AXR ==> The Independence Day Winner!

[New-born baby]

Lye...

You are a genius. You called that bounce better than Red Auerbach ever could!

Let's look at the AXR chart to see what we can expect in the next few weeks. First, AXR has performed exactly as expected on the chart. You can see it here. So we here have the expected bounce. But what's likely to happen next? The weekly chart shows us that

1. Another head and shoulders top is forming. We have had enough recent experience with MFLX and BBD and now AXR to know that a head and shoulders top is not a place to take a long, and that the formation should be respected.
2. We also note that the support beneath today's close is very, very thin. It is not going to withstand a hammering.
3. It seems possible that AXR may bounce a little higher here, but it is most likely a false rally heading for lower prices. The rally should stall around $47 or so maximum. Dave may very well be correct in his $44 figure. Usually the right shoulder is lower than the left. His suggestion is probably going to prove to be spot on.

I would conclude that any hope that AXR is going to recover from this fall in Summer or even Fall 2006 is pretty unlikely. Yes, I could be wrong. But the chart, at this point, offers no such hope.

[Runner]

NB, you may be correct. Here is my trend read on AXR for what its worth.

Monthly- key reversal with possible tweezer bottom. Last months low needs to hold

Weekly- downward pressure on week of 7/7/06. Stock may be trying to find support off Junes low.

Daily- shows first pull back on 7/10 with trigger short @ 49.35. Trend then accelerated to the downside. Shorts very well may have noticed the support and began to cover today.

Watch for the drifting or possible wedging on the chart. If this occurs with out any bull power this one could give another leg out to the downside. Not to also mention the markets weakness may be setting up for the shorts on the next bounce…

[Lyehopper]

It has to go UP to form a right shoulder.... RIGHT?

....Another head and shoulders top is forming. We have had enough recent experience with MFLX and BBD and now AXR to know that a head and shoulders top is not a place to take a long, and that the formation should be respected.

It has not formed a right shoulder yet NBB.... And so what if it does, it'll need to move upward to form that shoulder.... AXR can form a right shoulder 11% off the $65 high and still give $$$Mr Market$$$ his 15% gain (thus my prior comment about his entry).... I think he'll get it pretty soon. It bounced quickly off the 61.8% line Friday on double volume.... I like AXR (long) here into the mid $50's and maybe $60. I'm trading it.

[New-born baby]

Lyebaby

It has not formed a right shoulder yet NBB.... And so what if it does, it'll need to move upward to form that shoulder.... AXR can form a right shoulder 11% off the $65 high and still give $$$Mr Market$$$ his 15% gain (thus my prior comment about his entry).... I think he'll get it pretty soon. It bounced quickly off the 61.8% line Friday on double volume.... I like AXR (long) here into the mid $50's and maybe $60. I'm trading it.

Lye,
Well, the right shoulder, if it forms one, has to be less than the head: so you are correct it is possible that AXR will rise to $60. My view is to look at the left shoulder ($47.50 or so), and guessimate the height of the right shoulder. Usually the right shoulder is lower than the left, but not always. A textbook example would be that the right and left shoulders are exactly the same height.

Here's a quote from Stockcharts:
Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.

Here's a quote from www.incademy.com:
The right shoulder is formed by a rally in the price to a level roughly equal with that of the left shoulder. Again it can be slightly higher or lower but definitely below the high achieved by the head.

www.recognia : ***************
Is volume important in a head and shoulders top?

Volume is extremely important for this pattern.

For a head and shoulders top the volume pattern is as follows.

Volume is highest when the left shoulder is forming. In fact, volume is often expanding as the uptrend continues and more and more buyers want to get in.


Volume is lowest on the right shoulder as investors see a reversal happening. Experts say low volume levels on the right shoulder are a strong sign of a reversal.


In the head portion of the price pattern, volume falls somewhere between the strength of the left shoulder and weakness of the right shoulder. Volume often increases when the neckline is broken as the reversal is now complete and downside pressure begins in earnest. In fact, Yager notes that one of the key characteristics she looks for in a Head and Shoulders Top is very high volume on the breakout.
Although volume is important, experts warn us not to get caught up in the precise number of shares being traded.1 What we're looking for are changes in the rate of trading.




What are the details that I should pay attention to in the head and shoulders top?

There are certain characteristics that experts like to see in the pattern.


