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Today I sold PTSI at 29.35. That’s an 18% gain over my purchase price of 24.84. Now some of you skeptics might think that an 18% gain in the 4 years that I patiently held this stock is not really too terrific. But you must look at the facts. Over the same holding period, the S&P 500 was only up 15.6%. That’s right. I beat the market again.
I’m going to miss PTSI, it was the oldest holding in my trading portfolio. I am particularly proud of this trade because it was down quite a bit during the time I held it and many “experts” on Elite Trader, IBD forum and elsewhere claimed that I was a fool for holding it. Let’s see if I can Google up some of these quotations.
Ahhh…here’s one from Elite Trader:
catmango
Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 230
05-30-03 05:18 PM
Mr Market --
After having read through your stock picking model, one question sticks out. You clearly state in your model to "Buy this stock. In a typical bull market, the stock will, on average, achieve a 15% gain within 4 to 6 weeks. Sell the stock and repeat the process." And yet, in your "open positions" table you list six stocks (PTSI, ACMR, FRED, AXL, OHB, and CHKE) that have an average loss of 15.8% and that you've held for over a year.
By holding those positions for so long you're going against your model, tying up capital, and potentially compounding unrealized losses. Can you please reconcile this? Wouldn't it have been better to dump these stocks after 6 weeks and free up your capital to put it into more productive positions?
If you add your current holdings that are older than 6 weeks to your closed trades (since the start of 2002), you have 27 trades for an average gain of 8.35%. Still impressive, but roughly half the return of what you're claiming.
Obviously I have made a fool out of this “genius” from Elite Trader.
Here’s another one:
Posted by quantpatterns on 10-30-03 03:49 PM:
MrMarket,
Have you ever heard of William O'Neil of IBD? I think you have similar growth oriented investing styles, except he pays attention to technicals as well.
He has like 5-8% stop-loss rule. It's just good money management. Let's say you are in a losing position and you keep holding it, then you are missing out other great growth opportunities. You cut your losses fast. Then redeploy those capital for the next growth story.
I think you get the idea. PTSI was a whipping boy for the $$$MR. MARKET$$$ wannabees, but at the end of the day, I have proven myself superior to them all.
That makes 82 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. I am HUGE! I am easily the greatest stock picker on the planet. No one can match this record of stock picking accuracy. No one can play golf on Mothers Day and live to brag about it. No one can wear different color socks to work and take their shoes off in the office. No one, that is, except the great $$$MR. MARKET$$$.
Now then..onward. I’ll have a brand new $$$MR. MARKET$$$ winner very soon. Have a wonderful 4th of July Holiday!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$$$MR. MARKET$$$ Loves PTSI
by: mr_market63 (42/M)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 04/15/02 04:08 pm
Msg: 277 of 300
I bought PTSI (P.A.M. Transportation) today at 24.84. I will sell it in four to six weeks at 28.88. Now you're probably all surprised by this pick, but let me give you my reasoning:
„h Momentum: PTSI stock price is up 234% in the last 12 months giving it an RS of 98.
„h Valuation: PE is 20.75. Even at this low PE, take this year¡¦s avg earnings estimate of $1.33, add $0.13 per share, which is how much they have beaten expectations the last several quarters, and this gives you $1.46. Multiply it buy 20.75 and you get $30.30/share.
„h Not much downside risk unless economy takes a dump, which it won¡¦t.
„h Well positioned for rotational inflow of funds from tech stocks.
„h Operating margins are 9.4%. This is very good for a steady Eddy business like transportation.
„h Return on Equity = 15%
„h Revenues up 10% from last year
Here is some more info on PTSI:
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc., organized in June 1986, operating through its wholly owned subsidiaries, is an irregular route, common and contract motor carrier. The Company is authorized to transport general commodities throughout the continental United States and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, pursuant to operating authorities granted by the former Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC), various state regulatory agencies and Canadian regulatory agencies. The freight consists primarily of automotive parts, consumer goods, such as general retail store merchandise, and products from the manufacturing sector, such as heating and air conditioning units. All freight is transported as truckload quantities.
This is primarily a bet on the economy recovering, and signs point to this actually occurring. Sales have grown an average of 15% over the last 5 years. The company has been profitable for each of the last 16 quarters.
Robert W. Weaver, President of the Company, commented, ``We are very pleased to report record results for our year ended December 31, 2001 - a year in which the industry and the Company endured numerous challenges. While many companies saw revenue and earnings decline, we finished with a 10% increase in revenues and a 15% increase in earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2001. For the quarter ended December 31, 2001 revenues increased 10.4% and earnings per share increased from $.28 to $.30. Fourth quarter earnings were impacted by a one time write-down in equipment values of $523,000, or the equivalent of $.04 per share. This write-down was primarily related to equipment acquired in the acquisition of Decker Transport, Inc. that did not have guaranteed residual values.''
