Grossly Undervalued Stocks

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  • billyjoe
    Senior Member
    • Nov 2003
    • 9014

    Grossly Undervalued Stocks

    ------It may be time to start looking for undervalued stocks. You'd have to believe there's lots of them available. How do you find undervalued stocks? Google led me to several sources and each had a little or in some cases a big difference in their definition. Here's something gleaned from at least 11 different sources. Sites are listed below.
    ------Undervalued stocks or value oriented investing. Stocks rich with no debt. Those breaking above long term downward trendlines.
    ------Market price is below intrinsic value.Valuation changes when there is an increase or decrease in price , earnings , debt , sales , or their market sector has fallen out of favor.
    ------Has been depressed due to short term market concerns or may have one depressed fundamental whose uncertainty is keeping the price low.
    ------Price is at a low historical level despite long term positive ROA,ROE,ROI , and sales growth is greater than it's same industry peers . Short ratio as well as number of outstanding shares also must be considered.
    ------Benjamin Graham in "The Intelligent Investor" looked for stocks trading at a minimum 33% discount to the Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) which he defines as current assets-liabilities/shares outstanding.
    ------Warren Buffet , a student of the Graham theory of investing uses a minimum 5 year track record of ROE as Net Income/Shareholder Equity.
    Debt/ Equity ratio - Total Liability/Shareholder Equity. He also uses a 5 year history of Profit Margin = Net Income/Net Sales. IPO must be at least 10 years old. Must have an "economic moat" a competitive edge or monopoly on it's peers . He requires intrinsic value to be 25% above market capitalization.
    -------Some value investors exclusively use a price/book ratio or Mkt.Price/ Value of Assets. If the P/B ratio is less than 1 , the assets may be overvalued. If they are value investors stay away. Overvalued stocks often show low ROE and high P/B ratio.
    -------P/B ratio doesn't take into consideration intangibles such as : brand name value , goodwill , patent value . Therefore it won't work in evaluating service oriented businesses.
    -------value stocks "little known stocks with lack of buzz or publicity'"
    -------some use the dividend yield theory to determine undervaluation. The stocks will be within 10% of historically high dividend yield.
    -------another source uses these guidelines
    1. low P/E 2. low price relative to cash flow 3. low price/book value 4. low or no debt 5. uptrending earnings 6. high inside ownership
    -------value stocks with little publicity probably will have little or no analysts covering them
    -------many value stock investors assume their picks will rebound within a 24 month time period. Therefore they may be considered long term investors
    -------Some value investors look for stocks with a one time glitch in earnings or sales or maybe an unusual event such as a major lawsuit or bad publicity that has beaten down an otherwise high quality stock.

    Sources :
    Quarterly guide containing stock picks, company data and charts from our Value Investing Model, with performance results and a free-trial offer.

    secure.globeadvisor.com

    sify.com



    stockgarden.com
    betterinvesting.org
    technicalstockpicks.com
    dogsofthedow.com
    vectorvest.com
    magicformulastockinvesting.com
    I'll be back later with a list of 10 stocks that seem to be undervalued by at least 33%.
    ------------billyjoe
  • billyjoe
    Senior Member
    • Nov 2003
    • 9014

    #2
    Several of the sites I visited when googling "undervalued stocks" included lists of so called undervalued stocks. How these were determined was never specifically explained. Using several of these stocks, I ran them through a site that seems to be highly respected (hint) it may be one listed as a source in the previous post. It's hard getting agreement on these stocks. For instance a stock listed as most undervalued by over 70% on one site was considered within 3% of it's value at today's closing price on a competing site. These stocks are not recommended as buys by me in fact most are rated as a sell on many services. Do some further research and you'll find some bargains.

    Stock ---- Closing Price ----- Undervalued %

    1. FDG-------32.52 ----------- -68.15%
    2. BRNC------19.03------------ -55.17
    3. PARL------ 10.08------------ -53.78
    4. RES------- 21.74------------ -51.70
    5. MIND------ 12.13----------- -47.74
    6. BMHC----- 26.24------------ -45.25
    7.WHIT------ 7.90------------- -44.76
    8. OVTI------20.72------------- -43.05
    9. HRLY------10.62------------- -35.68
    10. KFY------19.15------------- -32.12

