows me which way it really wants to go.

[Rob]

We need to remember that our predictions were made June 8. On June 8 even the first bottom had not been put in.

A fact that makes the prediction of those 35% who were bullish even more remarkably correct.

Specifically, I said on 6/8, ". . . the Fed will finish tightening before the Dow loses another 700~800 points. And when Bernanke says, 'Read my lips, no more rate hikes,' the Dow will take off and won't look back for a while."

The fed last raised the funds rate (25 basis points) on June 29, and when they met on Aug. 8, they paused. The chart thus far shows what has happened since early August.

Ol' Rob may not get it right every time, but he does seem to be smarter than the average bear. (No pun intended.)

[Rob]

I wouldn't be counting any chickens yet.

I'm not selling any bearskins yet, but the DOW only needs to gain another 1.26% (before losing 15.62%).

[New-born baby]

A fact that makes the prediction of those 35% who were bullish even more remarkably correct.

Specifically, I said on 6/8, ". . . the Fed will finish tightening before the Dow loses another 700~800 points. And when Bernanke says, 'Read my lips, no more rate hikes,' the Dow will take off and won't look back for a while."

The fed last raised the funds rate (25 basis points) on June 29, and when they met on Aug. 8, they paused. The chart thus far shows what has happened since early August.

Ol' Rob may not get it right every time, but he does seem to be smarter than the average bear. (No pun intended.)

Yup, you were right, Yogi

[peanuts]

Ol' Rob may not get it right every time, but he does seem to be smarter than the average bear. (No pun intended.)

Rob,

You're smarter than the average anything. There is just no way to compare you to anything average. I'll rate you at 5 stars

Keep it up!

(I voted for the bulls)

[Rob]

Wow, Peanuts. Not sure I merit all 5, but what a nice thought.




Trying to keep my finger
on the pulse of the market ...

[Rob]

Tantalizingly close to 12,000 now. Can't you just taste it? The question is: what happens if and when it hits? A 10-15% correction? A strong surge higher? A sideways trading range? I'm leaning towards correction, but it's going to be largely influenced by this Q3 reporting season.

[dmk112]

I didn't vote, but it will hit 12,000 before it will hit 10k.

[Rob]

Less than 27 points to go ... and counting.

[Tatnic]

Yeah, I know; you don't like my opinion. But I have an idea you'll see 8300 Dow by October 30.

guess we'd throw you in the "bearish camp".

[jiesen]

I didn't vote, but it will hit 12,000 before it will hit 10k.

I'm with DMK. I'll go out on a limb here and say the dow will get to 12k first.

[dmk112]

I'm with DMK. I'll go out on a limb here and say the dow will get to 12k first.

It's a gamble, but I think its a strong possibility.

[Rob]

Ka-Ching !

Ka-CHING !!!

[jiesen]

well done, Rob! a great call on the Dow. now where does it go from here?