The stock is experiencing very good accumulation recently even though it is at a resistance point. The great thing about low volume stocks is that good earnings or economic data can easily shatter these resistance points. There is no resistance in the area just above the stock price of $25.63
I am HUGE!!!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
I’m going to miss PTSI, it was the oldest holding in my trading portfolio. I am particularly proud of this trade because it was down quite a bit during the time I held it and many “experts” on Elite Trader, IBD forum and elsewhere claimed that I was a fool for holding it. Let’s see if I can Google up some of these quotations.
Ahhh…here’s one from Elite Trader:
catmango
Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 230
05-30-03 05:18 PM
Mr Market --
After having read through your stock picking model, one question sticks out. You clearly state in your model to "Buy this stock. In a typical bull market, the stock will, on average, achieve a 15% gain within 4 to 6 weeks. Sell the stock and repeat the process." And yet, in your "open positions" table you list six stocks (PTSI, ACMR, FRED, AXL, OHB, and CHKE) that have an average loss of 15.8% and that you've held for over a year.
By holding those positions for so long you're going against your model, tying up capital, and potentially compounding unrealized losses. Can you please reconcile this? Wouldn't it have been better to dump these stocks after 6 weeks and free up your capital to put it into more productive positions?
If you add your current holdings that are older than 6 weeks to your closed trades (since the start of 2002), you have 27 trades for an average gain of 8.35%. Still impressive, but roughly half the return of what you're claiming.
Obviously I have made a fool out of this “genius” from Elite Trader.
Here’s another one:
Posted by quantpatterns on 10-30-03 03:49 PM:
MrMarket,
Have you ever heard of William O'Neil of IBD? I think you have similar growth oriented investing styles, except he pays attention to technicals as well.
He has like 5-8% stop-loss rule. It's just good money management. Let's say you are in a losing position and you keep holding it, then you are missing out other great growth opportunities. You cut your losses fast. Then redeploy those capital for the next growth story.
I think you get the idea. PTSI was a whipping boy for the $$$MR. MARKET$$$ wannabees, but at the end of the day, I have proven myself superior to them all.
That makes 82 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. I am HUGE! I am easily the greatest stock picker on the planet. No one can match this record of stock picking accuracy. No one can play golf on Mothers Day and live to brag about it. No one can wear different color socks to work and take their shoes off in the office. No one, that is, except the great $$$MR. MARKET$$$.
Now then..onward. I’ll have a brand new $$$MR. MARKET$$$ winner very soon. Have a wonderful 4th of July Holiday!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$$$MR. MARKET$$$ Loves PTSI
by: mr_market63 (42/M)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 04/15/02 04:08 pm
Msg: 277 of 300
I bought PTSI (P.A.M. Transportation) today at 24.84. I will sell it in four to six weeks at 28.88. Now you're probably all surprised by this pick, but let me give you my reasoning:
„h Momentum: PTSI stock price is up 234% in the last 12 months giving it an RS of 98.
„h Valuation: PE is 20.75. Even at this low PE, take this year¡¦s avg earnings estimate of $1.33, add $0.13 per share, which is how much they have beaten expectations the last several quarters, and this gives you $1.46. Multiply it buy 20.75 and you get $30.30/share.
„h Not much downside risk unless economy takes a dump, which it won¡¦t.
„h Well positioned for rotational inflow of funds from tech stocks.
„h Operating margins are 9.4%. This is very good for a steady Eddy business like transportation.
„h Return on Equity = 15%
„h Revenues up 10% from last year
Here is some more info on PTSI:
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc., organized in June 1986, operating through its wholly owned subsidiaries, is an irregular route, common and contract motor carrier. The Company is authorized to transport general commodities throughout the continental United States and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, pursuant to operating authorities granted by the former Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC), various state regulatory agencies and Canadian regulatory agencies. The freight consists primarily of automotive parts, consumer goods, such as general retail store merchandise, and products from the manufacturing sector, such as heating and air conditioning units. All freight is transported as truckload quantities.
This is primarily a bet on the economy recovering, and signs point to this actually occurring. Sales have grown an average of 15% over the last 5 years. The company has been profitable for each of the last 16 quarters.
Robert W. Weaver, President of the Company, commented, ``We are very pleased to report record results for our year ended December 31, 2001 - a year in which the industry and the Company endured numerous challenges. While many companies saw revenue and earnings decline, we finished with a 10% increase in revenues and a 15% increase in earnings per share for the year ended December 31, 2001. For the quarter ended December 31, 2001 revenues increased 10.4% and earnings per share increased from $.28 to $.30. Fourth quarter earnings were impacted by a one time write-down in equipment values of $523,000, or the equivalent of $.04 per share. This write-down was primarily related to equipment acquired in the acquisition of Decker Transport, Inc. that did not have guaranteed residual values.''
The stock is experiencing very good accumulation recently even though it is at a resistance point. The great thing about low volume stocks is that good earnings or economic data can easily shatter these resistance points. There is no resistance in the area just above the stock price of $25.63
I am HUGE!!!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
. Traders of the future will worship the ground that the inner circle members walk upon. The Vulcans will rule the stock trading world!
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