1. Symmetry - The right and left shoulders should peak at approximately the same price level. In addition, the shoulders are often about the same distance from the head. In other words, there should be about the same amount of time between the development of the top of the left shoulder and the head as between the head and the top of the right shoulder. In the real world, the formation will seldom be perfectly symmetrical. Sometimes one shoulder will be higher than the other or take more time to develop. Experts warn, however, that if a shoulder reaches the level of the head, you're no longer looking at a head and shoulders top. *************


Best wishes with all of your trading, including this one. I am not trading it either long or short.

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Well, the right shoulder, if it forms one, has to be less than the head: so you are correct it is possible that AXR will rise to $60......

Best wishes with all of your trading, including this one. I am not trading it either long or short.

Come on!.... Where's your sense of adventure dude?!!!! LOL!

btw.... Great call on 7/10 for the (probable) 61.8% Fib Retracement bounce.... I didn't read the post till you re-posted the link. It reversed within.... What, 16 pennies of your prediction?....You are HUGE NBB!.... AND....Thanks for the TA.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=58256&postcount=2611

[New-born baby]

Old Age

Come on!.... Where's your sense of adventure dude?!!!! LOL!

It's old age, Lye. In my old age, I am becoming more and more careful with my trades.

[lalitha0]

AXR starting to come back to life!

News:

Amrep Declares Special 85-Cent Dividend
Monday July 17, 6:41 am ET
Amrep Board Declares Special Dividend of 85 Cents Per Share

PRINCETON, N.J. (AP) -- Amrep Corp. said Monday its board declared a special cash dividend of 85 cents per share, payable Aug. 16 to shareholders of record at July 31.

This dividend follows special cash payouts of 55 cents, 40 cents, and 25 cents per share that were declared following the close of Amrep's last three fiscal years ending April 30, 2005, 2004 and 2003. In addition, the company also paid a special cash dividend of $3.50 per common share at the beginning of 2006.

Amrep's AMREP Southwest Inc. subsidiary is a landholder and real estate developer in New Mexico, and its Kable Media Services Inc. subsidiary distributes magazines to wholesalers and provides subscription fulfillment and related services to publishers and others.

I added more to bring my cost down.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Lalitha

[studentofthemarket]

Wow

News:

I added more to bring my cost down.



Lalitha

WOW again. I did that once years ago. I'll never buy on the way down ever again. Even though there have been several instances where I'd have done OK in hindsight. I just won't ever do that again.

Your "average" cost, means nothing. The money you put in is what matters.

Good Luck to you.

student

[casinoboy3]

This stock sucks.... I'm glad I don't own it anymore and I didn't lose another 10% today. I would like to short it.... which leads me to the question... I have an IRA with Ameritrade, it says I must sign up for a margin account before I can do that. What does that entail besides filling out some paperwork? I understand it is basically borrowing money, so I'm assuming its gonna cost me. Is it worth it? Thanks

[Lyehopper]

This stock sucks.... I'm glad I don't own it anymore and I didn't lose another 10% today. I would like to short it.... which leads me to the question... I have an IRA with Ameritrade, it says I must sign up for a margin account before I can do that. What does that entail besides filling out some paperwork? I understand it is basically borrowing money, so I'm assuming its gonna cost me. Is it worth it? Thanks

You can't trade with margin with an IRA account.

What you need to do is open a separate account that is margin'd.... Then short sell till your heart is content.... I love to short sell personally, it's a lot of fun!

[New-born baby]

I added more to bring my cost down.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Lalitha

Lalitha,
You just got caught in a bull trap. The divy announcement was bait to lead bulls into a trap. Many experts warn that one should never average down. And I would say never buy a momo stock that doesn't have options, because if it loses the momo, there just isn't any help at all.

[lemonjello]

Wuwoh

Considering the high percent - 70% - of insiders in this stock, I wouldn't call it a bull trap (usually something produced by market forces). Special dividends with controlling insiders followed by a drop is suspicious to say the least.

But hey, at least the drop seems to be decelerating.

Is it still on the IBD 100?

Good luck to AXR longs.

Lalitha,
You just got caught in a bull trap. The divy announcement was bait to lead bulls into a trap. Many experts warn that one should never average down. And I would say never buy a momo stock that doesn't have options, because if it loses the momo, there just isn't any help at all.

[New-born baby]

Axr Longs

Just another note to AXR longs: today's action saw AXR fall through another support, and that signals another fall to $30 or lower. The next really substantial support is $24.

[Runner]

NB, I see possible strong weekly support on AXR around 23.15.

[New-born baby]

NB, I see possible strong weekly support on AXR around 23.15.

thanks, Runner. You are more exact in stating the support lines than I am. I appreciate it