AXR ==> The Independence Day Winner!

[casinoboy3]

well it has almost reached 15% in less than a week... you are HUGE!!

[Runner]

Yeah, that's pretty deep Runner.... http://new.wavlist.com/movies/318/pcu-laid.wav

LOL.. I think I wrote that in December 05 after kicking myself for being a knuckle head.

[lemonjello]

No offense to MM -

Anyone still holding AXR who aren't as HUGE or have as much capital cushion as MM -

Let's consider what happens to the land value per share if it's not $91/share based on a $600 million estimate, but rather $100 million based on the estimate of $100 million extracted from the company filings indicated in my post above.

Using 6.6 million shares outstanding gives a RETAIL land value per share of about $15. Somewhat less. Consider also, the market seems to be GOING DOWN, this stock seems to be GOING DOWN. The next support is around 38.50. The actual float is 1.7 million per Yahoo. It could go even lower before it stops. Didn't we just see this type of behavior with hyper earnings stocks being kicked to the curb a few weeks ago with MFLX and so on.

Good luck everyone.

[mrmarket]

Anyone still holding AXR who aren't as HUGE or have as much capital cushion as MM -

Let's consider what happens to the land value per share if it's not $91/share based on a $600 million estimate, but rather $100 million based on the estimate of $100 million extracted from the company filings indicated in my post above.

Using 6.6 million shares outstanding gives a RETAIL land value per share of about $15. Somewhat less. Consider also, the market seems to be GOING DOWN, this stock seems to be GOING DOWN. The next support is around 38.50. The actual float is 1.7 million per Yahoo. It could go even lower before it stops. Didn't we just see this type of behavior with hyper earnings stocks being kicked to the curb a few weeks ago with MFLX and so on.

Good luck everyone.

The company filings are showing the land value at "the lower of cost or market" which is the FASB standard. This company records earnings when it sells its land, because the revenue generated by the land sale exceeds the cost of the land that it holds on its books.

The point of my analysis is that the land on the balance sheet is UNDERVALUED and that is why this stock is cheap, in my opinion.

[DSteckler]

Cheap stocks can get cheaper, Ernie. Your thorough analysis is very useful if you're buying the company, a la Warren Buffet, but will be for naught if the Street votes with its feet.

You're buying the stock, not the company, and that's where chart reading and money management (stop losses) comes into play.

[mrmarket]

Cheap stocks can get cheaper, Ernie. Your thorough analysis is very useful if you're buying the company, a la Warren Buffet, but will be for naught if the Street votes with its feet.

You're buying the stock, not the company, and that's where chart reading and money management (stop losses) comes into play.

True..but ultimately a stock will reach its REAL value when the market wakes up and figures out what it is worth. A company can take itself private, buy back stock or pay special dividends to act as a catalyst.

Conversely, management can also steal from the shareholders...happens all the time.

[DSteckler]

True..but ultimately a stock will reach its REAL value when the market wakes up and figures out what it is worth.

That's nice. Meanwhile, you can lose 50%+ of your investment by the time that happens.

To buy a stock with no regard to market timing/chart reading is foolish, IMO. You're seeing that happen with this latest pic.

[DSteckler]

True..but ultimately a stock will reach its REAL value when the market wakes up and figures out what it is worth.

That's nice. Meanwhile, you can lose 50%+ of your investment by the time that happens.

To buy a stock with no regard to market timing/chart reading is foolish, IMO. You're seeing that happen with this latest pic.

[mrmarket]

That's nice. Meanwhile, you can lose 50%+ of your investment by the time that happens.

To buy a stock with no regard to market timing/chart reading is foolish, IMO. You're seeing that happen with this latest pic.

How do you explain my track record?? Foolish? Go ahead..I'm waiting.

[lalitha0]

AXR will have to gain 40% to break even!

Hi Mr. Market,
I am new to this board. I bought AXR around 50.00 and now it has lost 20%!

Do you think this will make up the 20% loss and gain another 15% in 4-6 weeks?

thanks,
lalitha

[studentofthemarket]

not a chance

Hi Mr. Market,
I am new to this board. I bought AXR around 50.00 and now it has lost 20%!

Do you think this will make up the 20% loss and gain another 15% in 4-6 weeks?

thanks,
lalitha

you're taking a vicious pounding on this stock. I'm not sure whether ernie slept through the lectures on Opportunity cost or what. But while he argues with DSteckler over his track record he's holding many positions that are under water in a HUGE way. That's money that could have been protected with a stop and redeployed in a better investment. If you have enough money you can buy any and all stocks and merely wait for them to go up. Then just sell when they do, and hold the rest forever no matter how low they go, and believe you are beating the market like a gong.

preservation of capital should be a primary concern for anybody that wants to work in the stock market. If you don't have any money you can't buy anything. I've gotten shaken out of a few stocks in the last year. Some that went on to bigger gains. WIRE and IBCA to name a couple. I didn't make as much as I might have over 17% or so on each, but I didn't lose any money either.

But given what is happening around the world right now, and think this stock is not only going to recover but then gain that much in 4-6 weeks is really wishful thinking IMHO. A wider war in the middle east is going to hurt everybody.


student

[mrmarket]

Hi Mr. Market,
I am new to this board. I bought AXR around 50.00 and now it has lost 20%!

Do you think this will make up the 20% loss and gain another 15% in 4-6 weeks?

thanks,
lalitha

Since it has lost its momentum, it would be a stretch to make my target in 4 - 6 weeks...however, I still like its valuation and am content to hold it.

Of course, what YOU do with YOUR money should be YOUR decision (no one else's)!

[mrmarket]

you're taking a vicious pounding on this stock. I'm not sure whether ernie slept through the lectures on Opportunity cost or what. But while he argues with DSteckler over his track record he's holding many positions that are under water in a HUGE way. That's money that could have been protected with a stop and redeployed in a better investment. If you have enough money you can buy any and all stocks and merely wait for them to go up. Then just sell when they do, and hold the rest forever no matter how low they go, and believe you are beating the market like a gong.

preservation of capital should be a primary concern for anybody that wants to work in the stock market. If you don't have any money you can't buy anything. I've gotten shaken out of a few stocks in the last year. Some that went on to bigger gains. WIRE and IBCA to name a couple. I didn't make as much as I might have over 17% or so on each, but I didn't lose any money either.

But given what is happening around the world right now, and think this stock is not only going to recover but then gain that much in 4-6 weeks is really wishful thinking IMHO. A wider war in the middle east is going to hurt everybody.


student

Student,

While I respect your insight, I must add that this, and my track record, has been analyzed and backtested over and over again. Many of these threads are archived in this forum.

The result has always been that since I pick stocks with sterling fundamentals, deploying stops would have resulted in me making LESS money than if I continue to hold these positions.

As far as beating the market like a gong, I have been. Haven't you been reading all of my sell emails? 81 of my last 82 trades have outperformed the S&P 500 over the same holding period...ain't nuttin wrong with dat.

[mrmarket]

PTSI was a perfect example of this...down big..came back and beat the market

I can probably name 30 others if you're interested.

[Websman]

Diversity, diversity, diversity....