    I own 3 of these and hold 1 at a profit. This is coincidental as I had no idea of the % until my calculations. PARL was a big surprise. I've never heard of 5 of these stocks before today. If anyone is interested I'll try to come up with another list tomorrow.
    -------billyjoe

    Comment

    • mrmarket
      Administrator
      • Sep 2003
      • 5971

      #3
      Great philosophy when the market is not cooperating...but you really need patience.
      =============================

      I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

      - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

      Comment

      • New-born baby
        Senior Member
        • Apr 2004
        • 6095

        #4
        Chump Change

        Originally posted by billyjoe
        Several of the sites I visited when googling "undervalued stocks" included lists of so called undervalued stocks. How these were determined was never specifically explained. Using several of these stocks, I ran them through a site that seems to be highly respected (hint) it may be one listed as a source in the previous post. It's hard getting agreement on these stocks. For instance a stock listed as most undervalued by over 70% on one site was considered within 3% of it's value at today's closing price on a competing site. These stocks are not recommended as buys by me in fact most are rated as a sell on many services. Do some further research and you'll find some bargains.

        Stock ---- Closing Price ----- Undervalued %

        1. FDG-------32.52 ----------- -68.15%
        2. BRNC------19.03------------ -55.17
        3. PARL------ 10.08------------ -53.78
        4. RES------- 21.74------------ -51.70
        5. MIND------ 12.13----------- -47.74
        6. BMHC----- 26.24------------ -45.25
        7.WHIT------ 7.90------------- -44.76
        8. OVTI------20.72------------- -43.05
        9. HRLY------10.62------------- -35.68
        10. KFY------19.15------------- -32.12

        I own 3 of these and hold 1 at a profit. This is coincidental as I had no idea of the % until my calculations. PARL was a big surprise. I've never heard of 5 of these stocks before today. If anyone is interested I'll try to come up with another list tomorrow.
        -------billyjoe
        BillyJoe,
        Let me tell you how they arrive at the percentage of "undervalue." You see, the analyst bought all of the stocks on the list. However, he paid more than the current price, and so he figures the percentage needed for him to get out even, or for a small gain. Take PARL for example: he says it is undervalued by 53.78%. Well, he paid $43.60--bought right at the top, he did!--and he's really been burned. So he doesn't say, "I was a chump not to read the chart before I bought." No. He says, "You folks are chumps to sell PARL before I could take a profit out of it." That is how the analysts arrive at the figures for under valued stocks.
        pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

        Comment

        • Gatorman
          No Posting allowed; invalid email
          • Dec 2004
          • 448

          #5
          Originally posted by billyjoe
          Several of the sites I visited when googling "undervalued stocks" included lists of so called undervalued stocks. How these were determined was never specifically explained. Using several of these stocks, I ran them through a site that seems to be highly respected (hint) it may be one listed as a source in the previous post. It's hard getting agreement on these stocks. For instance a stock listed as most undervalued by over 70% on one site was considered within 3% of it's value at today's closing price on a competing site. These stocks are not recommended as buys by me in fact most are rated as a sell on many services. Do some further research and you'll find some bargains.

          Stock ---- Closing Price ----- Undervalued %

          1. FDG-------32.52 ----------- -68.15%
          2. BRNC------19.03------------ -55.17
          3. PARL------ 10.08------------ -53.78
          4. RES------- 21.74------------ -51.70
          5. MIND------ 12.13----------- -47.74
          6. BMHC----- 26.24------------ -45.25
          7.WHIT------ 7.90------------- -44.76
          8. OVTI------20.72------------- -43.05
          9. HRLY------10.62------------- -35.68
          10. KFY------19.15------------- -32.12

          I own 3 of these and hold 1 at a profit. This is coincidental as I had no idea of the % until my calculations. PARL was a big surprise. I've never heard of 5 of these stocks before today. If anyone is interested I'll try to come up with another list tomorrow.
          -------billyjoe
          Would be definitely interested in seeing tomorrow's list.

          Comment

          • billyjoe
            Senior Member
            • Nov 2003
            • 9014

            #6
            New-born,
            As far as I know analysts didn't determine the undervalued price based on what they paid , but from super secret formulas known only to them. If anyone can find 2 different sources that value stocks identically I'd be amazed. It's like having several accountants figure your income tax and come out with the same numbers.
            --------billyjoe

            Comment

            • New-born baby
              Senior Member
              • Apr 2004
              • 6095

              #7
              Originally posted by billyjoe
              New-born,
              As far as I know analysts didn't determine the undervalued price based on what they paid , but from super secret formulas known only to them. If anyone can find 2 different sources that value stocks identically I'd be amazed. It's like having several accountants figure your income tax and come out with the same numbers.
              --------billyjoe
              BillyJoe,
              Don't you see? The reason that they cannot agree on the undervalue of "undervalued stocks" is precisely the reason I gave you: it is simply a self-serving list.
              pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

              Comment

              • billyjoe
                Senior Member
                • Nov 2003
                • 9014

                #8
                New-born,
                Mine did not all come from lists and many I submitted for final analysis were determined to be fairly valued or over valued . And who is the "they" you refer to?
                ---------billyjoe

                Comment

                • New-born baby
                  Senior Member
                  • Apr 2004
                  • 6095

                  #9
                  Originally posted by billyjoe
                  New-born,
                  Mine did not all come from lists and many I submitted for final analysis were determined to be fairly valued or over valued . And who is the "they" you refer to?
                  ---------billyjoe
                  Analysts. Jimmy "Eugene" Cramer. Etc.
                  pivot calculator *current oil price*My stock picking method*Charting Lesson of the Week:BEAR FLAG PATTERN

                  Comment

                  • IIC
                    Senior Member
                    • Nov 2003
                    • 14938

                    #10
                    OK...What is your definition of Undervalued???...Give me your criteria and I'll give you a list over the weekend...Doug(IIC)
                    "Trade What Is Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen"

                    Find Tomorrow's Winners At SharpTraders.com

                    Follow Me On Twitter

                    Comment

                    • billyjoe
                      Senior Member
                      • Nov 2003
                      • 9014

                      #11
                      New-born,
                      Google shows 2,200,000 references under "undervalued stocks". If they are all analysts that means one of every 137 U.S. residents is an analyst. None of the 10 on my list came from Cramer although I'm sure he's mentioned a few of them over the past couple of years. Just realized it probably includes European and Far Eastern as well as Central and South American stocks.
                      ------billyjoe

                      Comment

                      • billyjoe
                        Senior Member
                        • Nov 2003
                        • 9014

                        #12
                        Gator,
                        Here's all I've got. Notice 7 Mr.Market picks in the bunch.

                        Stock-------Price When Checked 6/28/06------% undervalued

                        ORCT--------------8.99-------------------62.49%
                        RAIL--------------51.50-------------------57.12
                        ALDA-------------25.62------------------- 50.80
                        TRLG-------------16.48--------------------49.34
                        ELOS-------------20.58--------------------48.29
                        BVF---------------21.93-------------------48.05
                        PWEI--------------28.94-------------------46.89
                        PTSC---------------1.02-------------------46.32
                        CHAR---------------5.73-------------------45.06
                        FTO---------------27.64-------------------44.76
                        MTEX--------------11.07-------------------44.68
                        VPHM---------------8.59-------------------44.04
                        KBH---------------45.64--------------------42.05
                        FRGB--------------84.26--------------------41.94
                        DEBS--------------24.25-------------------41.73
                        NSS---------------51.44-------------------40.83
                        MFLX--------------31.20-------------------40.45
                        TOL---------------26.02-------------------40.40
                        PRX---------------18.41--------------------40.38
                        ALJ---------------29.83--------------------39.20
                        BBD---------------27.80--------------------39.13
                        CECO-------------29.77--------------------38.22
                        KG----------------15.99--------------------37.76
                        UNTD--------------11.41-------------------35.83
                        NUTR--------------15.10-------------------33.54
                        PNCL---------------6.54--------------------32.85
                        AEOS--------------32.77-------------------32.77

                        ---------billyjoe

                        Comment

                        • Michaelk005

                          #13
                          Originally posted by billyjoe
                          New-born,
                          As far as I know analysts didn't determine the undervalued price based on what they paid , but from super secret formulas known only to them. If anyone can find 2 different sources that value stocks identically I'd be amazed. It's like having several accountants figure your income tax and come out with the same numbers.
                          --------billyjoe
                          The markets job is to sift out peoples under/over valued oppinions of prices.
                          The market prices are made up of an equal disagreement on value and an equal agreement on price. If something is rated as bullish, does it not mean that all the bears havnt been questioned?
                          Could this formula be asking only a certain group of people, and not another?

                          Just my opinion.

                          Comment

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